Daily Times

Vladimir Putin is, seemingly, the hidden hand behind Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s official visit to war-torn Syria this week. Thereby underscoring once more how he may well be smarter than the average western leader.

This is an important trip. Not least because when the conflict broke out nearly eight years ago — the 22-member Arab League (AL) not only imposed sanctions on Damascus but also expelled it from the fold. Fast-forward to the present and al-Bashir is the first AL leader to visit Syria since. Thus there is more at play here than mere symbolism. This is about re-integrating Bashar al-Assad into the international community. And courting the Arab embrace is the first step towards this end.

The Russian president appears to be the man who can. For by attempting to secure Arab cover for al-Assad — he can comfortably take a backseat while reaping the benefits of propping up a regional ally. And pushing Sudan to the fore represents shrewd business sense. After all, Moscow has cast itself in the role of sometime financial saviour to Khartoum; particularly after the latter lost around three-quarters of its oil wealth after South Sudan seceded. Such as the $1billion deposited in the Sudanese Central Bank to stabilise currency rates and offset inflation that is currently hitting around 70 percent; one of the highest levels in the world. This is to say nothing of how Russia protects the al-Bashir regime and its incredibly poor human rights record at the UN Security Council. All of which suggests that Khartoum is well positioned to do Moscow’s bidding.

Arab investment is crucial to Syria’s economic reconstruction. Especially as the West has (temporarily) blown it on this front due to its insistence that Damascus carried out chemical weapons attacks on its own people; even as investigative journalists such as Seymour Hersh and Robert Fisk have reported otherwise. Thus with the Yemen war raging on and the sudden focus on western complicity on this front there can be no return — at least for the time being — to the heady days where certain western leaders suggested that Assad could run for re-election in the event of a final political settlement. Yet this remains an entirely different question when it comes to Arab leaders.

The only sticking point being that while Moscow likely views its latest manoeuvrings as paving the way for an eventual détente between the Arab world and Iran — there are already murmurings of how the former are gearing up to use the promise of huge cash injections as a means of luring Syria away from Tehran and towards Riyadh. Be that as it may, Putin is not a man known to overplay his hand. Bahrain, Jordan and Turkey have all recently softened their tone towards Damascus.

Thus from where those in the Middle East are sitting — Russia looks all set to win this round. *

Published in Daily Times, December 19^th2018.