Daily Times

Imran Khan will be comfortable to push for better understanding with Afghanistan as the two uneasy neighbours are currently engaged in a comprehensive dialogue process. The country’s military is part of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS), a joint action plan for cooperation in the areas of counter-terrorism and reduction of violence, peace and reconciliation, bilateral trade and transit, connectivity and promoting people-to-people contacts.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was among the few world leaders who spoke to Imran Khan after the latter’s victory in the recently held general elections. “We both agreed to overcome the past and to lay a new foundation for a prosperous political, social and economic future of both countries Afghanistan and Pakistan,” he later tweeted. Ghani’s phone is a strong indication that his government wants to bury the hatchet.

Imran Khan’s government will not be under pressure to bring the Taliban to the table as Taliban political representatives have already opened direct talks with the United States with both sides holding their first meeting on July 23 in Qatar, where the Taliban have a political office.

Pakistan’s role cannot be ruled out in this apparent breakthrough. However, Pakistan was not involved in the July 23 meeting between a US team headed by top American diplomat Alice Wells and the Taliban delegation led by Sher Abbas Stanekzai, who heads the Taliban office in the oil rich Guff state.

The challenge to make Taliban sit with the Afghan government persists and Kabul would expect Pakistan to play its role for an Afghan-led and Afghan-owed peace process, as Pakistan has already agreed for cooperation in the APAPPS. Foreign Office spokesman Dr Faisal said on July 12 that Pakistan is directly engaged with the Afghan government under the APAPPS mechanism on Taliban. The challenge will remain implementation of the seven key principles of APAPPS as inaction by both countries could prove to be a spoiler.

Although Islamabad pushes for the role of all stakeholders in the reconciliation, the US and Kabul believe that Pakistan has more influence on the Taliban than others. This is true to a large extent but the impression in Afghanistan that Pakistan controls the Talibanis not true. However, it does not absolve Pakistan of its more active role in the neighbouring county which is burning in a destructive war for nearly four decades.

Pakistan has been encouraging the Taliban to come to the table. Taliban confirmed earlier this year that a five-member delegation from their political office in Qatar visited Pakistan to discuss its proposals for possible peace negotiations.

Taliban had long been demanding direct talks with the Americans as they consider the US as a major party to the conflict. Americans have now showed flexibility in their stance but this policy may not continue for a long time and the US and all other stakeholders would press the Taliban to talk to the Afghan government.

The Taliban’s position of not talking to the Kabul administration will not get support as the international community and almost all stakeholders, including Pakistan, insist on an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led peace process.

It is now the Taliban’s turn to respond positively to the peace calls and join the intra-Afghan dialogue, enabling Afghans to decide their future themselves. The 2016 peace deal between Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar with President Ashraf Ghani’s National Unity Government is a success story and Hekmatyar, who returned to Kabul in May 2017after nearly 20 years, is now part of the political system and his party is also taking part in parliamentary elections to be held in October this year.

Imran’s quest of an open border with Afghanistan in his victory speech on July 26 is a test case for him as this sensitive issue is believed to be under the domain of the security establishment. The military is fencing the porous border with Afghanistan to chock all routes for the insurgents, blamed for violence in both the countries. Afghans, particularly Pashtoon living on both sides, view Pakistan’s border fencing as a move to divide them.

Afghans were quick to welcome Imran’s announcement of opening of border, like the European Union. Besides fencing of most parts of the nearly 2,600-kilometre border, Pakistan had also enforced passport and visa condition in 2016 for all Afghans who enter Pakistan via Torkham crossing. This mechanism will be gradually extended to all other crossing points.

An open border with Afghanistan seems to be impossible in the current security environment as the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan is fighting Pakistani forces and Pakistanis say TTP and other Pakistani militant groups have sanctuaries in Afghanistan border regions. But, Pakistan needs to formulate an open visa policy for Afghans as thousands of them are seen daily outside the Pakistani embassy in Kabul and consulate in Jalalabad to get Pakistan visa. Big crowd of Afghan visa seekers is a proof Afghans want to come to Pakistan for education, trade and treatment. There are also thousands of cases of inter-marriages on both sides of the border.

Pakistan under Imran faces another challenge: how to win back its market in Afghanistan. Traders in both countries say bilateral trade has decreased to nearly 1.2 billion dollars from 2.6 billion dollars in just two years, citing tense relations, imposition of additional duties and closure of border by Pakistan.

In 2014, Pakistan and Afghanistan had agreed to increase bilateral trade to 5 billion dollars in five years. However, currently it stands at 1.2 billion dollars, according to Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chambers of Commerce and Industry. Some traders in Khyber Paktunkhwa claim that Pak-Afghan trade has decreased to the alarming figure of 500 million dollars only, which is equal to the Pak-Afghan trade during the Taliban regime during 1996-2001.

Published in Daily Times, August 6^th 2018.