Daily Times

The uncertainty regarding the post-election scenario is gradually replacing the uncertainty of whether elections are even going to be held on time or not. Despite the appointment of the caretaker governments, fears persisted for some time about the fate of the elections.

Such fears are the direct outcome of four years of non-stop intrigues and political engineering to hamstring the elected dispensation and, if possible, overthrow it to disrupt the continuity of the democratic process. The role of certain vital state institutions, particularly the higher judiciary since the Panama issue, further compounded these fears.

These covert machinations, some under the cover of ultra-judicial activism, did not bear the desired fruits and are bound to create frustration and anger. Thus, the forthcoming July 25, 2018 elections are turning into a do or die situation for each side. It would be appropriate to hypothesise as to whether this political engineering will continue unabashedly during polling and after the elections.

Among many other instances, the arrest of Qamarul Islam Raja by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) soon after the granting of ticket to him by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to contest against Chaudhry Nisar from NA-59 and PP-10, Rawalpindi, has been interpreted as pre-poll rigging by the beleaguered party.

In the presence of access to multiple sources of information, the prevailing social and political environment has opened a window of opportunity for informed debates on basic human, constitutional, and economic rights. The ECP’s partiality and the ultra vires judicial activism are under severe criticism through those same multiple sources of information, facilitating political education that has the potential to sharpen and shape an alternate political discourse.

The recent social and political dynamics have torn asunder conundrums to challenge the hitherto unchallengeable precepts. Pakistani society is awakening from a long slumber and passiveness to confront traditional immunities and privileges.

A classic example is the PTM’s questioning of the extra-constitutional status and acts of powerful state institutions undermining the concept of citizenry. This new social and political phenomenon not only found acceptability across the board, but also established a precedent of demanding accountability of each state institution.

No longer should the voter be seen as a flock to be shepherded in a specific direction or to be kept tied with personality cult. Two recent precedents, both reported in the South Punjab, a region traditionally in grip of feudalism and Sajada Nasheens (successors to spiritual persons), allude to the beginning of the end of blind following.

Two video clips went viral on social media that calibrate the emerging trend of public accountability by the voters. Confronting the powerful candidates during election campaign might not have happened for the first time, but certainly the uniqueness of the incident is made public through the alternate media.

In one video a voter publicly questioned Sardar Jamal Laghari during his election campaign in DG Khan about his previous performance as representative of the constituency. The second clip showed a group of youths questioning Sikandar Bosan in Multan, not only about what he delivered as a member of the Federal Cabinet and Parliament but also faced embarrassment when the group called him a turncoat. Mr Bosan, who remained part of PML-N’s government till its last day, switched to PTI to contest the forthcoming election on its ticket, which created an uproar among PTI workers and aspirants.

Imran gambled by inducting wholesale electables in the hope of increasing his prospects of ascending to the coveted office of premiership. Imran is bulldozing and imposing his decisions on the charged workers whose imagination of transparency, inter and intra party democratic norms and good governance were fired by him for two decades.

Gone are the days when the geese layed golden eggs. The security establishment is gradually losing its levers to capitalise on its rental and transactional relations. In this changed scenario, only a genuinely elected dispensation would be well placed to negotiate Pakistan’s case abroad

Today these workers are being forced to accept what they were brain washed against. Such blatant political opportunism and clashing of vested interests of PTI’s stalwarts like Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Jehangir Tareen are testing the limits of the party. The sit-ins in front of Imran’s Banigala residence have seriously fractured the party’s position as a serious contender to dislodge the PML-N in the Punjab. Currently, with polling just a month away, if not all, a revolt like situation exists in the majority constituencies.

The PTI’s internal situation and Imran’s rigid position on electables indicate that he is no longer capitalising on his party’s organisational strength, political program or principles and loyalty factors. This is clear negation of his past claims of struggling for these values. Perhaps, he is relying heavily only on the ability of political engineering, promises and assurance by the power to be.

However, the ground realities as mentioned above are different from the past. The political machinations and engineering are not going without public notice which has stirred counter narratives and resistance. Moreover, in the present international and regional scenario, the naked interference in the political process by the establishment further increased the political and economic cost for Pakistan.

As many commentators have predicted, the establishment prefers a hung parliament. If a coalition government is formed, it can ensure its hold on the policy levers of the state. But what will be the cost for Pakistan when the situation, particularly the internal, regional and international, requires a strong Parliament for crucial political consensus (a cobbled together coalition under the king’s party is not synonymous of consensus) to steer the country out of a mounting storm?

Politically and economically, the state paid a heavy price — particularly after the Panama debacle — due to the imposed political uncertainty. The economic indicators already show a downward trend not helped by the ominously looming FATF sword. In these circumstances, a weak coalition government cobbled together through political engineering receiving policy dictates from somewhere else instead of the Parliament will be unable to face the incoming challenges.

Gone are the days when the geese were laying golden eggs. The security establishment is gradually losing its levers to capitalise on its rental and transactional relations in the western capitals. Currently, they only dial Rawalpindi for delivery according to the previous contracts. In this changed scenario, only a genuinely elected dispensation would be well placed to negotiate Pakistan’s case, particularly when it comes to the economy.

Twisting arms to shape the election results for a plaint parliament and government will only create deep internal chasms, causing instability and isolation from the international community that will compound the crises we face.

The writer is a political analyst from Swat. He tweets @MirSwat

Published in Daily Times, June 28^th 2018.