Daily Times

In view of no gains made during the last fourteen years fighting by the US and coalition forces with the Taliban in Afghanistan and seeing that his own initial strategy of fighting in Afghanistan is not succeeding, President Trump seems to be convinced that it is economically and psychologically not feasible for the US forces to keep fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan. This assessment seems to have emerged after seeing no possibility of a victory in the foreseeable future, as the Talibanis more resilient and stronger than before and they are causing more harm to life and property in Afghanistan and expanding their control over the Afghan territory. Hence, the US administration now thinks that it is better to leave Afghanistan with some dignity rather than doing the same after some more years after feeling psychologically defeated.

President Trump’s desire for peace with the Taliban in Afghanistan is evident from the fresh efforts being pursued by the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and President Trump’s letter handed over by Zalmay Khalidzad to the Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, during a recent meeting with him. In the letter President Trump has sought Pakistan’s help for convincing the Taliban to start talks with the US officials and the Afghan Government for seeking a long term peace in Afghanistan, although very recently the US officials have blamed Pakistan for giving refuge to the Taliban leaders.In response to President Trump’s letter, Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that Pakistan will do whatever was possible to achieve peace in Afghanistan.

In the above context, the US President also felt compelled to think in terms of peace with the Taliban after witnessing that Russia and China led peace efforts in Afghanistan, accepting the Taliban as a major stakeholder, we’re gaining momentum, as all the regional players except India have gone in favour of talking to the Taliban. Although it is yet not clear that on what terms the US wants peace with the Taliban, because the Taliban want to talk directly with the US, they want the withdrawal of all US and coalition troops from Afghanistan and they also want to amend Afghanistan’s constitution. The Taliban would also like to have solid assurances and would not easily fall prey to some diversionary strategy of the US. On the other hand, the US would like to retain some military bases in Afghanistan, and ensure the prevalence of India’s political and military influence there.

As published by the Voice of America (VOA) on4 December 2018, since his appointment in September 2018, U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has accelerated efforts to find an Afghan peace pact that would allow for the eventual withdrawal of the United States from the long war, which has already cost Washington nearly $1 trillion. Ambassador Zalmay Khalidzad has already met the Taliban representatives in their office in Doha, Qatar, he has met the Afghan President Ghani, has met Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran Khan, held talks with Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and he is also going to Russia and Central Asian states in gaining their cooperation for starting talks with the Taliban.

In the context of peace in Afghanistan, the US administration appears to be in a hurry, as Ambassador Zalmay Khalidzad wants to have a peace agreement with the Taliban before upcoming Afghan presidential elections in April 2019 and there is news that the presidential elections may be delayed for some times. In this context, it is an encouraging information that the US officials are talking to the Taliban as they view the US backed government in Kabul as a dysfunctional Western puppet and have refused repeated offers to negotiate with it, although in Ambassador’s talks with the Taliban in Qatar in November 2018, the US has neither confirmed nor denied the possibility of holding direct talks with the Taliban..

The US President also felt compelled to think in terms of peace with the Taliban after witnessing that Russia and China led peace efforts in Afghanistan, accepting the Taliban as a major stakeholder, we’re gaining momentum, as all the regional players except India have gone in favour of talking to the Taliban

Since all the stakeholders in Afghanistan seem to be poised for establishing peace in Afghanistan, it appears that talks between the US along with other stakeholders, and the Taliban might start quite soon. However, what stances are presented in the talks by the Taliban, the US,  the Afghan Government representatives and other regional actors will be known during the dialogue. Also, since the Taliban have been engaged by the US directly the success of the dialogue process and the seriousness of the US will be tested soon.

However, for the peace process to succeed, it would be necessary that sincere efforts are done by all stakeholders with the spirit of give and take. As far as Pakistan is concerned, it will do its best to work in favour of a peace deal as peace in Afghanistan is vital for the stability and economic development of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

[The writer is an ex-Army Colonel, a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), and Senior Research Fellow, Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad].

Published in Daily Times, December 17^th 2018.