Daily Times

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, was slammed by an array of former diplomats and military officers for taking lightly Pakistan’s resolve to not let its airspace be used for any surgical or limited strikes.

They said this at a roundtable conference on ‘Escalation Management and Control between India and Pakistan’ organized by a thinktank, Islamabad Policy Institute (IPI), on Friday, where they reiterated that de-escalation could not be achieved through unilateral steps alone. Former Defence Secretary, Lt. Gen (Retd) Asif Yasin Malik; Advisor to Strategic Plans Division, Ambassador Zamir Akram; former Defence Minister, Lt. Gen (Retd) Naeem Lodhi; Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi and former ACDA Director General, Strategic Plans Division, Khalid Banuri spoke on the occasion.

The speakers argued that PM Modi was trying to save his face in public before de-escalating India’s ongoing crisis with Pakistan while cautioning that there could be additional Indian attempts to settle scores with Pakistan’s military forces. This could further escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, they sighed.

Returning Indian pilot built Pak’s image, won’t affect India much: ex-Defence Sec

Lt. Gen Malik believed that a climb down the ladder would be costly for Prime Minister Modi. Returning the Indian pilot was useful in building international image but, he opined, the gesture would not affect Indian calculations regarding escalating or de-escalating tensions.

Speaking about Indian-held Kashmir, Gen Malik said that over sixty per cent of the Kashmiri population was below the age of thirty-five years, which explained why the youth were more unwilling to accept Indian tyranny and occupation. “Dynamics of Kashmir is in nobody’s control, it is on auto-pilot now,” he added.

The crisis had erupted after a Kashmiri boy attacked Indian occupying forces in Indian-held Kashmir. The general sighed that, unfortunately, this attack was being used by the Indian leadership to divert the world’s attention from Kashmir issue and bolster Bharatiya Janata Party’s s re-election prospects.

With reference to the current escalation, the former Defence Secretary said that the state had to plan for both escalation and de-escalation while planning poorly for any of the two scenarios could lead to war.

Ambassador Zamir stressed the need for escalation management and control to ensure that nuclear deterrence was being maintained. He emphasized that de-escalation was only possible once both adversaries had a common interest in de-escalation, further adding that unilateral measures aimed at de-escalation would not work. He identified rationality, signalling, transparency and credibility as key factors influencing crisis management.

He stated, “Credibility of deterrence is essential for de-escalation.”

In previous crises, he recalled, Pakistan and India had exercised self-imposed restraint even when they had not tested the nuclear weapons. Now that both neighbours were nuclear powers, the diplomat maintained, the situation demanded much more care, caution and responsibility from both states as well as a greater role by the international community to timely defuse the situation.

Unilateral measures can’t de-escalate Pak-India tensions

It was asserted that the credibility of the crisis manager was critical for both sides. Helping India and Pakistan timely de-escalate the ongoing tensions was said to be a test of the US credibility as a crisis manager.

During the 1990 crisis, Robert Gates had helped diffuse the South Asian crisis. However, in the present situation, it remained to be seen whether the US was part of the problem or solution or both.

In response to a question about next possible steps towards de-escalation, the speakers said that restrictions on the individuals demanded by India and meeting some of the requirements of demarche shared by New Delhi could allow Indian political leadership to save face before its voters and de-escalate.

Former Defence Minister, Lt. Gen (Retd) Naeem Lodhi, warned that the Indian military would attempt more mischief in future and therefore, advised continued vigilance.

Khalid Banuri said that the current crisis was a test of diplomacy. Pakistani diplomats must internationally highlight the Indian violation of the UN Charter, instigating an unprovoked international armed conflict and grave violations of the UN resolutions.

Defence analyst Syed Muhammad Ali believed that Pakistan had simultaneously demonstrated resolve and capability along with restraint in its calculated use of force. Pakistan Air Force could have caused a greater surprise but restrained itself because it only aimed to dissuade India from any future misadventure, he added.

Published in Daily Times, Mach 2^nd 2019.