Daily Times

Twelve Mirage-2000 Indian Air Force (IAF) intruded into Pakistani air space in a pre-dawn adventure on February 26, 2019. India claimed that it was a preemptive non-military air strike in which the IAF targeted and destroyed alleged Jaish-e-Muhammad (JEM) training camps supposedly killing 350 terrorists. The reality is that the intrusion did take place, but once Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Air Defence interceptors were mobilised, the IAF Mirages beat a hasty retreat, jettisoning their external fuel tanks as well as four bombs. The damage on the ground was only a few trees and a minor injury to one civilian.

The mood in India was jubilant, since it claimed a victorious vengeance for the Pulwama attack. I myself appeared on a number of Indian TV Channels. In one program, full of arrogance Air Chief Marshal Tipnis, former IAF Chief and a retired Indian General were highly derogative in their comments.

I mentioned that India had spurned the Pakistani Prime Minister’s (PM) offer of investigating the Pulwama attack if actionable intelligence was available, but throwing caution to the winds, India violated Pakistani airspace. I mentioned that the government of Pakistan even summoned the National Command Authority, which weighed all options of retaliation including the nuclear one. Indian panelists asked if this was a veiled threat. My response was that it was a reality check and India should know Pakistan will keep all options open, but the onus lies on India to reign in its extremists.

The morning of February 27, 2019 brought glad tidings for Pakistan because two intruding IAF aircraft were shot down by PAF and one pilot was captured alive. This should dampen the spirits of Indian adventurism.

I received an article written by an a retired IAF fighter pilot Rajiv Tiagi after the fake surgical strike of February 26. He talks about the futility of attacking ‘terror camps’, as they do not yield any strategic enemy assets. He laments that in this case, as in many before, the Government of India has asked the Armed forces to act on its behalf and the Armed Forces have delivered, only to once again be used for the personal glorification of Narendra Modi.

The US is still geopolitically engaged in the Af-Pak region. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also firmly behind Pakistan. Thus, Modi’s miscalculation will cost India dearly

He bemoans that India has used conventional forces to strike at extremely low-value tactical targets of an adversary that uses asymmetric warfare against it. He opines that in hindsight, the Indian Government has used the Armed Forces in an ill-advised action, purely for propaganda purposes, without achieving any strategic or tactical goal, except maybe the minimally valid goal of delivering a military message to a recalcitrant adversary.

In the fog of war, propagating the execution of a preemptive non-military air strike, one needs to take cognizance of the technology employed. To carry a particular weapon load, first the nature of the target needs to be known. Is it a soft skin target, like trucks and jeeps? In which case 30 mm front guns or rockets can be used, even rockets being overkill, 30 mm armour piercing incendiary (API) cannon rounds being sufficient to completely destroy soft skinned targets. If armour is known to be present in the target area, 58 mm API rockets, released in a barrage of eight, 16 or 32 rockets per barrage, would be the choice, depending on the nature of the armour. If the target is an area, not point-targets like soft skinned vehicles or buildings but troop concentrations or buildings over a large area, bombs would be the choice. There is also the choice of guided weapons, which may either be guided by reflected modulated laser or guided by an image processing or radio guidance system, depending on whether we are targeting a designated or target of opportunity or a radio transmitter like a wireless or a radar station.

It is also imperative to assess the cost of the guided weapon vis-à-vis the target. For example, one can ill afford to target a tin shed or a tent, with TV-guided munitions unless the tin shed is known to house a tactical or strategic target of sufficient importance to use such platforms or munitions.

All Indian chest thumping, and gloating went for naught after PAF struck back with precisely calculated air strikes on predesignated targets across the Line Of Control within Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) and later shooting down two IAF fighter aircraft.

In retrospect, India attacked Pakistan without provocation and did not even deny it. It has become an aggressor and its case is ripe to be referred to the UN Security Council. Through its cozying up to the US, India has frittered away the traditional Russian UNSC veto, which had been exercised in its favour innumerable times in the past. It has invited the Chinese veto against India. US geopolitical interest still lies in Pakistan, not in India, because the Af-Pak region is still a US geopolitical engagement. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also firmly behind Pakistan. Thus, Modi’s miscalculation will cost India dearly.

The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China

Published in Daily Times, March 2^nd 2019.