Daily Times

The Bavarian state elections had been touted as a litmus test of sorts for the grand coalition in Berlin. Yet the preliminary results of Sunday’s polls paint a grim picture for German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

After all, two of her Bavarian allies – the Christian Socialist Union (CSU) and the Socialist Democratic Party (SDP) – did not perform well. The former secured 35.6 percent of the vote; meaning that the conservative party lost its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. As for the left-leaning SDP, it managed to bag just 9.7 percent of ballots. The biggest win went to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Its 10.2 percent takeaway will see it enter the Bavarian state assembly for the first time. Though, of course, the AfD made its debut in the national Parliament last year and now holds seats in 15 out of 16 states. The only good news is that the CSU, now tasked with forming a coalition government, has ruled out an electoral alliance with the AfD.

That being said, Merkel is not out of the woods yet. Her pro-refugee policy might have been lauded by global rights groups. But the opening of national borders that saw her welcome some one million in need of asylum lost her much support at home; despite western military intervention in the MENA region being directly responsible for mass displacements there. The fallout being renewed backing for the far-right. Yet it is likely not just Merkel’s coalition partners with whom she has fallen out of favour. For in two months the Chancellor will head to her own Christian Democrat Union (CDU) party congress. And it is there that she will seek re-election as chairperson.

And while CDU members are said to be throwing their weight behind their leader – there is now talk in pundit circles of the end of the Merkel era being nigh. This would naturally be humiliating for a woman who has long been the face of the European Union. Whether in terms of talking tough to member states as was the case in the Greek bailout back in 2010. Or else when berating the British premier over the elusive sweetheart Brexit deal.

Yet above and beyond all this, for other parts of the world the message is clear. As the rise of the European far-right continues unabated – so, too, does its forward march across internal Union borders. This is worrisome for countries like Pakistan that have sizeable immigrant populations in the EU. Already there have been reports of increased xenophobic-related violence.

It is therefore hoped that Chancellor Merkel succeeds in December to be returned to the party helm. And that she uses her good offices both at home and in Brussels to wean the bloc away from undue warmongering abroad.  *

Published in Daily Times, October 16^th 2018.