Daily Times

The Islamic State, or ISIS, is becoming increasingly ruthless in its bloody campaign to railroad upcoming parliamentary elections in Afghanistan scheduled for this October.

This week saw it strike soft and hard targets alike. First came the cowardly attack by a suicide bomber on a Hazara school in Kabul that prepares students for university exams. The death toll stands at 34. Rights groups have already termed this assault a war crime. Indeed, across both sides of the Af-Pak border, this small Shia community is considered fair game by groups like ISIS; which, at times, collaborates with local sectarian outfits to do their worst. In the capital alone, the Hazara have suffered 13 separate attacks over the last two years. Thus Kabul must answer questions about the absence of safeguards for the most vulnerable. Especially given the presence of international forces in the country.

The second attack was, in many ways, even more audacious in terms of intent and wide-reaching ramifications. Here, the terror outfit targeted an intelligence training centre run by the National Security Directorate (the Afghan equivalent of the ISI). Equally alarming are reports that it took Afghan Special Forces, backed by advisors from the NATO-led Resolute Support mission, to contain and ultimately kill the two ISIS gunmen.

While it is of no comfort to the Afghan people, such an escalation of violence is to be expected. Pakistan witnessed the same in the run-up to its own general elections last month. With numerous assaults on political candidates, as well as on a Quetta voting station on polling day, claimed by ISIS. Such outfits have a one-point agenda: thwarting the democratic process. For such representative paradigms, envisioned as moderate, peaceful and inclusive in nature, represent a threat to the militants’ imagined grip on power. Thus the worst case scenario for ISIS is to be confronted with parliamentary democracies across both sides of the border.

Be that as it may, the point cannot be repeated enough that the US, as the occupying military force, holds ultimate responsibility for overall security. The same must hold true when it comes to tracing the rise of ISIS and linkages to American misadventures in Iraq and Libya and Syria; as well as the collective blowback in Afghanistan, which is already spilling over into Pakistan. Moreover, Washington must rethink its definition of success in all these countries. And this, as Islamabad understands only too well, needs to exclude a numbers game that seeks to nudge militants over borders to claim superficial victory. This was a gross misstep when the CIA, as far back as 2010, declared Afghanistan a success story on the grounds that all but a handful — a mere 40 or 50 — of Al Qaeda operatives remained within national borders. The rest had, by Washington’s account, fled to the Pakistani badlands. Which, in turn, brought this country once more in the line of US fire on the question of so-called safe-havens.

None of which is a credible substitute for realpolitik. Thereby leaving the Afghan people firmly between a rock and an incredibly hard place. A foreign troop withdrawal will allow ISIS to unleash its worst with relative impunity. By the same token, staying put will not stem the violence. Not when in the midst of bilateral US talks, the Taliban continues to target the state while battling ISIS.

Thus the future looks incredibly bleak. Unless Washington is ready to admit that 17 years into its longest war — it must go back to the drawing board on policy.  *

Published in Daily Times, August 18^th 2018.