Daily Times

The tide looks all set to turn in Afghanistan. And in a good way. For a start, Gen Bajwa was in Kabul for an official visit; his second such trip in nine months. This is to be welcomed. Demonstrating, as it does, pragmatic realism when it comes to bilateral security. This is particularly important given that this is an election year for both countries.

That being said, it was the Taliban who stole the show. This may be no bad thing.

Admittedly, there has been no forward movement on President Ghani’s peace amnesty. But the group has responded to the government’s unilateral Eid ceasefire by calling one of its own. This is an important development; the first of its kind. And signalling that the group is in it for the long-haul — it has called for direct talks with the Americans.

Thus the pressure is on. For Washington not to drop the ball, that is. As it spectacularly did back in 2001 when it side-lined the Taliban from the Bonn Agreement on state-building. Or when, after the fall of Kandahar, also in 2001, those Taliban who surrendered found themselves not part of the political process but shackled up Guantanamo Bay. Having been effectively handed over to the Americans for the right price by opportunistic warlords.

This direct appeal to the US is good news for Pakistan; at least in the near-term. For it effectively takes off the table the ongoing scapegoating of this country for failing to drag the Taliban to the multilateral peace table. Thus there is only one thing for the Americans to do: play ball.

Admittedly, this may in the short-term undermine the premise of Ghani’s peace package that remains conditional upon recognising Kabul as the legitimate Afghan power centre. Yet the unfortunate reality is that the Taliban reportedly control anywhere from 40-60 percent of territory. Simply put, side-lining the Taliban is no longer a viable option.

The US missteps of the past in this regard have heavily influenced Afghanistan’s current trajectory. In other words, not only did these crush any chance of national reconciliation — as an unintended consequence they gave impetus to the Taliban as an anti-imperialist force. All the while lending credence to the latter’s not unreasonable claim of wilful myopia on the part of the world powers that seek to differentiate the struggle against the Soviets from the anti-American jihad. Thus Washington must not let a third opportunity slip through its fingers.

That being said, in the long-term, all stakeholders will have to be included in the peace process. For Afghan stability is a regional issue that impacts not just Pakistan but also Iran, Russia, China and India. Thus Islamabad should facilitate multilateral talks towards this end. Of course, there are still unresolved issues with New Delhi but these do not directly impinge Afghan security quite in the same way as, say, the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear accord.

It is therefore hoped that Washington will do the needful. If that is, it is truly committed to regional peace and security.  *

Published in Daily Times, June 14^th 2018.