Daily Times

In this age of expanding strife, a bolt from the blue — the phone call made by the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to the Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa — led to the agreement and subsequent implementation of a three-day ceasefire by the Taliban which was the first of its kind since the beginning of the current phase of strife in Afghanistan.

Another statement has now been issued by the US Secretary of State supporting President Ghani’s new offer to extend the ceasefire with the Taliban and begin peace talks. In addition to the usual and oft-repeated proclamations for peace, I find a certain part of the statement extremely meaningful: “We support President Ghani’s offer to extend the ceasefire and begin peace talks. As President Ghani emphasised in his statement to the Afghan people, peace talks, by necessity, would include a discussion of the role of international actors and forces. The United States is prepared to support, facilitate, and participate in these discussions”.

The statement alludes to a discussion regarding the contentious role of the currently-stationed international forces in Afghanistan which, inter alia, implies a possible decision leading to their withdrawal from the war-torn country.

The ceasefire and this latest statement come at a time when there is growing weariness within Afghanistan, as well as among the forces stationed there, regarding the futility of continuing the fighting. There is also a palpable feeling among large segments of the Afghan people regarding the foreign forces having outlived their extended phase of welcome.

This sentiment is also amply visible on the political front. The battle that is ensuing leading up to the presidential elections next year may have this as a principal component of the opposing candidates’ agendas for seeking votes.

A temporary ceasefire covering a limited period of time and a permanent one leading to talks for peace are two different matters which may not necessarily follow each other in quick succession

The political leaderships are clearly divided into two groups: one is demanding the immediate withdrawal of these forces, leaving the Afghans to tackle their own issues, while the other, not opposed to the withdrawal per se, is willing to give it some more time.

Notwithstanding the apparent dependence of the Afghan government on the aid that filters in from the west for survival, there is a broad and credible consensus on the need for pulling out of foreign forces with any disagreement only pertaining to its timing.

The war-weariness across Afghanistan also resonates strongly in this demand for termination of external military presence in the country.

As a powerful reflection of this feeling, the three-day ceasefire has been celebrated throughout Afghanistan. According to reports filtering out, members of Taliban entered Kabul for the first time since they were ousted back in 2001. They were welcomed by cheering crowds, some of them waving the white Taliban flag, others the Afghan tricolour, while some waved both. It was like people welcoming their own folks back home.

The unprecedented scenes were marred by the lingering presence of terror amidst celebrations of peace. A horrible suicide bombing targeted both Taliban fighters and the Afghan Security Forces who were celebrating the ceasefire and Eid together while another one ripped through the Nangarhar provincial governor’s office in Jalalabad. The two suicide attacks resulted in forty dead and numerous wounded, some of them seriously.

With the ground swell for peace returning to a war-ravaged Afghanistan, President Ghani announced that the unilateral ceasefire would continue indefinitely beyond the initial seven-day period. This has since been rejected by the Taliban who have vowed to restart fighting at the conclusion of the three-day ceasefire announced earlier.

A temporary ceasefire covering a limited period of time and a permanent one leading to talks for peace are two different matters which may not necessarily follow each other in quick succession. Barring any back-channel understanding which may have been reached between warring parties, of which chances appear to be extremely slim at this juncture, there was never any likelihood of the Taliban agreeing to a permanent ceasefire which is being sought by the Afghan government and the US.

The inevitability of Pakistan’s relevance for peace in Afghanistan was effectively demonstrated by the US Secretary of State’s telephone call to the COAS which led to the Taliban responding positively to Afghan government’s call for peace during Eid-ul-Fitr holidays. Does this phone call also reflect a shift in the earlier US stance of having received “lies and deceit” from Pakistan?

Simultaneously, by all counts and appraisals, Taliban have been on the ascendant in the last few years and have more ground under their direct control now as well as area where they have ample influence. Consequently, it may be foolhardy to expect them to get to the negotiating table in supersession of their preconditions pertaining to the presence of foreign troops inside Afghanistan. Additionally, they are willing to meet the US representatives to negotiate their withdrawal, but remain adamant in not agreeing to talk to the government in Kabul.

The recent surge of the troops and the accompanying change of tactics in fighting the war by the US forces, resulting in huge collateral damage, have led to a massive upsurge of violence in various parts of Afghanistan. It is against this perpetration that a reaction is germinating in Afghanistan that violence must come to an end.

But, this necessarily will not be in consonance with the terms of the US engagement. As a matter of fact, there is more likelihood of a certain level of consensus emerging between the warring groups, including those within the Taliban and the Afghan government, regarding bringing this to an end without initiating a formal dialogue for peace. The chances of this happening have increased manifold in view of an unprecedented demonstration of bonhomie among the Afghan people across divides, irrespective of whether they supported the Taliban or the Kabul government.

United States and Pakistan may be the likely outsiders in this convergence. Since this ceasefire, irrespective of whether it becomes permanent or not, has given the Afghan people a scent of something they have been passionately seeking for almost forty years, it is well nigh possible that there may be a renewed surge for peace emanating from all sections of the society, and a search for a mechanism to enforce it.

It is time which has assumed more importance than tactics or strategy. The iron is hot for peace now and efforts should be focussed in that direction. All parties to the conflict should grasp this opportunity and work collectively and concertedly for the advent of peace for the war-ravaged people of Afghanistan.

They have lived through blood and carnage for far too long. They have just heard the echoes of peace and are yearning for more of it. Let the world come together in a demonstration of solidarity in making it possible. This is but a small penance they owe to the long-suffering people of Afghanistan.

The writer is a political and security strategist, and heads the Regional Peace Institute — an Islamabad-based think tank. Email: raoofhasan@hotmail.com. Twitter: @RaoofHasan

Published in Daily Times, June 19^th 2018.