Daily Times

The latest data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) shows that Pakistan’s inflation rate accelerated notably in outgoing month as consumer price index rose by 7.0% on year-on-year basis in October 2018 compared to an increase of 5.1% in the previous month and 3.8% in October 2017.

On month-on-month basis, it increased by 2.6% in October 2018 as compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month and increase of 0.7% in October 2017.

Yawar uz Zaman, an analyst at Shajar Research, says the recent news flow related to IMF’s projection regarding inflation rate to reach 14% in FY19 seems unrealistic in our view. However, we foresee CPI to go in double digit during February-June

2019 where we expect CPI to mark a high of 12.3% in June 2019.

According to the analyst the key reason behind the bull-run in inflation readings includes higher gas and electricity tariffs, revision in house rent, and education index, increase in fuel and gasoline prices and expected rupee devaluation impact on food index.

Core inflation measured by non-food non-energy CPI (Core NFNE) increased by 8.2% on (YoY) basis in October 2018 as compared to an increase of 8.0% in the previous month and 5.3% in October 2017. On (MoM) basis, it increased by 1.1% in October 2018 as compared to an increase of 0.4% in previous month, and an increase of 0.9% in corresponding month of last year i.e. October 2017.

Core inflation, measured by 20% weighted trimmed mean CPI (Core Trimmed) increased by 6.7% on (YoY) basis in October 2018 as compared to 5.8% in the previous month and by 4.0% in October 2017.

On (MoM) basis, it increased by 0.8% in October 2018 as compared to an increase of 0.1% in the previous month and an increase of 0.6% in corresponding month of last year i.e. October 2017.

Top few food commodities which prices increased from previous year i.e. October 2017 were betel leaves & nuts (141.44%), chicken (28.31%), spices (12.61%), meat (11.7%), cigarettes (10.89%), dry fruits (10.29%), rice (9.73%), tea (8.82%), sweat meat (7.74%), honey (6.67%), eggs (6.07%), jam tomato ketchup & pickles (6.04%), milk powder (5.47%), condiments (5.37%) and readymade food (4.77%).

The food commodities which prices were decreased are onion (55.97%), tomatoes (28.75%), potatoes (21.25%), pulse mash (19.66%), gram whole (10.75%), pulse masoor (7.95%), pulse moong (5.79%), besan (4.86%) and pulse gram (3.28%).

Non-food items increased gas (104.91%), kerosene oil (31.81%), newspapers (27.82%), motor fuel (26.41%), transport services (17.74%), water supply (13.62%), motor vehicles (12.94%), doctor (mbbs) clinic fee (12.8%), personal equipments (12.38%), education (11.54%), construction input items (11.07%), medical tests (10.72%), utensils (10.58%), cosmetics (10.48%) and construction wage rates (10.01%).

Published in Daily Times, November 3^rd 2018.