Daily Times

It appears likely that once again Afghanistan’s fate is going to be left to the tender mercies of the Taliban. President Trump’s decision to cut and run from the war-torn country-by withdrawing US troops who are the primary obstacle to an eventual Taliban victory-can only accelerate this outcome. As so often witnessed in international politics, it appears that in Afghanistan realpolitik will prevail over human considerations. The Afghan people certainly deserve peace after 40 years of war. The question is at what cost?

The Afghan war has claimed over two million lives since the Soviet invasion in 1979 and the civil war that followed the Soviet withdrawal, including an estimated 100,000 people since 2001, when the US drove the previous Taliban regime from power. Afghans have experienced the brutal effects of assassinations, bombings, unexploded mines, and life as refugees. Hospitals in the country are treating large numbers of war wounded, including amputees, burn victims and those with mental health problems. Other war effects include high rates of disease due to lack of clean drinking water, malnutrition, and reduced access to health care.

The US, understandably tired of war is ready to make a deal with the devil, to end its costly 18-year old intervention in Afghanistan. Another example of US overreach and folly, the Afghan war intended to punish the perpetrators and facilitators of 9/11 didn’t have clear goals or objectives. The US strategy has oscillated between pursuing military victory, combined with nation-building and attempts at military containment and peace talks.

Pakistan is held responsible for the excesses committed by the Taliban that have added to the misery of the Afghan people. It must work hard to change this perception by denying the Taliban the logistical and financial support that it is allegedly providing

In any case, despite a possible ‘peace’ deal between the US and the Taliban, prospects for permanent peace in Afghanistan remain bleak. The much-touted Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process is a non-starter. Furthermore, military pressure and confidence-building measures haven’t softened the Taliban enough, as they refuse to talk to the Kabul government. The Taliban feel that they can afford to play the wait-and-see game and refuse to negotiate with the government, anticipating its collapse once the US and NATO forces leave.

There is no guarantee that the vicious cycle of violence won’t continue after the anticipated US withdrawal. The other factor is that in the absence of US troops, the balance of power and the military status quo will shift decisively in favour of the Taliban. Regrettably, Afghan politics remains bedevilled by warlords and tribal enmity. Moreover, society suffers from vices like gender discrimination, disregard for education and religious extremism. These conditions allow the obscurantist ideology of the Taliban to prosper.

A peace deal with the US means both an ideological and a military victory for the Taliban. The Taliban underpinned by a hard-line ideology haven’t given up their quest to re-establish the Islamic emirate in Afghanistan. In spite of recent attempts at an image makeover, the Taliban are unlikely to renounce their objective of regaining political power and territorial control. According to them, an inclusive system will replace the ‘imported’ democracy.  Sharing political power in a democratic system is anathema to them.

The National Unity Government led by Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah appears weak. It suffers from allegations of corruption, incompetence and can’t get rid of the tag of being a US ‘puppet’. The government represents the interests of Afghanistan’s other national groups such as the Uzbek, Tajik, Hazara, previously under the umbrella of the Northern Alliance, and some anti-Taliban Pakhtuns groups. In case of a deal with the Taliban, the Afghan government could end up the main loser.

Many Afghans dread a return to harsh Taliban rule, despite the shortcomings of the Kabul government. Women’s rights, freedom of expression, education and democratic values have made some progress. These are achievements that the Taliban do not share. During the previous Taliban rule, women, girls, and even boys faced impediments to getting schooling, contributing to public life, and having access to sports and music. It is imperative, therefore, that all interested parties do more before handing the country over to the Taliban on a platter.

The divergent goals and objectives of the warring parties and the external players involved in the conflict, particularly Pakistan, is the principal reason that peace is elusive in Afghanistan. Pakistan is held responsible for the excesses committed by the Taliban that have added to the misery of the Afghan people. It must work hard to change this perception by denying the Taliban the logistical and financial support that it is allegedly providing. Pakistan must also reconsider the view that the Taliban are a useful hedge in a post-US Afghanistan. It must genuinely agree to act against the common threat emanating from the network of like-minded terrorist groups in the region.

Overall, the Taliban must give up their dream of dominating Afghanistan. If they refuse, they should face the full military might of the international community. The only plausible way out of the Afghan quagmire is that political reforms in Afghanistan grant a greater voice to a broader range of interests, such as local and provincial leaders including women, political parties, and parliament. The government, with or without the Taliban, requires a broader base of political support and institutions that can deliver for the people.

The writer is a freelance contributor

Published in Daily Times, February 9^th 2019.