Daily Times

The present tension between India and Pakistan has become alarming. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the danger of full-scale war — including the use of nuclear weapons — between the two countries cannot be ruled out. In the interest of world peace and security, the international community and particularly the United Nations (UN) must intervene. The devastation as a result of such escalation will not be limited to this region alone but will engulf the entire world. In the interest of global peace, it would be appropriate that Pakistan should take the lead and call for the convening of the Security Council session to apprise the world about the gravity of the matter and to compel India to engage in dialogue with Pakistan as already proposed by our Prime Minister (PM).

A recent scientific study based on concrete facts reveals that in the event of nuclear war between India and Pakistan, as an unintended consequence the radioactive fallout will cover the entire earth within two weeks rising to the altitude of 20 to 50 miles above the Earth, where it will stay for several years. Due to the severe fall in temperature this would cause, the world’s rice, wheat and maize yields would shrink by 30 to 40 percent. This would result in global starvation and the deaths of two billion people. Eventually, temperatures could plunge below ice age conditions, meaning no crops will grow and 90 percent of the global population would starve to death within a few years. Hence, a full-scale nuclear war in even between smaller powers could spell disaster for the entire world, and perhaps even the extinction of the human race.

The horrific tragedy of America dropping two atomic bombs on Japan in August 1945 sent a wave of terror across the world which abruptly changed the traditional concept of war, and alerted all nations to avoid war at any cost.

At present, India and Pakistan are armed to the teeth with atomic warheads 70 times stronger than those dropped on Japan. The option of war is absolutely untenable because war would mean the total annihilation of mankind, leaving neither party the victor or the vanquished. At this juncture, the only option before the leadership of both countries should be in what best ways peace could be secured in this region. This is not possible unless both parties sit down and initiate dialogue, to which Pakistan agrees but India has so far not agreed.

One-sided sincerity and restraint will not work for long. If the two sides wish to contain the risk of escalation, both sides must stop firing along the LOC and the Working Boundary

It is true that the possession of nuclear weapons by both the countries has provided sufficient deterrence against a full-scale war in the past, but when tempers run high and each party resorts to threats and retaliation, the fear of atomic conflagration by any irrational act by either party could unleash hell. Other than intentional aggression, nuclear war could also be set off even by unintentional human error or cyber-attacks.

Since Indian PM Narendra Modi came into power, he has vowed to isolate Pakistan internationally and cripple its economy. His foreign policy is based on deepening India’s strategic collaboration with Afghanistan and other regional countries to isolate Pakistan. Pakistan has already paid a heavy price for using militancy as a tool for proxy wars in the region. The whole world knows that the present insurrection in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) is local and indigenous, and Pakistan has scrupulously kept itself away from the internal disturbances in the Valley. Moreover, for Pakistan’s own ongoing campaign against its internal militancy and violent extremism, it is not possible for it to open a new front in IOK. Modi should understand that no world power from outside the Valley can foment an uprising of this magnitude against the wishes of its people. The fact that the uprising by the people of Kashmir against Indian atrocities could not be quelled by the full might of India’s military and para-military forces shows that some serious wrong has been done to its people. Thus they have a right to fight against this travesty and need the moral support of the entire world, including Pakistan. If India had ever found any cogent piece of actual physical evidence for Pakistan’s involvement in this uprising, it would have cried itself hoarse and taken the matter to all world forums including the UN.

In the context of the present dispute between India and Pakistan, Modi feels that in view of his declared policy of hostility against Pakistan, he fears that notwithstanding Islamabad’s generous offer of peace and bold steps of releasing Indian pilot, if he now deviates from his usual stand, and makes a peaceful move, he would be seen as weak in India’s forthcoming elections. Thus in all probability, India’s stand on the present conflict will remain guided more by its traditional bellicose jingoism (symptomatic of Modi’s mindset) rather than any logical or rational considerations.

One-sided sincerity and restraint will not work for long. If the two sides wish to contain the risk of escalation, both sides must stop firing along the LOC and the Working Boundary. By resuming multi-dimensional talks on long-pending issues, the chances of war could be reduced and steadily eliminated.

Lastly, Pakistan should not be very keen to talk with India. PM Imran Khan’s offer of dialogue and his generosity in releasing their pilot are very good gestures to show Pakistan’s eagerness to live peacefully in the region. Any more leniency may be seen by India as Pakistan’s weakness. Pakistan should focus its energies on internal security and economic stability because without economic stability, even Kashmiris might not be too eager to join Pakistan. Kashmiris are the main stakeholders; therefore, they must be made part of any future dialogue process.

The writer is a former member of the Provincial Civil Service, and an author of Moments in Silence

Published in Daily Times, March 4^th 2019.