Daily Times

According to the Zodiac, July 25 is a day of strong intellectual energies and a powerful time to be born in. Given the feudal tendency to coerce and intimidate voters in the rural areas, even if Pakistanis vote rationally, the country is unlikely to go through an immediate transformation. Given the importance of charisma in a country with inherent feudalism becoming stronger, can the common citizen rationalize the precious casting of votes for someone who will deliver on their promises rather than those promising the moon?

The tragedy is that some of those who will be voted in will come into the market to “sell their services as a Parliamentarian” to the highest bidder, so what does the exercise of electoral votes matter to those who have the monetary ability to make the elected change sides? This only confirms why accountability preceding an electoral exercise is crucial for the democratic process.

These are not normal circumstances, a sense of uncertainty prevails, exacerbated recently by wanton destruction wreaked by terrorist violence in Peshawar, Mastung and Bannu, killing many. This has added to the overall apprehension and made it even more difficult to predict the election results.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) have complained about not getting a level playing field and allege that pre-poll manipulation has occurred. But why don’t they make a formal complaint if they are so sure? Protesting about rigging the electoral process is an old ploy to keep the door open for protest in case election results are not “favourable”. With former PM Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam and her husband Captain Safdar jailed, the PML-N will obviously play the ‘innocent victim’ act. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) took prompt notice about Bilawal being obstructed from campaigning and instructed the Caretaker Punjab government to ascertain the correct facts.

The PML-N has been in trouble for the past year for a number of reasons, not just because of the Sharif family’s legal troubles. For starters the party has been hit by a wave of defections. Legislators and potential electoral candidates have been jumping ship to join other political parties, particularly PTI. Southern Punjab has also gone over to PTI lock, stock and barrel. Always considered to be a tight-knit group many internal ruptures have eroded PML-N internally with divisive intra-party quarrels becoming more and more public. A man of stature like Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan — a party faithful for more than three decades — was forced to openly speak out about his falling out with Nawaz Sharif over the confrontation with the superior judiciary and army. It is well known that Nawaz Sharif runs his party like his personal fiefdom, add Maryam Nawaz’s arrogance and obstinacy and you have leaders across the board being turned off.

Overall PTI stands to win about 90-95 seats while PML-N gets about 50-60. PPP will be in third place, with about 35-36 seats. And 20-25 independents are also expected to be elected

Some of our well known polls are still predicting an outright PML-N victory contrary to the facts, conventional wisdom about ground realities suggests that almost everything points to a significant loss for PML-N July 25. Those electoral candidates who bid PML-N adieu and joined other parties possess independent bases of support that allow them to win elections, party affiliation being secondary. These people garner considerable voter support based on biradari, kinship, tribal and other social ties so when defecting to another political party, a candidate takes their voters with them. However one cannot just write off the PML-N in their Punjabi stronghold, their hardcore diehard supporters will still vote for them come what may.

PTI comes across to the undecided voter as a credible alternative to PML-N Punjab. Under their 100-day development and reform agenda Imran, has vowed to make education, employment and other basic rights accessible to the common man, a Pakistan where all leaders would be held accountable. On July 9 he also unveiled his party’s much-awaited “Road to Naya Pakistan” reiterating his promise to turn Pakistan into a welfare state if voted into power. The detail in the manifesto portrays PTI as a party that stands for an equitable and just society, like an Islamic welfare state. The growing level of unemployment is of paramount importance, particularly among the youth who can be led astray by extremist preachers and the lure of easy money. The groundswell points to the voter giving him a chance to deliver on his promises.

PPP has been reduced into a sub-provincial party restricted to rural Sindh because of its own failings, this is despite a tremendous sustained effort by Bilawal to turn the party around. While voters in interior Sindh are extremely unhappy that PPP has not taken any notable steps to alleviate their suffering, most voters will still vote PPP because Bilawal, rather than Zardari, has taken over the mantle of the Bhutto-Benazir aura.

Overall PTI stands to win about 90-95 seats while PML-N gets about 50-60. PPP will be in third place, with about 35-36 seats. 20-25 independents are also expected to be elected. Asif Zardari will be in the market for them, such is our democratic destiny. Politicians are a highly purchasable commodity, calculations can go slightly wrong here because some of the Upper Sindh GDA candidates will sell like hotcakes. When people talk about a hung Parliament they are not entirely wrong. Add PPP’s 36 seats to PML-N’s 60 and both the reserved seats elected indirectly and the independents come into play.

Balochistan Assembly showed us the reach of Asif Zardari’s illegally acquired money made legal by Musharraf’s NRO. Does anyone believe for one moment that ‘available’ politicians will not be ‘acquired’ to deny PTI forming the government? The critical factor will be the MMA’s 14-15 seats. We all know Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s penchant for greed. Will JI’s Sirajul Haq fall prey to how Zardari’s manipulation? Having won the battle, Imran Khan could well lose the war simply because we will allow illegal wealth looted from our own country to purchase our democracy.

This makes it imperative for PTI to win at least 110 seats. With the reserved seats proportionately allotted with enough independents duly supported by PSP and whoever is not bought out from the highly saleable GDA, Imran Khan should have a sufficient number of NA seats to form a coalition government. To ensure fair play the Caretaker period should extend to 90 days after the elections to carry out full accountability of all those elected (read my article of June 15, 2018 “Justice Delayed, Justice Denied”). Perhaps then this country could see some real change.

The writer is a defence and security analyst

Published in Daily Times, July 18^th 2018.