Daily Times

Qatar’s announced withdrawal from OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has raised eyebrows. Not least because the Gulf kingdom joined the 15-member bloc of oil producing countries back in 1961; just a year after its founding. But a lot has changed in close to six decades.

Nevertheless, Doha is keen to push the message that this is a purely pragmatic move and one that is entirely divorced from regional politics. Thus the official line is that the Arab nation is going to focus on its comparative advantage: liquefied natural gas (LNG). To be sure, the figures speak for themselves. For while OPEC and non-member Russia account for around 40 percent of the world’s oil production — Qatar is responsible for just under two percent of total output. By contrast, it remains the world’s biggest supplier of LNG; taking credit for 30 percent of global output.

Yet this will naturally bring the Arab nation closer Iran. After all, the two sides share the world’s largest known natural gas field: North Field. Relations between Doha and Tehran have long led to regional tensions that came to a head as the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar underscores. This, of course, has been ongoing since the summer of 2017; resulting in the kingdom enduring diplomatic isolation and financial choking. Thus this seeming tilt towards Iran’s warm embrace will not be well received by Riyadh. After all, comments attributed to the Qatari ruler — which he later denied — that described Tehran as an Islamic power provided the impetus for the blockade. And one of the overriding demands to end this was for Doha to break off all diplomatic ties with the Iranians. Naturally, Qatar refused.

Be that as it may, the Middle East is currently passing through a period of increased volatility and instability. And it is Saudi Arabia — not Iran — that is coming under increasing international fire. For the murder of the US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi has suddenly roused the West into reaching for its long forgotten moral compass. This has prompted condemnation at home for lucrative arm sales to Riyadh as the latter continues to target Yemen; one of the poorest nations in the world. This is to say nothing of the reformist Crown Prince locking up feminists for demanding an end to the kindship system. By contrast, Tehran continues to play by the nuclear rulebook and enjoys EU support on this front; the question of crippling US sanctions notwithstanding.

Thus, perhaps, in recognition of the Saudis’ less than robust position on the international stage — an invitation to attend this week’s Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has reportedly been extended to Qatar. If this goes ahead, it will be good news all around. Particularly as it will send the message that bullying is never a sustainable substitution for policy.  *

Published in Daily Times, December 4^th 2018.