Daily Times

Ceasefire in the Syrian civil war commenced from end of December last year. The ceasefire arranged by Turkey and Russia, is between the Syrian government and the several proxy groups fighting against President Bashar al Assad and was announced after the victory in Allepo by the Syrian army in December 2016. The ceasefireis in a civil war that has raged in Syria since 2011, which started as a seemingly prodemocracy movement of Arab Spring in Syria. In the six year inconclusive continuous war 400,000 Syrians have lost their lives, an uncounted number injured, ten million are internally displacedand six million are refugees in Jordan, Turkey and many escaped to Europe. Almost all the cities in Syria are in ruins and the economy in a state of disarray, a damage that might take decades to be repaired, that only will only be possible if once peace prevails. Unfortunately a possibility of a peace seems remote because of entangled alliances in the Syrian civil war.

The six years of war in Syria saw the rise of the Islamic State group (IS), the continuing war in Syria given the IS an opportunity to form bases in Syria, and launch operations for recruitment and form a net for global terrorism. The presence of IS makes the ceasefire fragile, the repeated attacks claimed by IS in Syria and Turkey are an indication that IS has to be reckoned in the Syrian war. In the present circumstances the chances to ‘decimate’ IS in Syria are dim. If recent history can be any guiding principle, terror organizations thrive in a state of lawlessness, poor human records, corruption of the rulers, poor economic conditions and devious methods of rulers to maintain their grip on power.

There are serious dangers and challenges due to the situation in Syria, which will disturb peace across many countries as abundant reasons exist to make the ceasefire fragile. Main damage to the ceasefire will be from the Islamic State group (IS) and Jabhat Al Nusra, that cannot be covered by the ceasefire. Thecontinuing recent multipronged attack by thousands of fighters of IS on the besieged city of Deir el-Zour in Syria in which 150 people lost their lives, manifests strength of ths group.

Then there are the proxy rebel groups supported by some regional countries for their share of influence in Syria. These proxy rebel groups and IS are likely to fight for keeping some strategic gains like holding on toWadiBarada which is the main water supply to the five million people of Damascus. A battle for control of WadiBarada has resulted in loss of life of 50 people recently. It is to be seen if the ceasefire will hold on for any appreciable time period. The rebel groups and the Syrian governmentwill hold peace talks shortly in Astana Kazakhstan.

Those countries that supported the Syrian Spring in 2011 acted in a manner rather oblivious to the consequences of financing a civil war in the Middle East. Situation in the dictatorial Syria was already giving rise to extremist organizations because of the consequence of the US and Britain invasion of Iraq in 2003. Hence in 2003 and again in 2011 grave strategic miscalculations by countries both in the West and the Middle East are a significant cause of the continuing Syrian crisis. It is quite incomprehensible to understand a strategy so faulty and damaging. The alarming aspect is that the wars are nowhere approaching to a conclusion in the near future. The recentvictories against IS in Mosul, Iraq and Syriawere hard won, but IS still maintains a significant presence to organize itself in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond into Afghanistan and Europe.

The present state of chaos in Syria and in Iraq and North Africa has defied solutions.The strategy of ousting dictators by use of military force in 2003 in the Middle East and then in Libya and Yemen has resulted in the present deadly wars.Massive military deployment by the US and Britain during invasion of Iraq in 2003 unfortunately worsened the already fragilerepressive situation in the Middle East and North Africa. This became an occasion for the extreme militant organizations to organize resistance against the fragile dictatorial governments, leading to more chaos. Gradually the resistance to US forces in Iraq resulted in rise of the IS, appearing on the global map in June 2014 when it defeated the Iraqi army, and then rapidly occupied large areas in the chaos stricken Iraq and Syria. A 60 nation US led coalition was formed in September 2014 to oust the IS, yet the successes are far too little as compared to the challenge.

It might be a misplaced expectation to think that the present events leading to a ceasefire in Syria will ‘decimate’ the IS. The war has left most of major Syrian cities in ruins, the economy is unresponsive and the infrastructure is non-existent. The situation of Allepo, once the major trading centre of Syria is pathetic. In Syria IS still occupies large territory besides has areas of influence in parts of Syria. It is still in a position to challenge and even defeat the Syrian army in a battlefield, IS retains significant capability to regroup and attack. Two days after the Syrian army gained control of Allepo from the rebel factions in December, the Syria army lost Palmyra to IS, in fact there was little resistance by the Syrian army to an estimated 4000 fighters from the IS group. In May last year, it was in Palmyra that a Russian orchestra played to celebrate the Syrian troop’s capture of the ancient city of Palmyra from IS. The official concert team comprised members from MarlinskyOrchestra from St Petersburg and Sergei Roldugindirector of St Petersburg’s House of Music. The composition of the orchestra showed the significance, Russia officially attached to recapture of Palmyra and to give a sense of permanence to the victory of Syrian army. Six months after the victory orchestra IShas again managed to recapture Palmyra.

The social cost of the war in Syria is immense. Almost the entire population in Syria has suffered a mental trauma, leading to social consequences upon the society. The majority of the victims of mental trauma might not be able to access any treatmentor any worthwhile help, and will suffer for long years.

The ceasefire is a major breakthrough in the Syrian conflict, yet the end to the conflict and a peaceful Syria is a dim prospect in the foreseeable future, the physical destruction, social and mental trauma to the population left by the Syrian civil war is of historical proportions. Before there is any talk of rebuilding Syria, there is the complex issue of a future political set up, the future of President Bashar Al Assad. It is difficult to predict if the countries that are financing proxy groups since 2011, will rethink about their position in Syria. At the moment it seems there are difficult long days ahead for Syria with many consequences globally.

Humayun Shafi a former member of police service of Pakistan. Can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com