Daily Times

There is no denying that when it comes to planning for at least 10-15 years ahead, no one can even come close to the Chinese.

We have seen over the last 5 years, the Chinese are investing heavily in Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar, mainly in infrastructural projects. According to experts, these investments have two fold objectives: one to give fillip to the stagnant Chinese economy by reviving their manufacturing sectors, and, secondly, to negate India’s influence in the region. There seems to be a method in madness in all their moves.

China has recently invested heavily in infrastructural projects like building roads, ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The “One belt One Road,” aims to connect China with Eurasia, covering almost 60 countries, to boost the export of steel and other products, which are facing a slowdown. The strategy underpins China’s push to take a bigger role in the global affairs. One Belt, One Road isa response to the US-centric trading arrangements, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Secondly, they are developing the Gwadar port in Pakistan, as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) plan which would act as a link between the ambitious One Belt, One Road and Maritime Silk Road projects. China is cleverly manipulating Pakistan to serve its ends. They are also investing heavily in infrastructural projects in Nepal and Bangladesh. There is also a move to link Nepal with China with a road so that they can cater to Nepal’s essential requirements and thus reducing their dependence on India.

The Chinese have also adopted an aggressive posture in the disputed Sparty islands, a disputed territory, where countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia have also staked their claim. The International Arbitration Board had passed an order rejecting the Chinese claim. The Chinese have refused to accept the judgment, and are building military bases in the group of shoals and islands, in spite of the US warnings. Recently, they illegally captured the US underwater drone in South China Sea, giving a message that they would not bow down to US pressure. The smaller countries like the Philippines and Malaysia, who earlier looked for the US assistance, are now directly negotiating with China. There is a growing feeling that US can’t be trusted because of this flip flop policies, and also not standing behind them whenever situation warranted.

China is also bullying smaller countries like Mongolia and Taiwan. Recently, when his holiness Dalai Lama, a spiritual Buddhist leader, visited Mongolia, the Mongolian government was warned that such visits would damage their ties. Mongolia simply buckled under the pressure. Similarly, they did not take kindly with the US president elect Donald Trump’s telephone call to the Taiwanese President. In fact, a prominent newspaper even advocated invading Taiwan. Their relations with Japan is also has gone from bad to worse over Senkaku Islands.

China has recently adopted a belligerent attitude against India. This is done in a subtle way by preventing India from joining the Nuclear Suppliers Group. They have also rejected India’s stand of declaring the terrorist organization Jaish-e-Mohammed founded by Masood Azhar, who was responsible for the infamous Mumbai attack, to be included in the UN list of terrorist organizations. The United States have already blacklisted the organization and supportive of India’s attempt to declare JeM as a terrorist organization. The Chinese strategy is to please their ally Pakistan, who is providing arms and training to wage a proxy war with India. There is growing evidence that India’s strong ally Russia is looking to look for a leadership role in the Middle East, Europe and Asia. It would serve their interests to form an alliance with China to achieve their objectives. One would not be surprised if by the end of the year we have a Russia-China -Pakistan and Iran axis in South Asia. This does not augur well for the future of Asia, especially the Asian countries are not confident about the United States play an assertive role in the region.

China, with the support of its ally Pakistan, has begun to assert itself in South Asia. China, along with Russia and Pakistan is trying to end the conflict in Afghanistan. Surprisingly, the affected party “Afghanistan” was left out of the recent meeting held in Moscow to explore a possible solution to end the strife there. Both China and Russia have agreed to delist ‘Taliban,’ the terrorist organization from the UN sanctions list, so that they can enlist their support in finding a peaceful resolution to the Afghan imbroglio. It was the same Taliban, with the support of Pakistan and the United States that was responsible in driving out the Russian occupied troops from Afghanistan. It is said that in politics, there are no permanent friends and enemies. The Russia’s support for the Taliban is one prime example of this. In all this development, the United States, which was responsible for getting rid of Taliban government in Afghanistan, does not find a place in the negotiations.

The growing influence of China and Russia is largely due to the incoherent foreign policy of Obama. The waning US influence has forced the East Asian countries that it would not be in their interest to take on the ascendant China. This development is largely due to the failed US “Pivot of Asia” policy which has miserably failed to contain China.

India needs to view these developments with caution. By merely relying on the United States to act to as a counterweight to China and Russia will not help. India needs to reach out to its neighbours like Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to counter the Chinese designs. There is also a growing concern about India’s lack of preparedness. The army, Navy and the Air Force don’t possess the state of the art equipments should a war erupt with China. The Indian defence minister has realized this widening gap between the two countries and has initiated several steps to modernize India’s armed forces. However, it will take at least 10 years, if India hopes to come anywhere closer to China. This assumption is based that China will not strengthen its forces in these 10 years!

If the United States, under their new President, don’t take cognizance of the growing influence of Russia and China in the region, it would be not in a position to counterbalance them. Donald Trump has already indicated that he would like to improve his ties with Russia, which may further embolden Russia in the Middle East and Asia. Some of the EU countries like France and Germany, which were once wary of Russia, have now started warming up to it as there is a growing realization that it would not be a wise policy to depend on the United States.

It is hoped that Trump is aware of the changing geopolitical landscape and takes proper measures to act as a counter balance Russia and China. The US should form an alliance with Japan, South Korea and India to counter the rise of Russia and China in the region. If he fails to act, the US will unwittingly put some of the Asian countries on a perilous path of an arms race that may affect the peace and stability in the region. Moreover, the so-called friends of the US will now have second thoughts of looking towards the US as a guarantor of peace and stability in the region. Moreover, there are indications that Trump may dump the treaty with Japan. If this happens, Japan may be forced to pursue its nuclear options to contain China, a prospect that can put countries on a perilous path.

From all available evidence, the year 2017 will see an end to the dominance of the United States and their place would be taken by China and Russia.

The writer is an independent columnist and political commentator