Daily Times

At the outset, I am not a predictions guy, especially in the genre associated with politics in Pakistan. Apparently, the rule is to make a huge bunch of predictions and when the law of averages work in your favour and one turns out right, immediately start replaying the prediction and advertising extensively that you were right, while strutting like a peacock. However, forecasting based on reasonable assumptions are a different matter, not because they have a better chance of coming true but because they simultaneously identify risks, even if uncertain, which perhaps need to be catered for going forward.

A little while ago, I had tried to highlight the risks identified in the World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report 2016, primarily with the intention of nudging interest, away from the Panama leaks, towards substantive risks, which might befall the country in the future. While I remain completely apolitical in this column, we have been embroiled with the leaks for umpteen months and Judge Time does not wait for anyone.

As with risks, the WEF published a take by experts from their Global Future Council on what the world might look like in 2030, which if you do the math is 14 years later. While some of the predictions seem overly fantastic, they just might not be considering that the world seems to be changing exponentially compared with simply lumbering along less than a couple of decades ago. In all probability, my generation feels that being referred to as a dinosaur is not exactly a metaphor, and, perhaps, nostalgically recalls the good old days when the earliest you could get mail was a day later until someone invented the fax machine. Readers belonging to the smartphone era might Google “Fax Machine” to educate themselves.

Of the eight predictions for 2030, all products becoming services tops the list for me in terms of imagination. In the particular author’s view there will be no privacy, which frankly does not come as a surprise, but what might traumatically worry the ladies is that he predicts that shopping will die, seriously! Artificial Intelligence and Robots will take over all the work and mankind will have easy access to transportation, accommodation, food and all the things needed in daily life; seems like utopia with one confusion, how will the rich get richer? Frankly, I am pretty skeptical about all that happening in Pakistan by 2030, or even a few decades thereafter even. And even if it did come to pass, I am not sure how we will pay for it.

What should be worrisome for our planners is the prediction of investment in renewable energy, which will quadruple, while divestment from coal will become widespread; the author predicts that the fossil fuel lobby will be a thing of the past. Last month, France inaugurated the world’s first one-kilometer solar road, which, if the project works out, will redefine power generation. Perhaps, it would make sense for our decision makers to revisit the terms of fossil fuel based power generation projects currently in the development phase.

While I am not sure whether the US President Trump is expected to be the catalyst, the third prediction is about America losing its dominance of the world. There will be a handful of global powers which it is predicted will include Russia, China, Germany, Japan and worryingly India. Globalisation is expected to fail at hastening the irrelevance of the nation-state, all of which has repercussions for Pakistan, economic and otherwise. To venture a guess, this particular prediction is not very far from the target.

The good news is that robotics and genetics in a networked age will result in major breakthroughs in the field of medicine. The disruption by technology is predicted to reduce the number of diseases requiring management; hopefully, Pakistan too will be rid of polio and the best part is that the author predicts that organs, tissues and supporting structures like bones or ligaments will be biologically 3D-printed on demand. Medical predictions are unfortunately silent about whether science will be able to reduce body fat while you eat to your heart’s delight; no clue on a cure for baldness as well!

Again, unfortunately, predictions on what we will eat by 2030 are rather boring nutritious convenience, most probably engineered, foods, which perhaps takes care of the obesity problem by default. No predictions on new kinds of eat-all-you-want chocolates and ice cream.

The predictions on democracy remain rather optimistic as expected, except that it is acknowledged that democracy will need its checks and balances. According to the author, “Democracy was understood to require not simply periodic free and fair elections but also human rights and the rule of law”.

That might have come as a huge surprise for politicians and media alike in this country. The prediction that democratic traditions will continue, does, however, conflicts my own prediction—which I rarely make—that the world will see once again be ruled by monarchs by 2050. The argument is simple. The elites are now fed up with the masses that were expected to be pacified and satisfied with the one vote; nowhere in its blueprint did democracy ever promise more, the rest was always an illusion.

And finally the fun part, except that I am ignoring a couple of predictions relating to the world of warships and central banking which have the potential of making all other predictions, at least, redundant. We will be ready to start sending people to Mars; the plural pronoun does not refer to Pakistanis. I sincerely hope that if this prediction actually becomes reality, they design a spaceship similar to the starship Enterprise!

Dear Readers, this column has always tried to break the monotony of stereotype write ups, and be entertaining with a bit of comedy now and then. So I hope that everyone enjoyed the predictions before getting back to tremendously important Panama melee. On a more serious note, one can only hope that someone out there at the helm of power is keeping a watchful eye on global developments because if even half of what is predicted comes true, we will definitely be up the creek; without a paddle.

The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad and can be reached at syed.bakhtiyarkazmi@gmail.com