Daily Times

KARACHI: Mirpurkhas has been a stronghold of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), in rural areas, and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), in the urban centre.

However, a key defection from the PPP camp and new electoral alignments are expected to alter the electoral map of the district in the upcoming election.

According to Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), there are 695,807 registered voters in the district’s two national assembly – NA-218 and NA-219 – and four provincial assembly – PS-47, PS-48, PS-49 and PS-50 – seats.

In 2013, PPP had won both NA seats and three out of four PS seats. The fourth, a city seat, was won by MQM. However, analysts maintain the changed political environment may hamper the winning streak of the two parties on July 25. A major factor that may tip the balance against the PPP is its veteran leader Ali Nawaz Shah’s decision to contest as independent candidate. Shah is contesting from NA-218 and PS-48, and he has fielded his son Shuja Shah in PS-49.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML-F) led Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) has withdrawn its candidates in support of Nawaz and his son.

Among the GDA’s notable candidates in the district is former Sindh chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim, who originally hails from Tharparkar.

Meanwhile, internal rifts and Syed Mustafa Kamal-led Pak Sarzameen Party’s (PSP) inroads into the Urdu-speaking voters is likely to weaken MQM’s longtime hold on Mirpurkhas’ urban areas.

Further, Aftab Qureishi’s defection from the MQM and his decision to contest the PS-47 election on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) ticket will also affect the MQM.

A newly-formed Tabdeeli Pasand Party (TPP) is also in the run for elections on several seats in the district.

Here is a constituency-wise map of the upcoming electoral contest in Mirpurkhas.

PS 47 Mirpurkhas-I (Old PS-64):

The constituency comprises Mirpurkhas taluka. Under new delimitations, Taluka Hussain Baksh Marri has also been included in it.

Since 1988, MQM has retained this seat. In 2013, Dr Zaffar Ahmed Khan Kamali won the seat for the party. So far, the party has not announced the name of its ticket holder but it is expected to make a decision between Zafar Kamali or Mujeebul Haq.

PPP has given the ticket to former senator Hari Ram Kishori Lal and PTI has fielded Aftab Qureshi, who has defected from MQM. Mir Shahzad Talpur, the great grandson of Mir Ali Murad Talpur, is contesting as an independent candidate.

Shahid Khaskheli, a local journalist, believes that the presence of sizeable number of Hindu votes will benefit the PPP candidate. He says the Sindhi population in the area is also likely to side with the PPP. “Qureshi’s move to the PTI will split MQM’s vote here, benefiting the Peoples Party,” he says, adding, however, the outcome of talks for an alliance between MQM and GDA may be the only factor tipping the scales against the PPP.

A newly formed Tabdili Pasand Party has also fielded a candidate in the constituency. Zeeshan Marri will be banking on the Marri tribe’s vote bank, though a significant number of Marris in the area have historically been associated with the PPP.

PS-48 Mirpurkhas-II (Old PS-65): In 2013, PPP’s Ali Nawaz Shah had won this seat. However, owing to differences with the current leadership, the former lawmaker who is known in the area as for his companionship with PPP founder Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is contesting as an independent this time.

PPP has fielded Zulfiqar Ali Shah, son of Khadim Ali Shah, a former leader of Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid).

GDA has withdrawn its candidate, Surfraz Junejo, in favour of Ali Nawaz Shah, meaning that election in the constituency will be a contest between PPP and a jiyala of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

PS-49 Mirpurkhas-III (Old PS-67): Like PS-48, election here will also be a one-on-one battle between the PPP and Ali Nawaz Shah.

In 2013, PPP’s Jameel Bhurgri had won the seat. After his death, his brother Noor Muhammad Bhurgri won the by-poll on the PPP ticket. The party has retained Bhurgi as its candidate this year.

Ali Nawaz has fielded his son Shuja Shah against the PPP as an independent candidate, and the GDA has announced to support Shuja.

Mir Nasurrual is contesting as an independent but according to Khaskheli, he won’t pose much of a challenge to Bhurgri and Shuja.

PS-50 Mirpurkhas-III (Old PS-66): Here the contest is between Mir Hayat Khan Talpur of PPP, former MPA; and Arbab Ghulam Raheem of GDA. The TPP has fielded Mir Aijaz Talpur on its ticket.

NA-218 Mirpurkhas-I (Old NA-226): The seat has been retained by PPP’s Pir Aftab Shah Jilani. In 2013, his brother Pir Shafqat Shah Jilani had won on PPP’s ticket, albeit with the support of Ali Nawaz Shah.

This year, the PPP has fielded Aftab Shah’s son Pir Hasan Shah Jilani against Ali Nawaz Shah who is contesting as an independent candidate.

Masood Wassan is the TPP’s candidate. “In previous elections, Pir Aftab Shah has managed to win this constituency but he had Ali Nawaz’s support. This time Ali Nawaz is himself contesting against the PPP,” Khaskheli says.

NA-219 Mirpurkhas-II (Old NA-227): Mir Munawar Talpur, a close relative of PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari, was the MNA from this constituency in the previous term. The party has retained him as its candidate this year as well. He will face Arbab Ghulam Rahim of the GDA.

PTI’s Syed Mumtaz Shah, son of Qurban Shah, is also contesting from this constituency. Shahs have been an arch rival of Ali Nawaz Shah in the past, however, this time they are set to join forces against the PPP because of the seat adjustment between him, GDA, and PTI,” notes Khaskheli.

Published in Daily Times, June 29^th 2018.