Daily Times

United States diplomats and Taliban representatives met in the United Arab Emirates on Monday, 17 December 2018 for talks facilitated by Pakistan on finding a negotiated settlement of the war in Afghanistan. The meeting in Abu Dhabi was also attended by officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Pakistan had arranged the meeting after receiving a request from US President Donald Trump for help in the peace process a fortnight ago. It was the third meeting between the Taliban and US officials since the appointment of Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad as US special envoy for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. Their meeting last month continued for three days and the current meeting is also likely to continue for the same period. It is believed that the latest meeting was convened outside Qatar to underscore Pakistan’s role in arranging it and at the same time allowing participation of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both of whom had last year cut diplomatic ties with Doha. Although, the Afghan Government is desperately trying to project through media that proximity talks with Taliban are underway at UAE and the US is coordinating the dialogue, yet the Afghan government was not represented at Monday and Tuesday meetings because Taliban have stood firmly on not talking to the Afghan government, whom they call the puppet regime, and insisted on talking directly to the US. The Afghan government, however, held consultations with the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE a day before the talks with Taliban. Nevertheless, like all other countries, Kabul, despite not getting a seat at the talks, is seeing the process positively, terming it with usual malice as US brokered effort instead of Pakistan.

Although, the Afghan Government is desperately trying to project through media that proximity talks with Taliban are underway at UAE and the US is coordinating the dialogue, yet the Afghan government was not represented at Monday and Tuesday meetings because Taliban have stood firmly on not talking to the Afghan government, whom they call the puppet regime, and insisted on talking directly to the US

For Pakistan, it has taken a lot of sincere efforts to time and again bring Afghan Taliban horse to the water, which in the past was made to run away twice by announcing Mullah Umar’s death and second time killing Mullah Akhtar Mansoor at the eleventh hour that made the peace efforts go in waste and allowing more Pakistan bashing. Since American and Pakistan’s media including official statements are attaching a lot of hope to a breakthrough to bring back peace in Afghanistan after almost four decades, I will like to analyze the prospects of peace in Afghanistan in the light of some of my previous articles on the subject However, I am constrained to repeat excerpts from one piece published on Tuesday 16 October 2018 with the title “Afghan Conundrum: What at best can Pakistan Do? Bring the Horse to the Water!”

“During the recent interaction between Pakistan Foreign Minister and US’ Secretary of State Pompeo, the wishes expressed by the US side were not different from what has consistently been demanded in the last over a decade. However, the tone this time was re-conciliatory due to multiple reasons but perhaps having seen the futility and pitfalls of applying maximum pressure on Pakistan was predominant explanation; besides diminutive effects created by exercising all other options by USA to find an amicable solution in Afghanistan. The fundamental raison d’être for 17 years long imbroglio is the strategic miscalculation that made US to believe that they could prevail in Afghanistan in a quick fix based on superior military, economic and technological might including available allied countries, but in vain.

Needless to say that Pakistan despite winning the War against terror on its own territory including against numerous proxies launched by hostile countries at enormous human, economic and above all socio-psycho cost, has remained a whipping boy for the US to cover up her strategic blunders that continued to multiply one after the other. Pakistan’s successes vis-à-vis US and allies’ failure has given them a sense of envy, in addition bringing politicians, military commanders and intelligence community under tremendous pressure at home due to the unbearable human and economic cost as if red faces alone weren’t enough.

The situation in Afghanistan is the product of a mix of so many contradictions in US policies and strategies applied, besides competing strategic interest of big regional players. Pakistan being a direct sufferer of instability in Afghanistan has been making sincere efforts from the beginning to bring around peace, which in the face of the above stated paradoxical factors did not see full realisation, and the becoming victim of intense propaganda campaign coupled with undue political, diplomatic and economic pressure. As a matter of fact, Pakistan has been subjected to 5th generation warfare, which is being contested by the brave battle hardened Armed Forces and most resilient people of Pakistan. US has tried almost all other options sans Pakistan to achieve its envisaged goals in Afghanistan, but all in vain. However, it is satisfying to see the US finally adopting a re-conciliatory approach in the recent meetings but the success lies in not repeating the same old experiments and hoping to achieve different results.

Regional peace in Central Asia and South Asia will remain hostage to the great power plays in Afghanistan and the Indian greed hidden in their Hindutva doctrine followed by the BJP Government.

Moreover, the current Taliban engagement in UAE once again duly facilitated by Pakistan therefore must not result in us being overly optimistic at home and abroad as higher the hopes, the greater is the disappointment…with obvious pitfalls and backlash. There are a lot of slips between the cup and lips when it comes to finding a durable solution to Afghan conundrum. As long as the major and real stakeholders in this imbroglio i.e. America, Afghan Taliban, and Afghan Government do not agree to compromise on their well known stances, demands and aspirations, and main players in the new Great Game do not reconcile, all efforts by Pakistan remain subject to a number of challenges. Moreover, regional proxies need to stop and all regional stakeholders need to sit on a round table to play a positive role while safeguarding their respective interests. Above all, Afghan Warlords, drug barons, smuggling mafias, installed government and warring factions need to stop exploiting the world and their neighbours and be sincere to their own country and the suffering masses.

Saleem Qamar Butt, SI (M) is a retired senior Army officer with rich experience in Military & Intelligence Diplomacy and Strategic Analysis. (sqbutt61@gmail.com)

Published in Daily Times, December 22^nd 2018.