Daily Times

A few years ago, in this paper I had explored the buzz of Imran Khan’s politics. The history of the country can be written in shorthand with the help of a few buzz words. From ‘Islamisation’ to ‘Ehtesab’ we have seen different rulers justifying their actions; whether legitimate or otherwise. Being a sceptic about the use of marketing gimmicks, I do not easily get swayed by sweet sounding phrases and, therefore, I had in my op-ed proposed a seven questions framework to measure the success of anyone who claims to be a saviour of the nation.

The seven core questions were: 1) How will Pakistan repair the serious damage done to its international image because of its entanglement with militant jihadi outfits? 2) How will Pakistan improve economic growth by increasing its trade with the regional and other major trading nations? 3) How will the rule of law, accountability and transparency be promoted? 4) How will institution building be promoted in place of a personality cult? 5) How will the marginalised sections of society such as religious minorities, women, disabled persons, and economically deprived communities be empowered? 6) How will the demon of radicalisation and intolerance be exorcised? And 7) How will the civil-military relations be rationalised so that the civilian government is able to take full control of domestic and foreign policies?

To a great extent the seven questions are interrelated, and no saviour can succeed if even one question is ignored. Now, as Imran Khan has become the Prime Minister of Pakistan, the questions about the electoral process notwithstanding, we need to reappraise more seriously his determination and ability to deal with these seven questions. Heis often thin on details about the specifics of his public policy. Even Ayub and Musharraf had used an anti-corruption drive to gain public sympathy during their tenures, but the challenges of the country are much more diverse, and need aparadigmatic shift in core areas of foreign and internal policies.

No doubt charismatic leaders are always important for facilitating organisational change, but no leader can do this with a magic wand. The sources of the status quo must clearly be first understood, and only then can we measure the success of a leader in removing those constraints and hence facilitating the change. We can identify two main constraints in the case of Pakistan. One, we have big ambitions with a small kitty. We wish to be a regional power like India and China, without having the economic muscle of either. Our income is always less than our national expenditure, thus forcing us to seek loans and foreign aid. Second, there is no rule of law in the land. Due process of law is not only missing in day to day governance, but its absence becomes even more conspicuous when disregard of law pertains to the military.

Significant reduction in military expenditure in Pakistan can be made if the causes of threat perceptions are minimised. This in turn would require a new policy initiative with regards to India and Afghanistan

Making a nicely worded speech is an easy task, especially when a team of speech writers and consultants are at hand. But money makes the mare go. The devil is always in the details and in implementation measures. Every new premier soon finds out that in order to boost revenue, new taxation measures are needed. Imran and his associates have long been complaining about Federal Board of Revenue and low tax to GDP ratio. Now the ball is in their court. We will be waiting to see how tax to GDP ratio is doubled in a short span of time as was promised vigorously. Another possibility to ease the pressure on the fiscal equation is to rationalise expenditure. This would require cutting down extravagant expenditure, including defence spending. In the recent past, the austere life style of former Iranian President Ali Khamenei went viral on social media. This kind of playing to the crowd however doesn’t help the economy, unless followed by wide ranging austerity measures. The Late PM Junejo forced federal secretaries and army generals to use Suzuki cars. Something similar needs to be done by the new premier if he means business. But this shouldn’t end at these symbolic measures only. Military spending accounts for almost 25% of our total public expenditure. Imran Khan fondly quotes examples from the U.K. In the recent past, Britain has lived through an era of austerity savings which were extended by the Government to the military spending as well, while thousands of military personnel returning from the Iraq War were made redundant. Significant reduction in military expenditure in Pakistan can be made if the causes of threat perceptions are minimised. This in turn would require a new policy initiative with regards to India and Afghanistan. And Khan will be tested for boldness and anti-status quo passion as, like his predecessors, he will have to deal with the status quo of the GHQ-driven security paradigm.

It does not matter through which party gates the so called ‘electables’ enter the parliament. The only measure of success is whether Imran will be able to show the courage and sagacity to deal with the constraints of our public policy. Only then can the much hyped ‘status quo’ be changed. The 100 days have begun. And sceptics like me won’t be forgiving as we will be assessing Imran Khan on the basis of the seven questions’ framework cited in the preceding lines.

The writer teaches public policy in the UK and is the founding member of the Rationalist Society of Pakistan. He can be reached at hashah9@yahoo.com

Published in Daily Times, August 22^nd 2018.