Daily Times

Since its inception, Pakistan is not naïve to political circus and farcical innuendos. While the recent elections have been accepted as legitimate, there is no denying that there were numerous coincidences which made it seem similar to previous farcical performances this country has witnessed. These coincidences can be seen as far back as 2013.

It is now clear that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) putsch in 2013 had been foiled by the then caretaker governments, particularly in the Punjab under the watchful Mr Najam Sethi who exhibited sufficient nerves and resolve to stand by the rules. Other contributing factors were a strong political consensus, particularly between the two major parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the non-complete surrender by the highest judiciary and civilian institutions to the security establishment.

Resultantly, PTI could anchor in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to the decades old strong network and hold of the establishment and its ability to use all instruments of propaganda. Historically, the public opinion in this province is more susceptible to rumours and propaganda, particularly if it comes from the outside.

It solicits scientific social and anthropological research to get to its roots and causes, but one obvious reason is the psychological sense of individual superiority which is not swayed by internal dynamics but easily moved by voices disguised as impartial out of the so-called social hierarchies. The establishment with all the necessary resources exploits this weakness for political engineering to its optimal level.

The PTI began to consolidate its advantage with the first dharna against Nawaz Sharif and the unilateral use of media power against all parties in the parliament except itself. However, this was efficiently countered by the employment of social media, particularly by the PML-N. The party’s developmental projects coupled with the efforts to control the energy crisis somewhat pushed back the onslaught especially in the hinterland of Punjab.

But the Panama leaks and the ascendency of Saqib Nisar as the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) removed whatever obstacles remained in the way. From this point onwards, numerous tactics were employed to soften, or outright eliminate the establishment’s political targets.

This, combined with how the polling process for some odd reason moved slowly in constituencies with strong anti PTI potentials sealed the deal. In some instances, polling agents were also intimidated.

A bomb blast in front of the polling station in Quetta in the first half of the day that also had a role to play. By midday, the PkMAP provincial president sent a written complaint asking the ECP to take notice of how the chaos had caused polling to stop, and that ballot stuffing was taking place in various stations in NA-263 Qaila Abdullah. Sadly, ECP took no action.

Strangely enough, this was the case in many constituencies, particularly where well known or strong candidates were standing against the PTI. Results were delayed for several hours and the final tabulation on the specified Form-45 was also not provided. At numerous constituencies the numbers of rejected votes were more than the margin of winning candidates. The recounted results in some constituencies is indicative of what happened during vote count and tallying.

Of course there was much criticism of the army being deployed inside polling stations. However, considering that the so called ‘establishment favourites’ such as Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, Milli Muslim League and Chaudhry Nisar lost, they do have plausible deniability

Of course there was much criticism of the army being deployed inside polling stations. However, considering that the so called ‘establishment favourites’ such as Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, Milli Muslim League and Chaudhry Nisar lost, they do have plausible deniability. However, critics argue that these candidates were used as spoilers to make a dent in the PML-N vote bank in Punjab.

All major and small parties, except PTI, rejected the election result and called it the most blatantly rigged election in the history of Pakistan. The European Union Election Observation Mission (EUEOM) expressed its concerns about the free and fairness of the election. It is a rarity for EUEOM to express concerns directly or openly as the body mostly dilates on the positive, but perhaps it was unavoidable by its standards.

Regardless of whether the elections were rigged or not, for the security establishment, what happened was still better than what a direct coup would have entailed. The short and long term consequences of a tainted mandate for the PTI is also something that should be considered.

Regardless, numerous well-meaning commentators have advised a ‘move on’ strategy. Our history is replete with this mantra. After every martial law, political engineering and manipulation, the politicians adopt the safe option. The question is, has ‘moving on’ taken us forward or kept us swirling in a vicious circle? If the move on option can guarantee to free the country from future political manipulations, political engineering and diluted democratic process then it should be taken. But if there is no guarantee then it should be challenged once and for all to break the vicious circle.

What Imran can deliver with the mandate given to him does not require rocket science to predict. All of his promises are impossible to keep without challenging the current security state paradigm which requires a shift from the geo-strategic to geo-economic model.

Nawaz had to be disciplined numerous times because he mustered the courage to challenge this very model. Could Imran make any dent in the steel frame or be used to repair the few scratches — primarily the 18th Amendment — inflicted by the previous two elected governments?

Imran will wade in shallow waters of governance and the controlled media can take care of his performance like PTI’s previous government in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for as long as he abides by the TORs. As far as a genuine welfare is concerned, the state of Pakistan is constantly trumpeted as a divine blessing to its citizens who are expected to suffer and sacrifice in the form of their devotion without mundane return. For the moment felicitations are in order. Welcome to the new Pakistan!

The writer is a political analyst hailing from Swat. Tweets @MirSwat

Published in Daily Times, July 30^th 2018.