Daily Times

The South Asian balance of power is in transition due to the changing contours of US South Asia policy and waxing India-US relations. Strengthening ties between Pakistan and China are response to it. Russian role in the region will play as catalyst to further shape the regional power configuration as the world is moving toward multi-polarity.

During post-cold war era, Indian stance toward USA changed as US emerged sole super power in the international system after disintegration of USSR. India followed classical Kuatilian philosophy of appeasement and making alliance with sole super power of international system under the prevailing wave of uni-polarity. Indo-US defense cooperation transformed into strategic partnershipin 2005 due to convergence on critical regional issues particularly Afghanistan problem. The civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement of 2008 has further strengthened this partnership.

In recent years, USA has granted nuclear waiver to India in nuclear trade as gesture toward recognition of India as semi-legitimate nuclear power. India has achieved milestone in nuclear export control regime after this stimulus by signing membership of key multilateral nuclear trade agreements including The Australia group, MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) and The Wassenaar group. Only left multilateral treaty is NSG (Nuclear Supplier Group) forbecoming functional part of multilateral nuclear material export control regime. This Indo-US strategic partnership has been strengthened due to two main reasons.

First, the lucrative Indian market economy is a best trade exchange option for USA as India has consecutive growth rate of seven percent since 1980. Second, Indian defense trade and military hardware acquisition spending policy toward US is beneficial for US military industrial complex (MIC)which in return lobbies for India in US congress and pentagon. India has purchased weapons of $15 billion USD from 2005 to 2015 while India has emerged as top global importer of arms by surpassing China in 2015. This military procurement and trade policy has positive balance of payment in the interest of USA.

India is seeking political leverage on international forums and strategic space in Afghanistan in return for this favorable trade exchange with the US

This tradeoff is equally beneficial for India. India is seeking political leverage on international forums and strategic space in Afghanistan in return for this favorable trade exchange with the US. The US South Asia policy has become partisan with India after 2008 nuclear cooperation agreement especially on critical issues including Kashmir and cross-border terrorism in the region. This imbalance in US South Asia approach has severe security implications for Pakistan.

The relevance of Indian military modernization drive has augmented foreign and security policy endeavors of the polity. This military modernization has changed national power equation of India which will have deep implications for changing balance of power in South Asia and global transition of power. Similarly, the global balance of power has undergone significant transformations during the 21st century.

India has witnessed unprecedented political and economic rise given the transforming global power configuration. India has initiated a comprehensive military modernizations plan in order to translate its economic strength into an effective and tangible military might. Political and academic debate among strategic communities deliberate on the scale and strength of this modernization, as well as how it will influence India’s relative power in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region.

The increased pace of this military modernization with available finances has result in more assertive foreign policy behaviorismsfrom India. This changing balance of power has depleting effect on strategic stability of south Asia which has security implications for Pakistan. India has tried to apply policy of double dealing in order to convince international community that freedom movement in Kashmir and other insurgencies in India are terrorist movements.

India wants to use political and economic support of international community as a tool in order to crush these movements through use of force which are security challenge for India. Since 2001, India is using its multi-flank diplomacy as a tool for portraying Pakistan a terrorist and pariah state before international community in order to convince the world for supporting Indian preemptive war doctrine against Pakistan.

Under the crescent of cold-start doctrine of 2004, India has planned a strategy of preemptive war against Pakistan which has been often quoted as limited war doctrine. This cold-start doctrine was revised in 2014 while further amended in 2016 in order to make it more offensive and punitive. Surgical strikes as war option in Indian military doctrine of 2017 is an addition to it.  Indian disputed claims of surgical strike in 2016 and 2018 against Pakistan are part of this strategy to pressurize Pakistan and sensitize global community.

Pakistan has vigorously rebutted these Indian claims. Rather, Pakistan has adopted full spectrum deterrence doctrine as counter balancing effort against this changing security strategy of India to thwart Indian aggression across Line of Control in Kashmir region. These emerging patterns reflect depleting strategic stability and instigated armed race as major outcomes in South Asia.Pakistan needs to skillfully launch diplomatic endeavors for garnering support from friendly regional states especially, KSA, Turkey, Iran, China and Russia to diffuse Indian prograde of isolating Pakistan by carving out regional solution of political settlement in Afghanistan.

The author holds M Phil in International Relations from Quaid-i-Azam University. He is an independent political analyst. His areas of interest are Geopolitics, Politics of South Asia, Analysis of India-Pakistan Defence and Foreign policy. He can be reached at ayazkhokhar31@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, November 19^th 2018.