Daily Times

Economic development and wellbeing is an ultimate human right. Everyone desires a life with a good economic status, a peaceful and free of fear environment. Countries strive to provide better economic and welfare opportunities for their people. Therefore, every country is out to get a decent economic growth rate and ensure a trickle down impact for every one without any discrimination.

We have observed the world improve considerably on developing and sustained good economic growth rates for decades except few setbacks. Although, the economic system is still too weak to ensure a trickle down impact and grant equality, but still it helps to overcome many problems. World has almost reduced poverty by half and considerably managed food insecurity during the last few decades. It helped to effectively counter the Malthus theory. Malthus predicted that population soon will cross the limit of the carrying capacity of the earth. It will give birth to famine and conflicts. He concluded that war, famine and diseases will help to check population control and termed them as positive checks. However, the world survived the prediction of Malthus despite crossing the seven billion number. Major reasons for survival are exponential economic growth, development in technologies of food production and better health systems.

Paul Ehrlich now brings in a new concept of environment in the light of Malthus’s theory of positive checks. He believes that the environment will be the determining factor in deciding the future of planet Earth. Environmental degradation will lead to great losses to human life and resources including agriculture, food and economy. History has witnessed disappearance of many civilisations due to environmental degradation like Harappa, Classic Maya and ancient Egypt etc. Many scholars consider climate change as the ultimate threat and term it as the killer of civilisations. Environmental degradation start will resources and economy and gradually encompasses all sectors.

Therefore, it requires a sensible and well-thought strategy to interact with environment and climate change. The world has attained a level of development and revolutionised system of production and technology that helped earth to survive the first prediction of Malthus. Now, Ehrlich’s theory is in place and we need to study it with more seriousness. The first sign of relevance of Ehrlich are quite evident from the outcomes of last century’s development model. Last century’s revolution in industrial production, communication, agriculture production, technology and ICT contributed to the welfare of humans. But it also introduced a few problems and one of the biggest problems is Climate Change which is now impacting every sphere of life including economy.

Stern’s report put the predictions in real time estimates in term of economy. He predicted that climate change will introduce a direct impact on the GDP of all countries. There would be a 5 percent loss in GDP due to climate change, if we start to tackle it seriously. Otherwise, it can cross 20 percent within a short span of time. Harvard Business Review shows that climate change impact can cost about 2.2 trillion US $ till 2025, across the world in major cities. The most recent IPCC report indicates that costs of climate can be 54 trillion US $ if temperature reach the limit of 2.7 Celsius. Sporadic climate changes are already putting huge cost on countries. The British faced losses up to 14 billion US dollar in 2014. Superstorm Sandy cost US almost 68 billion dollars and the cost of Katrina was even bigger.

History has witnessed disappearance of many civilizations due to environmental degradation like Harappa, Classic Maya and ancient Egypt etc. Many scholars consider climate change as the ultimate threat and term it as the killer of civilisations

Pakistan has also suffered losses due to climate change. Flood of 2010, was huge in impact in all aspects, Pakistan bore loss of almost 10 billion US dollars, which is a huge amount considering the GDP of Pakistan. Destruction of schools and health centres greatly impacted human capital development. Persistent drought of 1998-2003, introduced problems of migration and a loss of livelihood in Balochistan and other parts of the country. Moreover, World Bank in 2006. estimated that Pakistan lost almost 365 billions PKR due to environmental degradation. The cost must have gone up but we do not have any credible estimates.

Unfortunately, humans are responsible for the climate change. Phenomenon of climate change is result of human interventions with nature, especially model of economic development along with other factors. Industrial revolution brought climate change with it. Fossil fuels extensively contributed toward greenhouse gasses emission (GHG). Two third of global GHG emissions emerge from the use of fossil fuels. In the case of Europe, it is even more and it contributes almost 78 percent. In case of Pakistan almost 51 percent of total GHG emission comes from the energy sector alone.

It is expected that contribution of GHG from will increase as Pakistan’s economy is on recovery mode. Pakistan’s major intervention on economic front is CPEC with the assistance of China. China is investing in Pakistan in almost every sector especially in power and industrial development. Energy sector investments has been diversified but still fossil fuels have a major share. Coal power plants have been established to cater to the urgent energy needs of country. However, a good point is that Pakistan is trying to minimise the impact of fossil fuel powered energy sources on environment by adopting new technologies. Moreover, Pakistan is also looking for ways to minimise its dependence on fossil fuels. Investment in renewable sources is also on the rise like solar, wind and hydro.

Industrial development discussion is also bringing in the use of more clean energy sources. Pakistan is trying to learn from developed countries and especially from China for developing renewable energy sector. It would be easier for Pakistan to work with China, as CPEC is joint venture of both countries. China has good experience in renewable energy sector as it has shifted its focus on clean energy for improving environment. President Xi Jinping has clearly spelled out the importance of environment in addition to development. In third principle contradiction President Xi said, our development was inadequate and unbalanced. Development did not cater for the needs of environment and it only focused on growth rate of GDP.

Pakistan can negotiate with China to take CPEC as a pilot project under the vision of ‘Green Civilisation’. It can also serve as flagship project under the vision of ‘Green Civilisation’. For negotiation Pakistan needs to develop a comprehensive plan to share with Chinese counterparts. The plan should focus on areas of practical intervention not on a wish list. Pakistan can start by designing Special Economic Zones according to standards of sustainable development and Green Civilisation. Plan and interventions for each SEZ should be designed according to the needs of the zone like on the basis of industry etc.

The writer is Director Research Uptake and Business Development, Sustainable Development Policy Institute

Published in Daily Times, October 31^st 2018.