Daily Times

North Korea recently launched a ballistic missile towards the sea off its eastern coast. Believed to be a modified version of its intermediate-range ballistic missile, Musudan, the shot took off from Banghyon, a town near its northwestern border with China, and flew 310 miles before falling into the sea. Sarcastically narrating, was it really an attempt to mere jolt the new US President?

North Korea has since warned that it could test-launch an ICBM “anytime and anywhere,” in its first challenge to the new US president. Nevertheless, the United States Strategic Command also issued a statement identifying the missile as a medium- or intermediate-range system, which “did not pose a threat to North America.”

The globe continues to question why North Korea speeded up its nuclear detonations? The answer to the question can be wrapped up in the findings primed by John Hemmings, a Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He believes that “North Korea (has done so) in order to gain its regime survival; acceptance as a nuclear power by the US; a peace treaty between the US and North Korea; trade and economic growth on their terms; and Korean unification under Pyongyang’s benign rule.”

Well, North Korea is building up its nuclear and missile program that is causing apprehension worldwide. Its latest missile test triggered a fear of nuclear terror amongst the US and other relevant states. It triggered a flurry of phone calls between the worried leaders of the US, South Korea and Japan. It was actually the plan of the US to install anti-missile defence system in the South that further elevated and evoked concerns in the North.

The test has ignited global resentment with the UN Security Council agreeing to draw up new sanctions against the North while several Western capitals threatened the country of its dire consequences. Nonetheless, the US, Japan and South Korea also requested urgent diplomatic talks on Monday at the United Nations, which prohibits North Korea from engaging in any ballistic missile activities. But it is rather unlikely that the meeting will lead to any serious punishment since it is already under a slew of U.N. and other international sanctions. At the same time, its nuclear missile program has become a reality. Despite all sanctions and warnings, it has been developing their nuclear program. Ironically, nothing has worked so far; neither the UN sanctions nor the unilateral steps taken by the US, Japan and South Korea. Even the entire focus of the US has been on tightening sanctions against the impoverished country, which is already under several sets of UN sanctions.

Sarcastically, the test also raised attention-grabbing queries on the proliferation front. Alarmingly, North Korean nuclear advancements give a clear message to the international non-proliferation regime and, perhaps, undermine the global disarmament efforts. It is taken as a step further towards miniaturisation of its nuclear warheads. Whatsoever, it not only defies the nuclear abolitionists’ demands but also increases the probability of the horizontal proliferation of the nuclear weapons in the region. Consequently, it also threatens to undermine an already fragile security situation. Isolating North Korea here has proved to be counter-productive. However, the ideal solution would be to resolve the issues with a balanced approach of sanctions and diplomatic engagements.

There is a prevailing view amongst the US analysts that India has been covertly helping North Korea in developing its nuclear and missile programs despite the UN sanctions since 2006. Since 2006, the UN has issued five major sanctions against North Korea. According to international reports and the US experts, India has been reportedly involved in training dozens of North Koreans who later took key positions in its sensitive missile programs. Moreover, North Koreans have also received training related to missile and space programs in India for the past two decades — an outcome of which can be seen in the shape of the recent ballistic missile test.

The international community along with the other peace-loving countries is exasperated on North Korea’s growing nuclear aspirations. Likewise, Pakistan has also condemned it; expressing it as against the objective of a nuclear weapons-free Korean peninsula. More precisely, all that Pakistan wants is peace in Korean Peninsula. It is desired that all countries in the region including North and South Korea, Japan, China, and the US manage the situation diplomatically with utmost responsibility.

The international community is concerned about the new security implications for the country in particular and the region in general. China, one of the biggest partisans of North Korea, has also given a strong verdict against the missile launch; saying that it would worsen the situation in Korean Peninsula. Another point to keep in focus is that “Chinese companies are more implicated in North Korea today than they were before, so the Chinese could stand lose on that front if the US tightens sanctions.” But the Chinese will need to be patient and hope that the timing works out so that the diplomatic channel will engage before they are forced to backpedal because of distress in North Korea.

While South Korea and Japan might have legitimate concerns over nuclear movements in the neighbourhood, there is also urgent need to resolve the problem through constructive engagement with the North aimed at addressing its concerns as well. South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the test, the first by the North this year, demonstrated the “maniacal obsession” of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, with developing a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile.

It has been evaluated in the past that the North Korean threat is likely to expand into full-blown nuclear-weapons capability early in the term of the next president, so it could be seen on the screens now. For that matter, the Pentagon had already decided upon THAAD missile defence system, in partnership with South Korea and Japan.

Pragmatically, the test does not mean that North Korea is going to drop any nuclear bomb in the US; instead, the international community is more concerned about the significant escalating enhancement of North Korean nuclear capabilities as each new test results in a more sophisticated expertise and technology than its previous attempts.

There were plenty of opportunities in the past when North Korean leadership expressed its willingness to talk to the world on its nuclear program subject to the lifting of sanctions and the provision of necessary economic assistance. The collaborative approach would have been effective but regrettably, the US preferred to hurl threats on North Korea, aggravating the situation further.

But now North Korea aspires to become the giant of the region by enhancing its nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles. On the other hand, analysts are of the view that in order to carry out nuclear attacks, North Korea would need to miniaturise its warheads so that they can be fitted on a missile for delivery. There still remain reasonable doubts about Pyongyang claims regarding its ability to miniaturise nuclear weapons.

The writer works for the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad and can be reached at beenishaltaf7@gmail.com