Daily Times

The Caspian (Sea) Summit has concluded. In a first, the governments of the five coastal states — Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — have signed what has been hailed as a landmark deal on the territorial status of the world’s largest inland body of water.

After more than two decades of wrangling, these Central Asian nations have signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. In effect, this establishes a formula to divide maritime resources while preventing other powers from setting up military presence. In this regard at least, it is a positive development.

Be that as it may, for many it represents but a first step towards further talks. For the Convention has not resolved the fundamental question of whether or not the basin qualifies as a sea or lake. Rather, it simply allows “special legal status”. Had it been declared a sea, the UN Law of the Sea would have been the governing treaty to determine natural resource management and territorial rights. As a lake, maritime access would be divided equally between all littoral states. Iran, having the smallest coastline, stands alone in its advocating for sea status. That being said, all are expected to enjoy freedom of access extending beyond territorial waters.

The Caspian Sea is important given that it is home to vast oil and gas reserves. Indeed, an estimated 50 million barrels of oil and close to 300 trillion cubic feet (8.4 trillion cubic metres) of natural gas lie beneath the seabed. Not only that, 80-90 percent of the world’s caviar is sourced from there. And then there the not un-small matter of how it bridges two continents: Asia and Europe. All of which means that the basin has long been on the US geo-strategic radar.

Indeed, back in the 1990s, the Americans believed that the Taliban held the key to Afghan stability. Thus they reportedly supported the regime, through common allies Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The US was also famously involved in direct negotiations with the Taliban in a bid to position its companies at the forefront of lucrative pipeline investment projects in Afghanistan; all the better to diversify traditional oil and gas dependencies. Added bonuses were the promise of luring Central Asian oil states away from the traditional Russian sphere of influence and thwarting Iranian regional aspirations.

Nevertheless, the most important aspect of the Convention is perhaps the provision barring Caspian nations from opening maritime borders to third-party aggressors such as the US and NATO. A resounding triumph for Russia’s Putin, this naturally deals a blow to American territorial ambitions in the region. It could also potentially jeopardise the recent pact concluded by Washington and Kazakhstan allowing for the opening of ports as an alternative transit route to deliver US military supplies to Afghanistan.

Thus it seems that the Americans have lost this round.  *

Published in Daily Times, August 14^th 2018.