Daily Times

The theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans do not exist. Juvenal’s phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers. In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent. However, in 1697, Dutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swans, in Western Australia. The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. In the 19th century, John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification. Black swan events were discussed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. His 2007 book The Black Swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments as “black swans”-undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the September 11, 2001, attacks as examples of black swan events.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan has given a befitting response to Indian allegations. While the UNO, US and other important countries have not supported India’s current allegations and are trying to diffuse the foolhardy tension created by Modi and his hawks, even the thought of an open conflict between the two nuclear powers is considered madness beyond measure

Since early 90s, capitalizing on her large diaspora and ingress in international media and think tanks, India has shown commendable improvement in her international image by picking up Western ideas and mimicking every aspect of their life i.e. dress, food, dance, music, movies, print and electronic media, language, technology, military and more importantly her Deep State’s capability to launch independent or joint clandestine operations. That has given India a false sense of importance, adding to her disproportionate obduracy that only serves outdated Hindutva doctrine of Maha Bharat or greater India callously followed by ruling extremist party BJP with its militant wing RSS; nevertheless, to the dismay of greater majority and millions of minorities that stand bewildered in the face of the crumbling image of secular democratic India. Indian media continues to malign her minorities and smaller neighbouring countries in order to put a blanket on her persecution of minorities (particularly Muslims, Sikhs, Christians). In the background of 9/11 incident in New York in 2001, Indian intelligence agencies were ultra quick to pick up the idea as they do for Hollywood movies, and soon started indulging in arranging mini Black Swan/ stage managed events of sabotage and espionage in her own country like Samjhota Express burning, attack on parliament, Mumbai attack on a hotel, Pathankot base attack and more recently Pulwama Fidayeen ( suicide) attack on a convoy of paramilitary force by a Kashmiri freedom fighter who reportedly was already under custody of Indian Intelligence. Although no solid evidence was ever made public, within seconds the blame was put on Pakistan despite Indian own investigations later on pointing out towards either stage managed operations or indigenous retaliatory action by centrifugal forces. Ironically, far greater and repeated espionage operations in Pakistan with clear evidence of Indian hand resulting in killing of hundreds and thousands of innocent civilians and paramilitary forces seldom got coverage or due condemnation by international media and community, thanks to Indian domination of electronic and print media and consequent successful propaganda, which must be making Chanakya Kautilya proud and Goebbels turn in their graves.

Many analysts all over the world including even some Indians had predicted months ago the likelihood of a mini Black Swan operation before Indian state elections, as heightened tension along Pakistan-India borders and such cowardly incidents always serve sitting government in India to get more votes. But the Pulwama incident was timed well to serve India in multiple ways i.e. to sabotage the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) visit to Pakistan on 18 Feb and if that did not work, exploit the same during his subsequent visit to India. Conversely, such an incident by just its timings alone is highly against Pakistan’s interest from all angles. After MBS’ visit and the useful investment of US $ 20 Billion plus, followed by subsequent visits by Turkish and Malaysian heads of states; besides Russia’s prospective investment in Pakistan is not only getting Pakistan on the long awaited road to economic prosperity but also greatly improving Pakistan’s diplomatic relevance, which obviously will contribute in furthering geo-strategic importance, security and compliment Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, Indus Water and other lingering disputes with India at UNO as well as on all other international forums.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan has given a befitting response to Indian allegations. While the UNO, US and other important countries have not supported India’s current allegations and are trying to diffuse the foolhardy tension created by Modi and his hawks, even the thought of an open conflict between the two nuclear powers is considered madness beyond measure. It is time for India’s politically aware masses to choose the right party and better leadership for themselves in the forthcoming state elections that can live and let live all its neighbours as well as provide solace to the badly mal-treated minorities.

The writer is a retired senior Army officer with rich experience in Military & Intelligence Diplomacy

Published in Daily Times, February 24^th 2019.