Daily Times

Four weeks from now, one of the many projected scenarios about the electoral outcome in Pakistan will unfolded. Whether it’s the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) or Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) which come out on top, unless either of the two win enough national assembly seats to form the government on its own, we will end up with a weak and ineffective government. Given the fact that PML-N and PTI don’t have any mutual instrument or principle of understanding on rules of the game as PML-N and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) did for most part of the last ten years because of the Charter of Democracy which the two parties signed in 2006, we may see a return of 1990s’ internecine politics. This looks more imminent in case the PTI somehow forms the central government.

However, it won’t be easy for PTI to get the desired results in the elections even though reportedly it has received support from the deep state and the so called ‘electables’ thrown in its lap. If the past offers any hint, we know that in 1988, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) under Hameed Gul had weaved together an alliance of nine parties called Islami Jamhuri Ittehad (IJI) to ensure that PPP was not able to form the government. Not only was IJI presented as a sequel to nine party led PNA from 1977 against ZA Bhutto it also adopted similar strategy of mudslinging and character assassination of the Bhutto women who led the PPP. Yet, with all the support from the deep state, when the elections were held in November 1988, IJI couldn’t get more than 56 seats in a house of 237, while PPP got 94 seats and formed the government, albeit very weak, with the help of its coalition parties.

Should the establishment succeed in keeping the PML-N out of power, Pakistan will have a government too weak to deliver in the spheres of legislation, security and foreign policy. Khan’s obsession with the Sharif’s will only make things worse

Similarly, in 2002 when General Pervez Musharraf ruled as a military dictator, ISI under General Ehtasham Zamir cobbled together a new Muslim League known as the Q-League. It was a party made up of defected politicians mainly from the PML-N to ensure that PML-N wouldn’t win enough seats in the elections to become a threat to the military regime. Towards that objective, NAB was unleashed upon politicians on the pretext of corruption cases and those who turned amenable to the regime were given relief and patronage. Back then the term ‘NAB-Zaday’ was attributed to such dry-cleaned leaders. Although tactically this political engineering worked, it was only to a limited extent. The fact that the PML-N leadership had become hugely discredited for leaving the country following a hush-hush compromise with the military regime on the intervention of brotherly Saudi Arabia, worked in the establishment’s favour.

In the wake of elections in October 2002, even though Q-League managed to get 127 seats — the highest out of all political parties — it was still short of 45 seats needed to claim simple a majority and form the central government. To make up for this deficit, NAB was used again to procure the elected legislators, mainly from PPP. Consequently, over a dozen legislator including Faisal Saleh Hayat, Aftab Khan Sherpao, Raza Hayat Hiraj and Rao Sikandar Iqbal defected from PPP, formed their own party called PPP-Patriots to be initially an ally of PML-Q, only to later merge into it. The consequent coalition government thus formed hardly had any potential or authority to put the country on the road to progress.

From these two instances, it can be seen how difficult it has been for the establishment to get barely acceptable outcomes from its political and electoral engineering. Not to mention that the examples given took place when there was no social media. Despite all its machinations against PML-N, it will be a huge challenge for the establishment to help PTI get close to 90 seats in the National Assembly (NA) in the July 25 polls. But PTI must get 172 to form the central government. So, in an all-favourable scenario, PTI will have to form a coalition government with PPP, MQM, PSP and other smaller parties and last-minute defectors from here and there.

Thus, sadly, while the establishment will have succeeded in keeping PML-N out of power, the country and it’s people will be at a grave loss. Such a coalition government will hardly have enough strength in the NA or Senate to deliver any coveted milestones in legislation, economic development, and national security or foreign policy spheres. The inexperience of Imran Khan and his obsession with the Sharifs will only compound challenge of governance. Consequently, it will be extremely difficult to capitalize on whatever economic growth, improvement in supply of energy and power Pakistan has managed to secure in the last five years.

The writer is a sociologist with interest in history and politics. He tweets @ZulfiRao1

Published in Daily Times, June 28^th 2018.