Daily Times

India, as an emerging power in the region is eager to join the big boys in the power games being played in Afghanistan. Indian ambitions in Afghanistan are not only for power projection, but also for destabilizing Pakistan. The 16 December 2014 heinous attack on the Army Public School Peshawar, assault at the Bacha Khan University and scores of terror attacks in Pakistan are some examples of the odious Indian agenda. Senior RAW operative Commander Kulbhoshan Jadhav, arrested from Baluchistan and the interrogation of several terrorists apprehended from the tribal belt have provided ample evidence of the atrocious Indian modus operandi.

The scenario in Afghanistan is changing rapidly and there are possibilities that if the Taliban come back into power in Kabul, New Delhi may be left in the lurch. New Delhi’s South Block is burning the midnight oil to formulate a cogent strategy to deal with the contingency as well as find dividends for the $1.3bn Indian investment purportedly in aid projects for Afghanistan since 2001.

The 9-11 November 2018, Moscow Conference on peace in Afghanistan depicts the confusion prevailing in New Delhi. Earlier Washington D.C. and Kabul had boycotted the Moscow Conference in September 2018, leading to a postponement but the milieu had changed by November. Trump’s special envoy to Kabul, Zalmay Khalilzad has been shuttling between Kabul, Doha and Islamabad, making peace overtures to the Taliban. Washington continued to dilly dally but at the last minute decided to send its diplomat in Moscow to the conference. Ashraf Ghani reluctantly deputed members of the Afghan High Peace Council to represent Kabul. Delhi, which had been sitting on the fence, gauging U.S. moves, deputed unofficial representatives to the Moscow-convened Afghanistan conference once Washington edged forward.

India’s greatest fears are that the Taliban may return to power. In 1996, when the Taliban controlled over 90 per cent of Afghanistan, Delhi had supported the Northern Alliance and had even set up a military field hospital in Mazar-e-Sharif. The 1999 hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane by terrorists seeking the release of MasoodAzhar, which culminated at Taliban controlled Kandahar airport, still haunts New Delhi.

In the new setting of the power games, Russia, which had opposed the Taliban in the 1990s, is backing them for two compulsions. Firstly, it wants a bulwark against the Daesh; secondly, Taliban now control 70 percent of Afghanistan. For all the tough talk of U.S. President Donald Trump, the Taliban are now being wooed with overtures for peace. The Taliban-negotiating from a position of strength-are demanding the complete withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan and now perceive Moscow as benefactor rather than a foe. Russia and India may continue to be tethered in defence deals but the proximity of Washington D.C. and New Delhi is not lost on Moscow.   New Delhi may have managed to poison the current dispensation in Kabul’s minds against Islamabad, but Pakistan still has a few aces up its sleeve. China, with its offer of reconstruction and development deals is a new player in the arena. Pakistan continues to host more that 3 million Afghan refugees in the country and has offered space for Afghanistan in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

It is for the people of Afghanistan to differentiate between their real friends and foes to move forward towards peace. Both Washington D.C. and New Delhi need to change their clichéd narrative of “there are no good Taliban or bad Taliban; the only good Taliban are dead Taliban”, and that the “fanatical regime was unacceptable”

It is for the people of Afghanistan to differentiate between their real friends and foes to move forward towards peace. Both Washington D.C. and New Delhi need to change their clichéd narrative of “there are no good Taliban or bad Taliban; the only good Taliban are dead Taliban”, and that the “fanatical regime was unacceptable.”

The “elected governments” of Afghanistan, both under Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, tried reaching out to the Taliban but their advances were rejected claiming they were not the true representatives of the Afghans.

India may be fearful that the Taliban may spurn New Delhi and its close ally Tehran because of India’s past hostility towards the Taliban and the Iranians being a majority Shia state and the Taliban are staunch Sunnis. India thinks that it has much more to offer to Afghanistan by way of economic aid than Pakistan can ever hope to do but immediate economic gains may not be the only consideration for the Taliban if they come to power. They will be looking for long term stability, which will come from the various development projects with Central Asian States, in which Pakistan is also a partner and the Chinese are a major player. Tehran too is keen to reach out to the Taliban to check the advancement of the Daesh.

The recent outbursts of Donald Trump against Pakistan are being welcomed in India but the fact that both Foggy Bottom and Pentagon have made serious efforts for damage control should be taken cognizance of by New Delhi. India may have to mend its fences with Pakistan to get closer to Kabul in a new set up.

The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China

Published in Daily Times, November 24^th 2018.