Daily Times

By the time these lines appear before you, a series of open letters and columns have already been printed, some congratulating Imran Khan, the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), for his phenomenal success, others berating him for his dubious political career and a tainted electoral victory. But it does not matter anymore, does it? Whether one likes it or not, and whether one accepts the fairness of the elections or not, the fact stays the same: PTI has emerged as the largest political party in the parliament and Imran Khan is going to be the next prime minister of Pakistan.

Besides that, there is one more fact that also has stayed the same: our deepening economic crisis. Overtime, Pakistan has buried itself up to its neck in debt to the point that it is struggling on daily basis to maintain the balance of payments, looking up to IMF for a bailout package every few years to avoid bankruptcy and international embarrassment.

Would PTI be able to steer us out of this quagmire? In fact, a more pertinent question would be: does it even understand why we are lagging so behind? When asked, PTI folks underestimate the complexity of financial circumstances. Finding corruption as the root cause of all evils, they follow a very simple rule to solve the problems: honest leadership with a team of educated people in the government will stop bribery and profiteering that will result in a dramatic improvement in every department: Railways, PIA, police, economy, health care and so forth. In just a few years following this strategy, Pakistan will become a booming economy. Simple! They either doubt or ignore the attempts made by previous administrations to jumpstart the economy. For them everyone before them was a criminal and should be investigated.

Pakistan has buried itself up to its neck in debt to the point that it struggles to maintain the balance of payments and looks to IMF for a bailout package every few years to avoid bankruptcy and international embarrassment

The fact is that every government in the last few decades, both civilian and the military, has sincerely tried to solve the economic riddle. Why wouldn’t they? We know a good economy ensures political stability thus more time in power. The administrations sought the help of foreign graduates, world renowned economists, financial advisors, international bankers and recognised industrialists, each one of whom juggled as much as one could yet the outcome of their efforts stands before us, the dollar rupee disparity is rising, inflation is going up, the trade deficit is widening and revenue generation is trailing far behind.

Seriously, do you believe Dr Mehboobul Haq, Shaukat Aziz and Shaukat Tareen were drenched in corruption? To tell you the truth, each one had a successful personal career before taking charge and each one was appointed to serve only one purpose and one purpose alone. Of course, political constraints did not allow them to work as freely, but that is not same as corruption.

Following the same culture, PTI’s team will most likely be led by Asad Umer, the former CEO of Engro corporation, a man with a clean reputation and a successful personal career. He will also enjoy some flexibility in the beginning like the Finance Ministers before him and then the same factors will tie his hands. We also know he is not an economist by training or education. He has business and administrative experience for sure, but the economy, everyone knows, is an entirely different beast. Is he capable of understanding the basics of macroeconomy then? How to add political factors in financial matters? I am not too sure.

While talking to private news channel, he said PTI will send teams to China to study how the world’s second largest economy was able to lift its people out of poverty. If we take him by his words, the process of understanding has yet to begin! The teams have yet to be formed and sent. If done properly, the project can take years before it can present its recommendations since the economy is such a complicated subject intertwined with culture, religion, education, law, and social forces. So more likely than not, the teams will produce a handy, precooked, formula in a matter of weeks like a packaged meal without having any clue about its feasibility for Pakistan. What will be the end result of such a recipe? Nothing but failure, as it has always happened.

I do not want to be cynical towards a government that is yet to take oath. What I want to say though is that we have been on this route before. Instead of a relying on a precooked recipe, it is inevitable now that we think out of the box now and come up with our own way of dealing with problems. We need to think more of Lalu Prasad Yadav who revitalised and reinvigorated the Indian Railways a few years ago relying upon innovation from within rather than depending on foreign investments and help. We also need to think like Muhammad Younus, the founder of Grameen Bank, who introduced the concept of microcredit and microfinance. But whatever we do, we need to remain practical and realistic in our approach.

The writer is a US-based freelance columnist. He tweets at @KaamranHashmi and can be reached at skamranhashmi@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, August 9^th 2018.