Daily Times

President Trump’s sanctions against Iran came into effect on November 5 along with waivers to eight countries(China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan and Turkey). These waivers, mostly concerned with import of Iranian oil, would be effective for 180 days after which the US administration would review the situation. It is not clear how much countries could buy under the waivers, but the move gave at least a short term breather to Tehran although 700 of its business entities were blacklisted. These wavers are not without reason; those are meant to help contain sudden rise in oil prices because of production capacity problems likely to be faced by other oil producing countries.

Meanwhile, European partners of the nuclear deal have reiterated their resolve to continue the business with Iran.EU countries led by France, Germany and the UK have announced to set up a “special purpose vehicle” to facilitate non-US trade with Iran, but so far it has not made a tangible difference in raising the comfort level of the Iranian government. For the time being the so-called “special purpose vehicle” would act as a “clearing house” which would be a barter trade mechanism without explicit financial transactions. European commentators are skeptical of a normal business with Iran despite three European signatories of the nuclear deal (UK, France and Germany) pledging not to comply with the US sanctions. In reality, the western media has reported that most of the European businesses have either shutdown or drastically reduced their presence in Iran.

In the region, however, Russia and China have declared to continue normal trade with Iran. They have maintained that reimposition of US sanctions would be detrimental to maintaining the sanctity of international agreements. While the US has also granted waiver to Turkey, the latter publically snubbed the US by saying that it didn’t believe in sanctions and vowed to continue business with Iran as usual. Turkish Foreign Minister MevlutCavusoglu on Tuesday (6 November) criticized the U.S sanctions on Iran’s oil and shipping industries, saying it was “dangerous to isolate Iran and unfair to punish its people”.

India, which has been a beneficiary of the waiver, apart from purchasing oil from Iran was also granted exemption on the Chabahar Port development project. The port would allow transit facilities to India and Afghanistan and serve as an alternate to the port facilities offered by Pakistan. Afghanistan has also received waiver to import Iranian oil products.

The cumulative impact of sanctions, according to the Trump Administration’s officials, is expected to “cripple” the Iranian economy. It is claimed by the Administration officials that out of 2.7 million barrels per day (mbd) Iran have lost export of one million barrels per day due to cancellation or drastic reduction of orders by the major importers. It is projected by the American officials that declining oil exports have caused double-digit inflation in the Iranian economy; rising unemployment has further strained the economy which may have implications on political stability in the country.

In the region, however, Russia and China have declared to continue normal trade with Iran. They have maintained that reimposition of US sanctions would be detrimental to maintaining the sanctity of international agreements. While the US has also granted waiver to Turkey, the latter publically snubbed the US

Would President Trump succeed in pressurizing Iran to fall in line? The events of past four decades show that it would be quite a challenging task for the American administration to achieve the objective of isolating Iran, especially when it has annoyed many of its close allies including Europeans. More importantly, the US pretext for leaving the nuclear deal known as Joint Comprehensive Programme of Action (JCPOA) is not convincing and that too when Iran has been in full compliance of the deal. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has testified in almost a dozen inspection reports that Iran has not breached any of the provisions of the JCPOA.

It is becoming obvious that President Trump’s sanctions were meant to create tensions in the region, as even without leaving the JCPOA the US could still convince Iran to negotiate its missile programme and Middle East policy. The US withdrawal from the JCPOA has set a very dangerous precedent in international relations with grave consequences for peace and security in West Asia. This would put a big question mark on future multilateral agreements while jeopardizing the sanctity of existing treaties. Like JCPOA, countries would be skeptical of future agreements including those endorsed by the UN Security Council.

There is a growing realization amongst the countries at the regional level to develop safety mechanisms against a punitive regime threatened by the US every now and then, especially after the 9/11. Trump’s sanctions against Iran have encouraged the countries to think about the alternatives to deflect the negative impact of such actions. The announcement by China, Russia and Turkey to resist US sanctions against Iran despite the latter’s threats of punishment is a significant development not only for the region but also internationally. The US actions are pushing the countries towards a new cold war with serious implications.

It should be a source of concern for many countries of the region that the much touted idea of “Arab Spring” has only compounded miseries of those states where such a “spring” was experimented as a” great promise” for the people of Tunisia, Libya or Egypt. Similarly, Iraq and Syria have only witnessed destruction although the initial objective may have been to create “democratic order” by replacing the autocratic regimes. All these experimentations have been done without due regard to an evolutionary process in countries reeling under autocracies and after deposition of dictators lack experience to run the country in a democratic order.

Iran is a good example of political evolution. Rhetoric apart, the present day Iran is far more different in terms of political developments than initial years of Islamic revolution when in the name of consolidating the revolution a reign of terror was unleashed. From the Middle Eastern standards, political developments in Iran are far advanced than many countries of the region whether it is freedom of expression, political association or choice of candidates. However, from the western standards, Iran still lags far behind in terms of freedom of expression or choice although Iranian clergy forcefully defends the existing political order in the country.

American and dissident Iranian commentators are projecting President Trump’s punitive measures as watershed actions leading to “regime change”. But in doing so they have no better alternative to offer, as there is no organized opposition in the country; in fact, such an opposition was considered an anathema to the health of Islamic system. Secondly, even outside Iran dissident Iranian groups are disorganized and there is no “Imam Khomeini” to lead the nation to the path of “undiluted democracy”, certainly not by the son of the deposed Shah.

There is still hope to retrieve the situation from getting worse. Being the sole super power, the US should lead the way and come back to the JCPOA; stop playing proxies or experimenting regime change. Rather than contributing to the renewed cold war, the US has the opportunity to promote détente with Iran. For Iran, it would be advisable to raise the comfort level of Gulf States and stop promoting its brand of “regime change”.

The writer is a former ambassador

Published in Daily Times, November  10^th 2018.