Daily Times

You might be reading this article on the Election Day itself or right after the elections. There is one aspect missing in the current discourse on perceived manipulation of election, the deafening silence of international community.

There is an old maxim that three things decide the nature of political outcomes in Pakistan: Allah, America and Army. While, there is plenty being written in the international press on the role of the military in these elections, the US is mostly silent. So are Britain and the EU. I just came across one statement from Washington calling for freedom of press and civil society in Pakistan a while back. Just a single statement over the course of months of discourse on election manipulation in Pakistan. I am curious about the silence of the international community. The EU has sent its observers for the elections and it will be interesting to see their report.

The West has plenty of clout in Pakistan. The Pakistani military is closely aligned with the American military. There is intelligence sharing with Britain and EU, in addition to the US. As we have seen in the light of recent literature on Kargil misadventure, the US was closely involved in diffusing the situation. The question is, would the Pakistan army undertake a blatant campaign of manipulating the media, political parties, and other institutions; had it perceived a hostile West denouncing it and breathing down its neck?

Interestingly, just as heat on PML-N and the independent media got stronger in Pakistan; there was a brief ceasefire between the Afghan Taliban and Afghan government

One of the arguments being presented is that since Pakistan has moved into the orbit of China post-CPEC, the West has lost its clout in Pakistan. While, the Chinese have been increasing their influence in Pakistan, and have been close allies since the 1950s anyway; it is not at the cost of the influence of Western countries. The US and EU are big trading partners for Pakistan. After all, we still receive economic and military aid from the West. Pakistan’s closeness to China is not a zero sum game and the West still has influence on Pakistani politics and the ways in which the Pakistani state operates.

Interestingly, just as heat on PML-N and the independent media got stronger in Pakistan; there was a brief ceasefire between the Afghan Taliban and Afghan government. It was a small baby step towards peace and is definitely welcome and much-needed. However, there is a strong perception that Pakistan’s army wields tremendous clout over the Afghan Taliban. The US and NATO have used every trick in their bag trying to convince the Pakistan army to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table,sothis long drawn Afghan war can finally end.

Leaked reports suggest that America played a role in bringing back Benazir Bhutto and have her make an adjustment with Pervez Musharraf. With the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the larger than life role played by the army in making decisions on foreign policy issues, including Afghanistan and India; the West knows that they need to deal with only one institution, the Pakistan army. That’s is why every noticeable foreign delegation from the West dashes to Rawalpindi for deliberations.

Pakistan got grey-listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the US played a central role in silencing the few Pakistan-friendly countries when this decision was made. This is the “stick”. However, so far it has had no visible impact on Pakistan’s behaviour and extremist groups are still being “mainstreamed” in these elections. The question is, what carrot has the West offered the Pakistan Army? Could it be the West looking the other way, while the establishment engineers the elections?

The international media has been writing on elections manipulations for the past few months.Now the international and domestic discourse has reached a fever pitch. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has termed these elections the “dirtiest” and “most micromanaged” in history. Yet, Washington, London and Brussels remain quiet. Are Pakistan’s democracy and political liberties being sacrificed at the altar for an Afghan peace brokered through the Pakistan army? Afghans have suffered much more than anyone over the last 40 years and deserve peace more than anyone else. However, any peace prospects achieved in Afghanistan at the cost of democracy in Pakistan will not be sustainable and will be short-lived.

The writer has a social science background and can be reached on Twitter @FoqiaKhan

Published in Daily Times, July 24^th 2018.