Daily Times

The general elections in Pakistan on July 25 will be very costly for its citizens, and not just in financial terms. Though even if the financial cost is considered, the polls this July will cost more than twice the price of the last two elections in 2008 and 2013 combined. While the elections in 2008 and 2013 had cost Rs 1.85 and 4.73 billion respectively, these elections will cost a whopping Rs 20 billion. Of this amount, after the salaries and other payments to election staff — which amounts to as much as Rs 7 billion — the next big allocation, 3.5 billion, will be used for the purchase and printing of special featured ballot papers to minimise vote frauds. But keeping in view the lack of political maturity among our leaders and the blemished history of our past elections, certainly, it’s imperative to minimize the chances of rigging and vote fraud on polling day, no matter the cost.

When the elections of 2008 and 2013 were being held, there was hope and inspiration in the air; although on the way to the2008 elections Pakistan had to suffer the loss of its top leader, Benazir Bhutto, who was being termed the favourite to win the elections. In 2013, the political atmosphere was beaming with immense confidence in Pakistani democracy as it was going to be the first time in the history of the country when one democratic regime was constitutionally leading to another one.

In a linear evolution of things, the elections this month should have taken our confidence in democracy to the next level. After all, the country is heading for the third general elections after completion of two consecutive democratic regimes. Unfortunately, the ongoing elections have already been marred by pre-poll rigging, especially if one looks at the protestations and reservations of PML-N over its victimization and the denial of a level playing field to its candidates. There have been numerous reports and instances where PML-N candidates have been pressurised by the deep state to desert the party.

Unable to steer the country out of the current quagmire, which has been caused by an over-assertive military establishment and populist judiciary in the last two years, we must be ready for the upcoming democratic tenure to be crippled by constant political brawls in assemblies and on the street

Most of the national and international estimates concede that while PML-N may have had the sympathies of the majority of voters, especially in the crucial province of Punjab, thanks to ongoing pre-poll rigging and anticipated post-poll manoeuvring for coalition building, the party will not be allowed to return in power at least in Islamabad. Interestingly, PML-N’s arch-rivals such as Sheikh Rasheed also concede that his ally, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), will have to make a coalition government in a hung parliament which awaits the country following the upcoming polls.

Now imagine this. According to a report from PILDAT, a Pakistani think tank working on parliamentary development, the National Assembly (NA) costs taxpayers as much as Rs 25.7 million if counted over the 135 days which it met in2016. The daily cost of the Assembly came to Rs 9.5million when counted over the total 365 calendar days of the year. But then these estimates must be outdated now, for the salaries and allowances of NA members have increased to the tune of 146 percent. The cost of the NA’s moots must now be greater than Rs 50 million. Lest we forget, this cost obviously excludes the Senate and Provincial Assemblies.

So, on July 25 after spending Rs 20 billion on elections we will get to a democratic dispensation which will further lighten the taxpayer’s wallets. In return, the people of this country are going to get a coalition government, which will lack a majority in two houses of parliament. This will make it too weak to pass any legislative milestones or to score any achievements in foreign policy. Unable to steer the country out of the current quagmire, which has been caused by an over-assertive military establishment and populist judiciary in the last two years, we must be ready for the upcoming democratic tenure to be crippled by constant political brawls in assemblies and on the street.

Meanwhile, the military establishment will continue to control the national security narrative and foreign policy. Poor relations with India and Afghanistan will keep Pakistan a security state. As has been the case in the past, this approach will leave very little for investment in social development and welfare of the masses. Hence, at the end of 2023, when the tenure of next government will be over, Pakistan may still be struggling with the same problems which have stunted country’s developmental potential and economic growth for years.

The writer is a sociologist with an interest in history and politics. He tweets @ZulfiRao1

Published in Daily Times, July 5^th 2018.