The future of the Indo-Pak rivalry

Author: Syed Moazzam Hashmi

“Oh, you are from Islamabad. I heard it’s beautiful”, chuckled the immigration officer. Bubbling with excitement, he expressed a desire to visit Pakistan one day. I was amongst the few passengers from my flight who remained at the New Delhi airport, awaiting my turn to fill in the special entry/exit forms mandatory for Pakistanis leaving India. Helping me fill the forms, the immigration officer apologised for the inconvenience, and wondered aloud when these travel complications between India and Pakistan would end?

The disputes between India and Pakistan are political and strategic in nature. When our people interact, there is no animosity. If anything, there is a lot of curiosity and the two sides are very cordial to one another. It is clearly evident that the ethno-cultural affinity between the two peoples is stronger than the politicised enmity created by the political, military and bureaucratic leadership of the two countries over the years.

Though the pain of partition has subsided over the decades, the ongoing Fifth Generation Warfare (FGW) between the two countries threatens to create new wounds. The situation is exacerbated by the poor understanding that young people on both sides of the border have of their history, which makes them more vulnerable to negative propaganda

Since childhood, I have heard divergent views on the partition of British India. I have also watched the leaders of the two countries engage in political mud slinging against each other for various political and strategic ends while socio-economic indicators on both sides of the border have remained pathetic. Today, the Subcontinent is one of the most populated and impoverished regions in the world.

Though the pain of partition has subsided over the decades, the ongoing Fifth Generation Warfare (FGW) between the two countries threatens to create new wounds. The situation is exacerbated by the poor understanding that young people on both sides of the border have of their history, which makes them more vulnerable to negative propaganda.

Today, right-wing fundamentalism is rising across the globe and India is no exception. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government and its Hindutva allies are extremely hostile to Pakistan. Their jingoism has disrupted all peace initiatives made in recent years. However, the right-wing politico-religious players in Pakistan suffered a shocking defeat in the recent polls.

Though the pain of partition has subsided over the decades, the ongoing Fifth Generation Warfare (FGW) between the two countries threatens to create new wounds. The situation is exacerbated by the poor understanding young people on both side of the border have of their history, which makes them more vulnerable to negative propaganda

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi used Hindu-nationalism to win the last elections in India and he will do so again. However, the whole landscape might change if another political party gets into power in India. Meanwhile, despite the losses suffered by the extremist parties in Pakistan, Islamist fundamentalism remains a threat. They might have been defeated on the political front but they are still active and organised. The world’s larger security-bureaucratic industrial complexes have their own reasons for keeping this furnace hot, and will add fuel to the fire when they see fit. The continued violation of human rights and atrocities by Indian forces against innocent Kashmiris also makes peace harder to achieve.

However, China can be a force of change here. Given the rising volume of China’s investment in the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, it seems that the investors are holding an ace in this gamble. Afterall, they wouldn’t want to lose their investment to nuclear war!

Some are saying Imran Khan could be the Pakistani premier who finally buries the Indo-Pakistan rivalry for good. This perception exists because of the fans and admirers he has in India. However, General Ziaul Haq had also employed cricket diplomacy but gained nothing. There are other factors that also have to be taken into account. The legacy of partition is still an effective tool for rabble-rousing politicians on both sides of the LoC. Aside from religion, nothing manipulates public opinion better than the wrongs (real or imagined) done to the citizenry’s ancestors.

The writer is Senior Journalist and former Political Affairs Advisor to the US Consulate General in Karachi

Published in Daily Times, August 15th 2018.

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