Daily Times

Should we repeat that Donald Trump is the most unpredictable individual entering the Capitol Hill? That nobody knows how he will run the country or behave as its president? And despite being written about probably much more than any other previous president between his election and entering the office, nobody could say with confidence where does he ideologically stand and what policies he is going to pursue domestically and internationally? May be we shouldn’t. May be, he himself is more confused than any of his analysts.

So, let’s start with the past and try to understand what helped him become the most powerful man in the world. This may help us to peep into the probable future.

The first and last question that everybody started asking and everybody started attempting to answer around the world was; what are the reasons behind the Americans electing him as their leader despite his personal shortcomings? And it led to further questions; was it white supremacy? Was it economic inequality? Was it the failure of democracy as a form of government? Or the concept of liberal democracy? Was it free market economy? Globalization?And the uncertainty that both these phenomenon brought with them? Or was it Islamobhobia or ‘radical Islamic terrorism’, which Trump himself likes to call?

The fact of the matter is that when all these things got together, we got Trump.

The most frequently asked question that confronted the academia and analysts around the world was; is Trump’s election a sign of decay or improvement of the American political system? Answer to it was a paradox; if on the one hand it showed people’s frustration with the political status quo – the system – it also demonstrated the capacity of the democracy as a system to give voice to the man on the street and reclaim his right to rule himself the way he wanted.

To begin with, Trump’s nomination was itself the beginning of the end. It was a defeat of the so-called ‘elite’ or the ‘Establishment’, whatever one may like to name it. His forceful entry into the presidential race from the Republican side – despite internal disapproval – and the strong opposition that Hillary Clinton faced from Bernie Sanders – against the policy and wishes of the party – proved like revolts within both the mainstream parties against the ‘system’.

The problems and deficiencies in the ‘system’ were many. With the downfall of the communist Soviet Union, the free market triumphed. Free market and free trade – though having many advantages – brought pitfalls of its own; inequitable distribution of wealth and falling incomes of the working class. Coupled with globalization and automation, the free market and free trade played havoc with local job markets and the lives of white working class not only in the US but most of the western societies.

The dilemma, however, was that the system didn’t respond in a way that could end this ‘American carnage’, as Trump described it in his inaugural speech. And the reasons for this were; 1) coming into being of ‘elites’ within the parties and the system and the coming of decision-making solely into their hands, and 2) divergent interests of the elite and the common/working class. Besides these immediate reasons, the genetic defects of the democratic order to timely address and redress issues, played its unfelt role in bringing the situation to where it is now.

But there were two inherent strings attached to the concept of democracy; one, the free market and two, liberalism. Neither of them were integral part of democracy per se. But both of them were made so over time. While the one resulted in unchecked globalization of economy, the other not only restrained it to adequately and befittingly respond to outside challenges but burdened it with spreading its ideology. Democratic societies of the west took it upon themselves to ‘internationalize’ liberal values along with ‘democracy’. And that converted globalization (economic and social) to globalism (ideological and political).

Globalism put unbearable pressure on western democracies, led by USA, just the way communism overburdened former Soviet Union – economically and militarily – to export its political values. This made these democratic societies world powers but their people had to bear the brunt of it. Trump wasn’t off the mark when he pointed to insecure national borders, a prosperous political class and a citizenry paying through their nose for all this. Finding no other way out, the masses turned to ‘outsiders’ for solutions.

However, the questions now are: 1) Can the populist crusaders bring about the desired/needed change? 2) Do they have right solutions to the problems they themselves have identified? 3) Will the ways they suggest lead these societies to the right path?

Unfortunately, this is not likely to be so. One, because they are confused – at times, self-contradictory – themselves. Two, their solutions are shortsighted and counter-productive. Three, they are more rhetorical than pragmatic.

Mr Trump is a manifestation of all these contradictions and confusion. He says he will protect only American borders. But in the same breath declares that he will wipe out ‘radical Islamic terrorism’ from the face of the ‘whole’ earth. Giving an isolationist and self-confining message, he again pledges to unite the world against the common threat; abandoning the global leadership role yet not abandoning it.

‘This is not the transfer of power from one administration to another or from one party to another. This is the transfer of power from Washington DC to the people’, is nothing more than pure rhetoric just like the ‘American carnage stops right here, right now’. But one thing must be clear to everyone; he is a pragmatic businessman. He is tough. And he will mean business. He may be lacking in political wisdom. And he may be acting as nincompoop. But he is not at all.

It is strange that he projected himself as a foolish, whimsical man. But he may deliver things which the people need – if only some of them. The long-term costs for society and democracy or existing international order is none of his business.

US internal political dynamics, global leadership role, the probable Soviet-US rapprochement and possible Sino-US trade war, ban on immigrants, wall on borders, role in the Middle East, disengagement from external disputes, threat from radical Islamic terrorism, end to globalization and environmental protection and much more are now the problems that he is going to address with all his trademark confusion and populist outcry.

So, open sesame. And let’s enter with him into this most unpredictable phase of American and world history and see if we can remember the magic words and get out when the time comes.

Let’s see.

The writer is an independent columnist and political analyst associated with a Pashto TV news channel. He is also a visiting faculty member at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. He can be reached at sethisaleem1@gmail.com