Daily Times

Like it or not, Imran Khan has become a symbol of political change in Pakistan. He has followed a classical script, “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” However, since his wedding, Khan has made one mistake after another. Is it because of personal failings and complacency?

As a movement, the greatest challenge for Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI) was to wake up and organise a sleeping people around explicit goals. The strategy was not only to confront the status-co, but also to lay siege to it. To deprive it of oxygen by naming, shaming and mocking its icons. This was achieved through slogans, music, and social media employed by passionate, stubborn, and occasionally brilliant youth who also carved out an alternative political narrative. A spark was needed for the final push; a random moment that connects like a meteorite striking the earth. When we woke up on May 9,2016, Panama Leaks had happened. The rest is history.

There is a mismatch between how Imran Khan approaches politics and how the rest of our politicians do. He offers simple middle class ideas and solutions, which do not change even if he shifts his position. You can never change things by fighting the existing reality. For change, a new model must make the existing model obsolete. Not everyone participates in change. The majority watches while the factions slug it out. At the end, they side with the winning team. Nawaz Sharif’s pleas were bound to fall on deaf ears because all the stakeholders have become disillusioned by a wrecked political system. Khan’s habits (from cricket) of persistence leading to perfection, and patience leading to success (ousting Nawaz Sharif) were bound to bear fruit.

You can celebrate achievements, but this should not mean perishing in a pool of complacency. PTI cannot afford to relax because the job is only half done. The secret behind successful movements is that they are always fighting something. The perception is that a generation of politicians was hired to destroy this country, and there is a dire need to put it back to work. If PTI is already finding it hard, the pain is time-honoured. Stop doubting yourself, have faith, and keep moving forward. “The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the only ones who do”.

You can never change things by fighting the existing reality. For change, a new model must make the existing model obsolete

Imran Khan needs to realise that hope is not a strategy. According to intelligence reports, public surveys and pragmatic calculations, the political field is already set. PTI would get a simple majority at the federal level, a landslide victory in KP, and probably lose in Punjab. This scenario should be enough to cause sleepless nights but Khan’s misplaced optimism and refusal to grow up is giving everyone the illusion of safety. By failing to take remedial action, he could miss a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and potentially condemn PTI to the dustbin of history.

All is not lost, yet. But the fastest way to run out of time is to feel you have enough. It is time to call in the “mechanics”.

Immediate solutions in politics are avoided at all cost. When a situation requires strategic thinking, the leader should take the time necessary to appreciate the dynamics. PTI named most of their candidates first; this stopped some from leaving and got the others protesting, which energised the party. This is a masterstroke if PTI carries out a genuine review of the allocated tickets and dumps those who could lose seats as well as the party’s conventional vote. Politics is hocus-pocus — if you are offered two choices, always try and take the third.

Electioneering is a game. Attack when you seem unable; appear where unexpected. Feign weakness, so that your enemies grow arrogant. Let your plans be as dark as the night; when you act, strike like a thunderbolt. People are hungry and angry, looking for someone to blame. They want PTI to be angry too. No one except TV pundits are interested in a manifesto, 100-day plan or the 11-points in a three-hour-long speech. No landslide election victory was ever achieved on the back of too much detail. Elections are won on core messages (jobs, homes, economy, external threat) and by attacking the opponent’s credibility.

Pawns (party workers) may look weak when the game begins, but their potential is remarkable. If you protect your pawns and they reach the other side of the board, one can even become a queen. PTI could still sweep the elections with the right candidates backed by enthusiastic party workers. They will have to throw caution to the wind though, and plot a countdown to the election-day like a military exercise.

Iraq War was over in a few days despite retired Pakistani Generals predicting months of fighting. General Mattis used a new war maneuver called “Violence of Action” in which you use speed and maximum force to capture the centre – the shortest distance between two points is straight down the middle. I leave the rest for the PTI think-tank to work out.

The writer is a Consultant Psychiatrist and Visiting Professor. He tweets @AamerSarfarz

Published in Daily Times, June 22^nd 2018.