Daily Times

The Cyprus issue is regarded as a “frozen conflict” and has defied resolution for fifty years. The recent discovery of gas in its vicinity has raised the hope of providing a platform for greater cooperation between the two protagonists; the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. While at the same time it has rekindled possible animosity leading to conflict.

Currently this scribe is touring Cyprus, at the invitation of the Foreign Ministry of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) for the 35th Anniversary of their Independence Day. The above-named issue was discussed with both, the current Foreign Minister, Prof. KudretÖzersay as well as the TRNC President Mustafa Ak?nc?, who confirmed that the advent of hydro carbon exploration can be either a boon or bane between the erstwhile hostile neighbours.

Prior to donning the mantle of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Professor Kudret has been the chief negotiator between the warring sides and in a conciliatory tone says, “We aim at cooling down the waters, not warming them up.” The TRNC Foreign Minister laments that if the solution to the Cyprus issue must be “Bi-Communal and Bi-Zonal”, both entities i.e. the Greek and Turkish Cypriots must be involved. In 2017, international efforts to reunify the island, mediated by the UN, collapsed dramatically at the Crans-Montana talks. The Greek community, supported by Greece, refused to accept a federal Cyprus with Turkish troops on its soil and Turkey’s unilateral right to intervene, while the Turkish Cypriots, backed by Turkey, could not settle for the withdrawal of the approximately 30,000 Turkish troops still stationed in the North. The rationale for the presence of the Turkish troops is understandable, devoid of any armed forces, the Greeks will overrun the island as they did in 1974, resulting in the massacre of Turkish Cypriots. The presence of the one thousand UN Peace Keeping troops comprising mostly British soldiers will not be enough to keep the Greeks at bay. Britain, along with Turkey and Greece, enjoys guarantor powers under the Zürich and London Agreement. Britain occupied Cyprus in 1878, from the Ottoman Empire and annexed it in 1925.  Initially the Greek and Turkish Cypriots were united in ousting Britain from their island but the 1974, military action by Greeks changed the status. Britain, the progenitor of the issue continues to maintain two military bases in the Greek part of the island. The strategic location of Cyprus adds to its importance. Recently Britain used its military bases in Cyprus to pound Syria.

In 2004 Greek Cyprus became a member of the European Union but not before the EU had declared Turkey as an invading force in Cyprus. Resultantly, TRNC is totally isolated with only Turkey extending it diplomatic recognition. Both Pakistan and Bangladesh had recognized it but withdrew it under US pressure. TRNC is barred from trading directly with any nation, host tourists or accept flights or ships apart from Turkey. The country has a beautiful landscape, rich heritage of cultural and historical sites and now the discovery of hydro carbon resources but is handicapped because of its status.

The international community, interested in the gas reserves should use the resource as leverage for equitable distribution amongst the Turkish and Greek Cypriots rather than a bone of contention. Pakistan, which has a new government, should recognize TRNC and canvass for getting its rights, like Turkey has been supporting Pakistan in the Kashmir issue

The TRNC Foreign Minister opined that Greek Cypriots had no problems in denying a solution to the Cyprus issue in the “absence of mutually hurting situation, which hurts both to remove the status quo.” TRNC continues to suffer because of lack of recognition and embargoes placed by the EU declaring it as an “occupied state”. Greek Cypriots, on the other hand are having the best of both worlds.

The discovery of Gas reserves in the largely underexplored Eastern Mediterranean has led to speculations and a flurry of activities. Five major discoveries are the Tamar and Leviathan fields, discovered in 2009 and 2010; offshore Israel (with an estimated capacity of 282 bcm and 621 bcm of gas respectively); the Aphrodite field, discovered in 2011 off of Cyprus (with 128 bcm); and the 2015 major discovery off the cost of Egypt, the Zohr field, which holds the largest capacity in the Eastern Mediterranean with an estimated of 845 bcm of natural gas. The discoveries have aroused the interest of European countries looking for supply alternatives outside Russia, as well as of the energy companies.

TRNC would like to indulge in explorations with the support of Turkey, while Greek Cypriots would tend to deprive TRNC of the fruits of this discovery. The TRNC President opines that a committee should be formed to decide how the resources can be shared and used as an asset to establish peace and stability. One sided exploration can lead to the creation of tensions. The international community, interested in the gas reserves should use the resource as leverage for equitable distribution amongst the Turkish and Greek Cypriots rather than a bone of contention. Pakistan, which has a new government, should recognize TRNC and canvass for getting its rights, like Turkey has been supporting Pakistan in the Kashmir issue.

The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China

Published in Daily Times, November 17^th 2018.