Daily Times

A lot has been said and written about recent events in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, and about the dissolution of the state legislative assembly and imposition of President’s rule.

In my opinion all these analyses were superficial and do not explain the inner realities. So let me explain step by step:

The truth is that due to the short sighted policies of the Central Indian Government over decades almost the entire Kashmiri population has now become alienated and bitterly hostile to India, and more and more young men are steadily joining the ranks of the militants. No doubt the number of Kashmiri militants are still probably not more than a few hundred or few thousand, but their numbers are rising, and their sympathisers would be a large section of the Kashmiri population (I am not talking of Jammu ). Whole villages become stone pelters.

The militants use guerilla tactics of hit and run, and are now resorting to new tactics e.g. sniper firing, which is very difficult to deal with, as the Germans learnt in Stalingrad during WW II.

The Indian security forces consist of 3 groups, the Indian army, the paramilitary forces (CRPF, BSF, etc) and the J&K police. Of these, while the first two consist of non-Kashmiri personnel, the third, i.e. J&K police consist of local people of the state (though many senior officers are outsiders). Personnel belonging to the J&K police, especially Kashmiris, are the most vulnerable targets for the militants, for they have their families in Kashmir. The Kashmiri policemen are therefore in a very unenviable position: they have either to become secret informers to the militants, or take the risk of becoming targets, being branded as Indian agents and/or informers to the Indian security forces.

There is a massive deployment of about 500,000 Indian army, para-military and other armed forces in Kashmir. Thus in theory while there is a civilian government, the truth is that, it is the army and para-military forces who are the real power in the Kashmir valley. The civilian government is just a phantom, like the South Vietnamese Government, which was really a puppet, the real rulers being the U.S. Army

An army does not like to fight with its hands tied behind its back. So the Indian army’s higher command must have told the Indian Government that it does not like politicians complaining about atrocities by the army.

However, when there is such a huge deployment of security forces in such a small area as Kashmir, there are bound to be atrocities.

Consider the following scenario: a group of 10 or 20 Indian army or para-military troops are on a patrol somewhere in Kashmir. From a distance some militants fire at them, and then disappear (a classic hit and run operation). Suppose in this process 2 or 3 jawansare killed. What do the rest do? They go crazy at the killing of their comrades and then they will go to the nearest village and slaughter any civilian who is seen. This is the normal reaction, and in fact this is what people who have operated in Kashmir have told me.

Also, a soldier operating for long periods in such a deadly hostile terrain, where every moment may be his last, cannot be expected to be psychologically very normal, and can become unhinged on slightest provocations, committing atrocities, as happened in My Lai in Vietnam. The UN Committee report has referred to these.

The guerilla has the advantage of surprise. He chooses the date, time, place and duration of attack, and normally makes meticulous preparation before launching it. Thus, the Indian security forces are often caught napping. The Kashmiri militants may be small in number, but they have a huge number of sympathisers who supply them not only food and shelter, but also intelligence about the Indian security forces, its deployment, numbers, etc. Consequently many Indian security personnel have been killed in Kashmir, and the number is increasing.

As it is the army is facing huge problems in Kashmir, and it does not want a further problem in the shape of politicians who publicly accuse the army of atrocities. The approach of the army seems clear: either withdraw the army from Kashmir, but if you want to keep us there, turn a Nelson’s eye on whatever we do

This being the ground situation, the army commanders must have told the Indian Government that as it is the army is facing huge problems in Kashmir, and it does not want a further problem in the shape of politicians who publicly accuse the army of atrocities. The approach of the army seems clear: either withdraw the army from Kashmir, but if you want to keep us there, turn a Nelson’s eye on whatever we do.

Now Jammu is mostly in the hands of BJP, and there is no problem created by BJP MLAs. The problem is with MLAs of PDP, NC and Congress. These will definitely complain of army atrocities as these politicians reside with their families in Kashmir, and to collaborate with the Central Government, or appearing to do so or even remaining silent may amount to signing one’s own death warrant.

The J&K Assembly has 87 seats. In the last elections PDP won 28, BJP won 25, NC won 15, and Congress won 12. After BJP withdrew support in June, Governor’s rule was imposed under section 92 of the state Constitution. However, recently PDP, NC and Congress came together, thus collectively having a clear majority in the House. Constitutionally, therefore, the Governor was obliged to invite the leader of this coalition to form a government, or at least hold a floor test as mandated by Bommai’s case

However, it seems that the army, which really calls the shots in Kashmir, was not agreeable to this, as it would result in forming a state government whose members would criticise the army whenever atrocities were committed (and they are bound to be committed, for reasons already explained above). This is the real reason for imposition of President’s rule in the state. The army commanders must have told the Prime Minister that they will not tolerate a state government which is critical of the army even in the slightest, whereas the PDP, NC, and Congress leaders will definitely criticise it off and on when atrocities occur.

The orders of the Supreme Court for putting army personnel on trial who are alleged to have committed atrocities and human rights violation must have been bitterly resented by the army officers, and that is why some even approached the Court. Now they must have said enough is enough.

Under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, President’s rule can be extended upto 3 years by complying with certain conditions vide clause (4) of Article 356, and who knows, the Constitution may even be amended for continuing President’s rule even thereafter.

So we are in for the long haul in Kashmir, which though called President’s rule, is really army rule.

Justice Markandey Katju, former Judge, Supreme Court of India

Published in Daily Times, November 24^th 2018.