Daily Times

KARACHI: The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has increased its strength in the provincial assembly of Sindh after the 2018 elections, however, it has also received some serious setbacks in constituencies and areas in Karachi and Larkana, long considered its strongholds, notwithstanding allegations of rigging on the polling day.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has made gains at the cost of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), who has lost its grip over the coastal city of Karachi. The anti-PPP Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) and Mustafa Kamal-ed Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) fell as quickly as it had rose in the run up to the elections.

The five party religious alliance Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) and the far-right new entrant into electoral politics Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) got surprise successes in some areas of Karachi.

In Karachi, PTI has won 14 of the 21 NA seats, while MQM secured just four, the lowest number of seats won by it in the city since its formation in the early 1980s. Despite a vigorous campaign led by its chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the PPP couldn’t put up an impressive show in the city. It took just three seats, and was voted out for the first time in 40 years in one of its strongholds, Lyari.

Of the 44 provincial seats in the city, PTI won 23, MQM got 12, PPP five, TLP two and MMA just one.

Districts where PPP made gains

Outside of the provincial capital, however, the PPP made gains compared to its 2013 position, emerging as the single largest party in the provincial assembly.

Sanghar has been a stronghold of Pir Pagaro-led Pakistan Muslim League (Functional), a constituent of the GDA. However, this year, the PPP emerged as the largest party here. It won all three NA seats, a first in the district’s electoral history. It won three of the six provincial assembly seats. In 2013, the PPP secured two NA and three Sindh Assembly seats in the district.

Ameer Bux Burdi, a local journalist, maintains that the party’s better performance was owed to the development works carried out in the last five years. These included establishment of a university campus, construction of roads, a project for provision of potable water in Achhro Thar Desert, and setting up of medical camps in the area.

In Ghotki, PPP had won both NA seats and all four Sindh Assembly seats in 2013. But the influential Mahar clan was divided this year, as a powerful group led by Ali Gohar Mahar joined hands with the GDA, while another group remained loyal to the PPP. The departure of the Mahar clan was seen as major pre-poll upset for PPP, but it managed to keep an NA seat, while the GDA got the other one.

The PPP improved its position compared to 2013 in Khairpur by winning all three NA, and six out of seven Sindh Assembly seats in the district. The seventh seat was won by the GDA.

In 2013, PML-F had won two NA seats and PPP one. PPP won four of the six provincial seats, while the PML-N wo two.

The major setback for GDA here was the loss of Pir Sadaruddin Shah, brother of the Pir Pagaro, in NA-209 that is home to Pir Jo Goth – the headquarters of Hur Jammat.

GDA’s Muhammad Ismail Shah, son of Sadaruddin Shah, and Ghous Ali Shah, former Sindh Chief Minister, also lost on provincial assembly seats. Muhammad Rashid Shah, son of Pir Pagaro, managed to win on PS-32.

In many polling stations, GDA candidates did not even have polling agents, showing their lack of preparation for the polling day.

Two of the three NA seats in Hyderabad were won by the MQM and one by the PPP in 2013. Of the six provincial seats, MQM won four and PPP took two.

In 2018, the numbers of MQM and PPP stayed the same on NA seat, but the latter managed to win one more provincial seat than 2013.

Political observers maintain that it’s a win-win situation for PPP and MQM in the district. While the former made gains, the latter managed to keep afloat.

Ishaq Mangrio, a local journalist, attributes PPP’s victory on the third provincial seat to inclusion of new areas in PS-64, that has traditionally been won by the MQM. “These new rural areas included after last year’s delimitations have Sindhi, Punjabi and Pashto speaking population. The Hindu community in these areas also supported the PPP.”

In Sukkur, PPP had won both NA seats and three out of four provincial seats in Sukkur in 2013. The fourth seat was won by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). This year, the PPP clean swept the election by winning all six seats.

Taj Rind, a local journalist, notes that divisions in the Urdu speaking vote bank enabled the PPP to make gains in the district. “PTI could have made an impact but due to internal differences, it could not put up a good show. Apart from that, the PPP government started several development works as well, including establishment of five universities and a National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases (NICVD).

PPP and the Shirazi group (then with the PML-N) had won an NA seat each in Thatta in 2013.

After the elections, the district was bifurcated and a new administrative unit, Sajawal, was carved out of it. The areas remaining in Thatta got a single NA and three PS seats in the 2018 election. PPP managed to clean sweep here as it was supported by the Shirazi group as well.

With the support of the Shirazi group, the PPP won the NA and two PS seats in Sujawal this year.

In Naushehro Feroze, the PPP and the National Peoples Party (NPP) won an NA seat each here in 2013. Of the four PS seats, the PPP won three and the NPP one.

This year, PPP secured both NA seats, and retained three of the four PS seats. The fourth seat was grabbed by the GDA.

Defying the odds:

In Badin and Mirpurkhas, the PPP was faced with defections of powerful local patrons. However, it still managed to retain its hold over these districts.

Badin remained a safe haven for the party until 2013 general elections when it grabbed both NA and four of the five Sindh Assembly seats. The PML-N secured the remaining seat.

The July 25 contest was a test for the party because of the exit of politically influential Mirza family who had joined hands with the GDA.

However, the GDA managed to grab only two seats, including an NA seat won by former NA speaker Dr Fehmida Mirza and a PS seat won by her son Hasnain Mirza. Zulfiqar Mirza lost his seat to the PPP rival.

Hanif Samoon, a local journalist, states that Fehmida Mirza can lose the seat in the recount since her margin of victory is too narrow at 650 votes.

“the Mirza family failed to make an impact on the polling day. Local leaders like Gul Muhammad Jakhrani and Krishna Kohli played an important role in convincing voters to cast ballots for the PPP,” he said.

PPP won both NA and three of the four PS seats in Mirpurkhas in 2013. The fourth seat was won by the MQM.

In 2018, the party lost an NA seat to Ali Nawaz Shah, who was formerly associated with it. Meanwhile, the PPP gained a PS seat, winning all four in the district.

Shahid Khaskheli, a local journalist, notes that the overall performance of the party remained better than expected.

Unchanged from 2013

In Shaheed Benazirabad (formerly Nawabshah), hometown of PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari, the party won both NA and five Sindh Assembly seats in 2013. The district got a fifth PS seat in the latest delimitations, and all seven seats were secured by the PPP.

Like 2013, the PPP grabbed the single NA and all three Sindh Assembly seats in Umerkot. This is the fourth consecutive win of the party in the district, only this time it has increased its margin of victory.

Allah Bux Arisar, a local journalist, notes that strong arm tactics of the Arbab group pushed the population away from them. The voters also rejected Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, PTI vice chairman who heads the Ghousia Jamaat, because he shows up when there are elections, Arisar says.

The PPP’s performance remained the same as 2013 in Jamshoro, Tharparkar, Matiari, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Dadu, Shikarpur, Kamber Shahdadkot, and Kashmore districts.

Losing ground

The party has lost ground in the Bhutto family’s native Larkana district as well as in Jacobabad.

In 2013, it won both NA and all four Sindh Assembly seats here. For the first time in the last 25 years, the party lost a PS seat in the district. On PS-11, PPP Sindh chapter president Nisar Khuhro’s papers were rejected after which the party fielded his daughter Nida Khuhro, who lost to GDA’s Moazzam Abbasi, son of ex-MPA Munawar Abbasi and nephew of estranged PPP leader Dr Safdar Abbasi.

On the NA seat won by PPP chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the party conceded 55,000 votes to his opponent MMA’s Rashid Soomro.

The PPP had won both NA and all three of the Sindh Assembly seats in Jacobabad in 2013. The latest delimitations left the district with just one NA seat which was won by Muhammad Mian Soomro, PTI’s candidate who has served as the president and prime minister in the past. The PPP won two of the three PS seats. The third one was secured by the PTI.

With additional reports from Daily Times district correspondents Abdul Mateen Mahar, Waheed Phulpoto, and Jamal Dawoodpoto

Published in Daily Times, August 4^th 2018.