Daily Times

Election fever is at an all time high in Pakistan. Some parties, like Pakistan Tehreek-I-Insaf (PTI), are already in campaign mode, and others, including incumbent Pakistan Muslim League-Noon (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) are just getting started. The campaigns cannot go into full swing until major parties distribute their National and Provincial Assembly tickets. After ticket distribution, the candidates normally go to their respective constituencies and start their electoral campaigns. Many times, we see that those who did not fulfil their promises in the previous term win again when they should have lost.

The issue of credible commitment is central to the political parties as well as individual politicians. Scholars have come to the conclusion that if politicians know that the public doesn’t consider them to be credible they will not act credibly and will not fulfil their electoral promises. When a credibility-deficient politician starts the electoral campaign the only goal they sets is to get as many votes as possible. They will employ different strategies to lure as many voters as possible towards themselves, and distract as many voters as possible away from their most potent opponent.

In countries like Pakistan, a candidate does not have to secure an absolute minimum number of votes to win but only a number greater than everyone else (only by a margin of one vote) contesting in the same constituency, and there is no requirement of a minimum turnout as well. For example in the 2013 elections, a candidate in a Balochistan constituency won a provincial assembly seat only by securing 544 votes, his closest runner-up got only 95 votes and the voter turnout was only 1.18 percent.

The most important thing to remember is that a candidate running in the elections has a tremendous advantage over an individual voter. The politician’s stakes are very high and they have the resources to get information, which comes at a cost. Comparably, an average voter does not have an incentive to invest in getting information because they think that they only have one vote, which does not make much difference. Voters think that they will not get any extra benefit compared to other voters if they invest in getting the information.

When a candidate starts their campaign,they knows about the credibility of their most potent rivals, the number of these rivals is hardly greater than two.

A candidate does not have to show an absolute level of credibility but only a standard that is greater than their rivals. The goal is to get one more vote than everyone else, and for this our politicians have many tools at their disposa.

Politicians know that the public may not remember the promises that they have not fulfilled. They may even fulfil some promises fully while ignoring the others, but still manage to highlight them anytime they can. However, more so than this, the one thing any politician will emphasise on is their opponents’ shortcomings and problems. There are some cases where people have even taken credit for completing projects that were initiated by their rivals in a previous term.

All political parties have their social media strategies and teams. Many politicians, who ruled Pakistan for the last many years, while ruining its institutions and economy, are presenting themselves as saviours of the nation through a constant social media onslaught

Politicians are also well versed in the ethno religious dimensions of their respective constituencies simply because their job is to interact with society. They know where the fault lines exist and how to exploit them. The sentiments of the public, their main issues, are ignored. If the constituency they are eyeing is run by tribes then they will look towards the elders of said tribes.

Normally, tribes do not disobey their elders so ‘investing’ in those tribal elders through monetary and non-monetary factors, means buying almost all the votes of that tribe. While campaigning,the candidates reassure those elders of all possible benefits including developmental work, jobs, and political backing.

In a society like Pakistan where the public gives a huge symbolic importance to religion and often scrutinises a person’s personal character through the prism of religion, a credibility-deficient politician will not miss a chance to attack their opponent’s personal life. Here religious elders can play the same role as tribal elders, and create problems for the other candidate.

Another tool made available to credibility-lacking politicians is social media. The enormous reach and impact of social media has given these politicians an effective weapon to use in campaigns. Social media is a low-cost mechanism to spread any type of bigotry and lies. Fabricated pictures and video clips can be circulated rapidly to discredit one’s opponents. The public normally lacks the means to gauge the authenticity of what is shared on social media so politicians may share some fake project, which may not exist at all, or claim a project completed by their opponents as their own. A constant barrage of information starts to influence public opinion.

Currently, all political parties have their social media strategies and teams. Many politicians, who ruled Pakistan for the last many years, while ruining its institutions and economy, are presenting themselves as saviours of the nation through a constant social media onslaught.

This is not an exhaustive list of strategies. Many more can be at play depending on the dynamics of the constituencies but these are some of the most frequently used strategies by credibility-deficient politicians. A voter can only make a right voting decision by getting more and more information about their candidates. However, if they see some candidate using any or all of the aforementioned tactics,they can spot the credibility-deficient candidate and then vote accordingly.

The write has obtained a masters degree in Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University and is currently pursuing PhD at LKY School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. Twitter @masoodthinketh

Published in Daily Times, June 27^th 2018.