Daily Times

Russia is, once again, flexing its muscles to regain a foothold in the Afghan endgame by hosting a series of talks aimed to increase its political clout. The upcoming two-day dialogue being held in Moscow on Tuesday is one such conference. Noticeably, only representatives from the Afghan Taliban and critics of President Ashraf Ghani have been invited to attend. This seems to be an apparent snub of the Kabul regime which clearly implies that the Russians wish to come up with their own parallel solution to the prolonged quagmire. This is further endorsed by the fact that the dialogue would be hosted at The President Hotel, a Kremlin-owned hotel in Moscow.

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian presidential envoy on Afghan affairs, has already made a day trip to Islamabad recently. His talks with Pakistani diplomats were likely aimed to secure Moscow’s influence in light of the hectic shuttle diplomacy initiated by Zalmay Khalilzad, the United States’ (US) Special Representative on Afghanistan. Though the previous Moscow talks during November 2018 resulted in an impasse, despite the presence of several state and non-state stakeholders, the Russians seem confident in their political endeavours.

Similarly, Khalilzad has also remained in regular touch with regional stakeholders and managed to come up with a draft agreement with the Afghan Taliban’s Doha office for ending one of the longest wars in recent memory. This agreement, brokered through Pakistan’s efforts, is of high significance since it essentially results in troops withdrawal within the next two years. Moreover, it also includes a personal guarantee by the Taliban of preventing to host terrorist groups on Afghan soil.

Khalilzad has also remained in regular touch with regional stakeholders and managed to come up with a draft agreement with the Afghan Taliban’s Doha office for ending one of the longest wars in recent memory. This agreement, brokered through Pakistan’s efforts, is of high significance since it essentially results in troops withdrawal within the next two years. Moreover, it also includes a personal guarantee by the Taliban of preventing to host terrorist groups on Afghan soil

Ironically, New Delhi has also shown interest in talks with the Taliban -their longtime foes- but then again it doesn’t have any other option left.

Evidently, there’s a valid reason to why the Ghani administration has been largely excluded from key talks initiated by Washington DC and Moscow. Afghanistan is largely controlled by the Taliban, and the Kabul regime is confined to cantonments and diplomatic quarters. All major players in the region are aware of the fact that the road to peace lies through a concrete dialogue with the Taliban, and the US has broken the ice by engaging with them.

President Ghani is also fearful of the fact that the US-Taliban’s draft agreement and the political interest being shown by the Kremlin would corner his regime to such an extent that the next regime may be akin to a national government, comprising of both moderate elements and Taliban representatives.

This won’t go down well with hawkish elements who will try their level best to sabotage such steps.

Militancy is still a key impediment to any concrete outcome which has become a bane to regional and global powers. Not mentioning the warring Afghan warlords who will avail every opportunity to pander for their own vested interests. Remember the horrific aftermath of the 1988, Geneva Accords when everyone left the Afghan theatre suddenly? This is what needs to be prevented this time around, for the world cannot afford history to repeat itself.

The draft agreement can be considered a major exploratory option, but it may not have a smooth ride ahead given the complexities of the political tensions brewing.

With Pakistan and the US on the same side when it comes to ending the war in Afghanistan, there’s not much choice left for the Kabul regime. Of course, Moscow will remain in the limelight since its influence cannot be side-lined given how much it has politically invested in the region.

There has to be a converging point where everyone comes onboard on a mutually agreed agenda that will not only help attain peace but also promote economic integration and societal progression.

Published in Daily Times, February 5^th 2019.