Daily Times

Poised to become the Prime Minister (PM). Imran Khan, Chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will soon lead a new coalition government. Among the acute challenges will be severe economic stress. Foreign exchange reserves have depleted due to widening of the current account deficit and repayment of previous loans. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) may be approached for a $10 to $15 billion bailout package to stabilise the external sector. Rather difficult given that the US has a say in IMF affairs and US-Pakistan relations are at their lowest ebb. Out of the blue came a warning shot, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warning Pakistan, “There’s no rationale for IMF tax dollars, and associated with that American dollars that are part of the IMF funding, for those to go to bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself”. While the coupling of one with the other is mystifying, for the foreseeable future the IMF option appears closed. With the talk of a bailout by China not confirmed, the PTI government needs to engage Washington pragmatically, apprising them of the new dynamics emerging in the region and the need for both the countries to have a more constructive relationship.

The first 10 months of fiscal year 2018saw Pakistan’s current account deficit widening by almost 50 percent, to a record high of $14.03 billion. This deficit has taken a toll on foreign exchange reserves, which have now sunk to around $9 billion. Before starting to appreciate after the July 25 elections, the Pakistani rupee depreciated alarmingly against the dollar, rising briefly beyond Rs130. Pakistan’s debt has increased to an unsustainable level of Rs 24.5 trillion or 72 percent of the total size of the economy (domestic debt Rs16.5 trillion and external debt Rs8 trillion). The fiscal and trade deficits have also reached an all-time high. Imran Khan promised mass reform, giving top priority to the making of strategy and policies in consultation with the business community and the private sector to bring Pakistan out of this imbroglio.

A fiery opposition has refused to accept the electoral results, however Imran Khan has already waved an olive branch by offering to have any constituency investigated where it is believed irregularities have taken place. A huge dose of pragmatism is now needed, the new government must do everything in its power to develop a working relationship with the opposition based on new realities. Imran Khan must now go the extra mile, taking on the mantle of a mature, non-partisan and patriotic politician having only the best interests of the nation and its people at heart; it is said that leaders must very often manage change, even if the change is unpopular. While a strong opposition is vital for any democracy, it must ensure that it plays its role as an alternative viewpoint to proposals and to generate debate. It must refrain from hounding and criticising the majority only for the sake of it, as has sadly become the norm in Pakistan. The combined opposition must serve the country by providing honest checks and balances needed in a functioning democracy, and shunning opposition for the sake of opposition.

A fiery opposition has refused to accept the electoral results, however Imran Khan has already waved an olive branch by offering to have any constituency investigated where it is believed irregularities have taken place

Imran Khan has promised to work towards the success of CPEC and has stated wants to send teams to learn about poverty alleviation from China and utilize their model to improve the lives of Pakistan’s poor and downtrodden. PTI’s manifesto also reiterates its desire to take friendship with China to new heights. The presence of any non-state actors in Pakistan is bound to put extra pressure on Pakistan. Another serious challenge that Imran Khan might face will be the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) meeting scheduled for September 18, where the issue of non-state actors could be debated.

Speaking in a televised address on July 26, Imran Khan opened his heart to the nation without the aid of scripts or notes. He came across as someone truly humble and mature, he was conciliatory in not blaming anyone for the past but looked ahead to the future. He vowed that there would be no political victimisation and that state institutions would be strengthened to ensure they were truly independent. Setting a personal example, he offered himself for accountability and called for harmonious relations with all neighbours and major powers, including the US. Both in Pakistan and abroad, the reaction to his speech was largely favourable with many saying that Imran Khan has graduated from being just a politician to a statesman.

Imran Khan must deliver on the promises made by him, which are fighting corruption and bringing looted wealth back to Pakistan, ensuring across-the-board accountability and providing jobs by reviving at least 100 industries. New legislation must ensure that the process is impartial. Strong liaison with foreign governments will be needed to craft fresh treaties and agreements for extradition of criminals, repatriation of the robbed assets to the country of origin and curb money laundering. The looming water crisis, energy shortages, internal and external security factors will also have to be tackled. Foreign policy challenges have multiplied because of mismanagement by PML-N’s Foreign Minister. The road to Naya Pakistan appears littered with pitfalls and obstacles, the job is certainly not going to be an easy one, but the new government must have the will to make unpopular and difficult decisions.

Spare a thought for the soldiers of our armed forces and the peace we enjoy because of their blood, sweat and toil. The PTI must also have a plan to deal with terrorism. The people would not have been able to cast their votes on July 25 without our soldiers standing guard. The army went the extra mile to ensure a clean and fair electoral process.

Setting a high bench mark for himself, Imran Khan and his party members will have to rise above petty personal and political prejudices. Challenges are only a means of achieving goals, an opportunity for renewal and change for those who have the capability, competence and will to meet the challenges head on. Imran and the PTI will have to prove themselves worthy of the trust the voters of Pakistan have put in them.

The writer is a defence and security analyst

Published in Daily Times, August 3^rd 2018.