Daily Times

In conversation with Michael Kugelman, the Deputy Director of the Asian Program and Senior Associate for South Asia at the esteemed Wilson Center. He is a contributor for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal blog, CNN and Aljazeera. Learn more about Michael and his political views as he engages with Haider Rifaat in a constructive dialogue.

The United States is incredibly divided under Donald Trump’s administration. Why do you think that is?

America was actually incredibly divided before Trump assumed office. Two fractious parties dominate US politics, and long standing battles between Republicans and Democrats had sharpened in the years leading to his electoral triumph. President Obama, despite valiant efforts to bring the country together, presided over an increasingly polarized political environment. It grew further polarized during the 2016 presidential campaign, which pitted two of the most divisive political figures in US history, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump against each other. It was a profoundly bitter and brutal campaign.

Today we have a historically polarizing president leading America at a moment when the country is experiencing one of its most divided periods in years-perhaps not since the late 1960s has it been like this. Trump’s tendency to take strong positions on divisive issues like race, immigration, and health care has exacerbated the cleavages. Meanwhile, powerful and partisan media outlets-think Fox News on the right and MSNBC on the left-strengthen this divisive dynamic. It is a perfect storm for toxic politics.

In your view, will Americans re-elect Donald Trump for the second term?

If recent history is any guide, Trump is poised for re-election. Not since 1992 has an incumbent US president not won a second term but past isn’t necessary prologue for a president as unpredictable as him. Ultimately, two key factors will determine his political future.

First, if the ongoing Mueller investigation finds a smoking gun pointing to Trump’s collusion with the Russians, his political fortunes could suffer a major blow. He is plagued by numerous scandals, but it is the Russia collusion issue that could be most politically damaging. Since the Republicans control the Senate, impeachment is unlikely. However, despite impeachment, a damning Mueller report could doom his re-election prospects.

Second, to defeat Trump in 2020, there will need to be a formidable Democratic challenger. I define “formidable” here as a relatively centrist yet highly prominent and incorruptible figure that commands respect across the Democratic Party and across the aisle too. So far, most of the declared Democratic presidential candidates come from the party’s left wing, and that just won’t cut it.

Who do you see as the frontrunner in the anticipated US 2020 election race?

I have long thought the candidate with the best chance of unseating Trump would be Joe Biden, the former vice president who hasn’t yet thrown his hat in the ring. Biden is a popular and respected figure whose relatively moderate political views could attract support from across the party, from independents, and most importantly from disenchanted Trump voters. I would view Biden as the 2020 election frontrunner if he decides to run. Otherwise, I see no clear favourite at such an early point.

The current and longest government shutdown in US history has affected a majority of low-income earners, FDA workers and their families. Is disputing a wall for border security worth jeopardizing nearly a million lives, especially Americans who are already paid less than average on an annual basis?

Clearly, it is not. It is a travesty, and the sad reality is that the world’s sole superpower has effectively shut down, plunging thousands of Americans into serious economic distress. The driving force behind all this is Trump’s desire to placate an increasingly restless political base. For him, building a border wall has been a promise from the start and he does not want to let down his rank, especially with an increasingly political and vulnerable leader facing re-election in less than two years.

What Trump has either not realized or chosen to overlook is that the very rank and file he is trying to appease is among the 800,000 US federal workers that haven’t received their paychecks. As a result, he may end up losing more supporters. The shutdown won’t last forever, but it may take a major crisis event; air traffic controllers going on strike, airports closing down, the shuttering of unfunded US federal courts, unpaid law enforcement workers not showing up for work and contributing to a major security breach that jolts the president and Congress into working out a deal.

Donald Trump specifically campaigned on economy during his presidential run. In light of what is happening today, has he contradicted his stance?

I do think Trump genuinely wants to bring more economic stability to those, particularly in middle America, that have been left behind. Many voted for him for that very reason. One of his most signature policies, protectionism is meant to create more jobs in the United States. The problem is that many of his policies from cutting back on healthcare benefits to his refusal to end the government shutdown have exacerbated more than improved economic challenges. It is actually quite remarkable that the US economy continues to be as strong as it is, despite these problematic policies.

In recent years, what has caused immense conflict between the Republicans and the Democrats?

With its two-party political system, America is hard-wired for partisan conflict. The two parties have been at odds, and often bitterly so over different types of policy and cultural issues for decades and beyond. The tension points today to race relations, immigration, health care, the use of military force and so on. These are not new challenges but they have intensified because of a president who has taken strong, unorthodox, and frequently politically incorrect positions on such issues. In fact, it is Trump himself who has become the greatest source of partisan conflict. The Democrats accuse the Republicans of tolerating his policies and excesses too generously, and the Republicans push back in different ways.

What is the Republican Party doing wrong?

At a moment of great political crisis, it is not right to fixate only on one party. The Republicans, in my view, have not gone far enough to rein in the problematic policies and moves of the president. However, the Democrats, with an eye toward the 2020 election, have been obstructionist and uncompromising in their own ways.

Blame is on the doorsteps of both parties. To be sure, there are also party mavericks on both sides that have sought to move beyond the polarization and extend an olive branch to the other side. These reasonable voices are lonely and often drowned out.

From a psychological standpoint, is Donald Trump egotistical in his approach to making presidential decisions and has that halted necessary progress?

I am no psychologist, and it is hard to know exactly what makes Trump tick. That said, my sense is that he wants to run the country like he runs his businesses: He is the boss, the only boss, and his job revolves around protecting his interests and those of his closest confidants at all costs. Yet, if he really does think of the US presidency as a business venture of sorts then he is clearly not using the right tactics. His deal-making performance and ability to win new friends (with the exception of unsavoury characters like a North Korean dictator) are often questionable, and his brand has seemingly suffered in a big way. One sometimes gets the impression that Trump views his presidency as one big reality show, which is an effort to entertain above all.

As a Muslim born in the United States, I have witnessed cultural diversity and tolerance for every race. What changed?

I would actually argue that despite all that we are seeing play out across the United States today, the country largely remains a diverse and tolerant place. To be sure, there has always been racism and discrimination in America, and it is institutionalized as seen by how people of colour suffer disproportionately from police brutality and draconian legal decisions. It can’t be denied that it has worsened with time.

President Trump’s frequent refusal to call out intolerance and bigotry, and his tendency to resort to overtly discriminatory language has emboldened American bigots. The increase in hate crimes in America not to mention the increasing prominence of white nationalists can be attributed in no small part to the president’s own messaging. It is quite concerning that fringe views are threatening to go mainstream.

Still, a reality check is in order. For all those in America that engage in bigotry, many more condemn it. Americans have pushed back against the bigotry, and in a big way. For me, one of the most heart warming images over the last few years was the large crowds of people that converged on US airports to protest the Trump administration’s abrupt decision to ban people from several Muslim-majority countries from travelling to America. Overall, minority communities in America have it much better than other countries of the world. They can count on the support of many if not most of their fellow Americans.

Why has immigration become less about the issue itself and more about racism?

It is because the hard right, emboldened by the Trump administration’s recurrent discriminatory messaging and increased power of conservative US media, has become more prominent in American politics and public discourse. It has been able to push its views on immigration, which tend to be racist, into the mainstream. The good news is that despite an ascendant far right, many Americans revile such views and are trying to push back against them, in hopes that US immigration policy will be more humane and responsible. This certainly exacerbates the deep divides in US politics and amplifies the fact that voices of reason and tolerance remain strong and engaged in America.

Considering your prime focus on South Asia, how would you summarize Pakistan and the United States present relationship?

The US-Pakistan relation stands at a pivotal point. For all the Trump administration’s bluster about taking a harder line on Pakistan, and the talk of the relationship being in deep crisis, Washington and Islamabad are faced with one of their biggest opportunities in years. America tends to view Pakistan through the lens of Kabul, as it fittingly relates to Afghanistan. With Washington, and the entire US foreign policy machine, all in one launching talks with the Taliban, the US and Pakistan are now on the same page.

If Islamabad can help convince the Taliban to agree to formal talks, and especially if it can convince the insurgents to open negotiations with Kabul, the US-Pakistan relations could enjoy a renaissance. Of course, these are big ‘ifs.’ Ultimately, if talks are not initiated, or if they are launched but fail to result in a deal, and if Washington perceives that Islamabad was an obstacle or otherwise helpful, then the bilateral relationship would suffer a fresh blow. The bottom line? The Pak-US relationship has reached an inflection point and its immediate trajectory will shape in great part by the fate of prospective peace talks in Afghanistan.

Published in Daily Times, February 2^nd 2019.