Daily Times

Post the Pulwama situation, the environment between India and Pakistan has deteriorated. Peace initiatives like Kartarpur ceremony which took place less than three months ago have been wiped clean by the intensity of the madness of India’s response in political, informational, diplomatic and now in kinetic domain. Historically, India’s geo political and egoistic frustration in regional and bilateral context with Pakistan was witnessed in the aftermath of the first Afghan war, which resulted in the 1986 escalation, where cricket diplomacy was used as a tool for nuclear deterrence. Twelve years later, India in its ambition to be a global power and aspiring to secure a permanent seat in UN decided to go nuclear. Had this not happened, Pakistan might have been an overt nuclear state even today. Three years later in 2001, drawing strength from the post 9/11 scenario in the backdrop of an attack on Indian parliament, forced a policy change to by implemented even a dictator like General Pervez Musharraf. Infact, Musharaf failed to effectively play the nuclear deterrence card where space for a conventional war between India and Pakistan was silently and cowardly conceded under pressure. Lacking the desired vision and the will to tackle the reality of the last 15 years, the dictator succumbed under pressure on the western border and made a mess of this which also resulted in the Mumbai attacks after six years in 2008. Pakistan further conceded this space silently for a conventional war under the label of nuclear deterrence; during, the six years of General Kayani- billions were spent to prepare Pakistan Army for a cold start response focused on the short term use of conventional means to unleash our military potential. Keeping one’s relevance was the real goal, whether it was the eastern or the western borders, where war against terrorism was being fought actively but selfishly.

Having been associated with the institution for three decades and knowing the professionalism and intellect of the few at the helm of affairs in Pakistan today, I firmly believe that we are still capable of responding even in the kinetic domain but only if we retain popular domestic public support. We can still have the element of surprise and retain control over the escalation ladder without disturbing the established deterrence in the conventional domain

In the post Pulwama scenario, Modi was discredited domestically in the political domain. As India is nearing elections, he was the first to climb the ladder of escalation by publicly and senselessly declaring Pakistan as the culprit, and assuring India of a kinetic punitive action. Resultantly, PM Imran Khan declared that,”Pakistan will not think of responding, but will respond”. Irrespective of being innocent or guilty, we climbed were forced to take part in the escalation, and forced Modi to climb the next step which was done in the late hours of Monday/Tuesday night. Why the military spokesman on Tuesday was so clear and aggressive in assuring the nation needs no explanation when viewed in terms of the area of impact rather than the point of intrusion. By claiming to surprise India at the place, time, kind and intensity of our response, we took the next step on the ladder. We now control it but for how long can we retain this control? Its very crucial. Controlling the escalation ladder is easier said than done. It is not only the function of nerves, intellect or better planning; it requires a certain power potential which depends on the quantified capability in the diplomatic, economic, military, informational, technology and geo political domains. Once we have responded as we claimed and assured the Nation for our own capability, India may regain the control of the escalation ladder. As Pakistan keeps climbing the steps, the environment will become more complex, uncertain and difficult to control. We have limited time to respond especially when a second strike of this type cannot be ruled out.

Have we entangled ourselves in Modi’s design? Will Modi succeed in inducing a response from Pakistan in the Kinetic domain? How far will Pakistan be discredited if it delays or avoids a kinetic response? Have we been surprised? If not! Why do we want to surprise a nuclear state? Should we attempt to evoke a knee jerk response from Mad Modi?

Scope for a limited conflict under nuclear deterrence orchestrated on the ‘theory of thresholds’ exists in the eyes of Modi’s adviser’s. If we lose domination over the escalation ladder and resultantly a conventional conflict is initiated, irrespective of its duration or intensity or even effects, it will seriously dent and undermine the deterrence which we have attained at the great expense of development. Once lost, it cannot be established without a heavy cost and considerable time. Will India succeed in making the world believe that strategic thinking regarding nuclear deterrence in the backdrop of a cold war is not applicable in south asia and the world needs to understand this reality. History will definitely ask the military and civil leadership of today as to why hundreds and billions of lives were wasted for glory, if we still had to fight a conventional war. I hope both political and military leadership take all these things into consideration.

Having been associated with the institution for three decades and knowing the professionalism and intellect of the few at the helm of affairs in Pakistan today, I firmly believe that we are still capable of responding even in the kinetic domain but only if we retain popular domestic public support. We can still have the element of surprise and retain control over the escalation ladder without disturbing the established deterrence in the conventional domain. Only time will tell if such professional intellect can be manifested.

The writer is a PhD scholar with diverse experience and international exposure

Published in Daily Times, March 2^nd 2019.