Daily Times

At last the verdict in the Avenfield reference against Nawaz Sharif and his family was announced by the accountability court on July 6, a day after July 5 — which marks an ominous black day on the national calendar. The judgment sentenced Nawaz Sharif to 10 years in prison and 8 million pounds, his daughter Maryam Nawaz 7 years and two million pounds and Capt (retd) Safdar, his son-in-law, one year rigorous imprisonment respectively.

Those aware of the political and judicial history of Pakistan were not surprised by what was delivered by the judge of the accountability court. But the manner and grounds of the verdict certainly caused much astonishment. Not least was the postponement in announcing the judgment, scheduled initially for 12:30 PM, only to be withheld to be pushed to another hour. The announcement of the judgment was postponed three times, which not only raised brows but also triggered jokes. The funniest among them was that ‘the judge himself was awaiting the judgment to arrive in his court’.

The flimsy grounds provoking the disproportionate harsh sentence befit a judgment of a medieval 11th century court, where the accused’s fate was a foregone conclusion and the pronouncement of the verdict was an ultimatum to non-conformists.

The verdict is lauded by a section adamant to win the power race through malpractices, as a triumph against corruption. One does not need to be a genius to concede that this much used and abused word will neither vanish nor will its practice be abandoned in the follow up to the verdict.

Furthermore, it is not clear how the verdict will contribute to eradicate corruption from a system whose foundation necessitates it as a primary incentive. It is later turned into a deterrent to provide democratic legitimacy cover to a well-entrenched praetorian system.

Notwithstanding the legal lacuna in the judgment, Chaudhry Nisar’s remarks in his address to a public gathering in his constituency the next day provide ample food for thought of the basis of the reference and judgment.

Assuming the role of the Sharif redeemer, Chaudhry Nisar said, “I was trying to save Nawaz Sharif from the eventuality he faced yesterday. If only he (Nawaz Sharif) had paid heed to my exhortations of not confronting the institutions, (a term the establishment uses to counter and truncate the civilian supremacy narrative), he wouldn’t have ended up where he did”. Is it to be presumed that if Nawaz Sharif did not challenge the powers to be or in his own words “turned over the course of the checkered political history” he would neither have lost power nor be facing a 10 year jail sentence?

History shows us that democratic forces often fought long drawn battles in the face of completely unfavourable circumstances and worst political engineering against the anti-democratic forces in the people’s court. But the forces have invariably lost in the courts of law.

Nawaz’s defiance was further bolstered by surviving putsches in the form of orchestrated dharnas. The first verdict of the five judges bench of the Supreme Court on Panama seemed to be a forewarning to shut him up.

Instead, Sharif took the verdict to the streets and his narrative further inflated his popularity. The street response further hardened Nawaz’ stance and for the first time in the political history of the country he took head on the hitherto unchallenged political power and domination of the military establishment.

Thus, a multi-pronged strategy was required to grab the bull by the horns. On the one hand the electables were shuffled to their new positions while on the other the religious extremist ‘assets’ were mobilised irrespective of the high political cost of ensuing domestic chaos and international backlash. They activated, politically mobilised and mainstreamed the very elements they had claimed to be fighting against for over a decade.

The flimsy grounds provoking the disproportionate harsh sentence befit a judgment of a medieval 11th century court, where the accused’s fate was a foregone conclusion and the pronouncement of the verdict was an ultimatum to non-conformists

The already pliant media was further coerced to bend the knee and walk a dotted line while every trick was used to force the candidates to return their party tickets and contest as independent candidates. Yet when the voters remained undeterred to desert the beleaguered PML-N, the sensitive blasphemy issue was also employed in electioneering. The timing of the verdict indicates that all other tricks had so far failed to yield the desired results, the last blow had to be delivered through the judiciary.

However, it remains to be seen how much the accountability court’s verdict impacts the PML-N’s election prospects on July 25, and as a political force in the long run. Apparently, the July 6 verdict could not cow down the defiance of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter. On July 7, a day later, they announced they would be returning from London on July 13 to face the courts and the consequences of the verdict.

Perhaps the move also wards off the ifs and buts inset into the analyses and commentaries of whether Nawaz and Maryam would return to the country or not. Will the PLM-N maintain itself as a coherent force? Will Shahbaz continue to play on both sides of the fence and adopt a clear line, or is it the sunset of Nawaz’ political career?

First, the month long absence of Nawaz and Maryam from the country and election campaign also proved the limits of Shahbaz Sharif as a leader. As many observed, he could not ignite the spirit among workers and build a tempo to the election campaign at par with Nawaz and Maryam. It indicates that minus Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz’ prospects as a crowd puller leader also seem bleak in the near future.

Second, Nawaz Sharif and his party are in a far better position than the gloomy period of post October 12, 1999. Moreover, the resistance he is putting up seems not merely to ascend to the position on the same terms and conditions, otherwise he would not face this situation. Nawaz’ resistance has already niched a place for him in history. And perhaps, his strategy is aimed at history and not the short term gain of conditional power for Maryam or himself. Nawaz Sharif has enjoyed power for a long time, and if his career ends on an imposed nadir point, it will be envious for many as people always remember the end not the beginning. In case of, success both father and daughter will assume an iconic stature.

The writer is a political analyst hailing from Swat. Tweets @MirSwat

Published in Daily Times, July 10^th 2018.