Daily Times

The Chinese seem to be a godsend for Pakistan. At a time when Pakistan is increasingly short on friends, China backs us like a brother, protects us like a mother, and funds us like a father. All of which begs the question: why?

The short answer is self-interest. The Chinese certainly appreciate Pakistan for being amongst the first nations to recognise communist China. They also acknowledge the efforts of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in bridging the gap between them and the West. But was this worth $57 billion — the roundabout worth of Beijing’s China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investment? If they are investing this much in Pakistan, what are they expecting in return?

Since the terms of CPEC have remained suspiciously secret, one can only deduce the possible scenarios based on available information.

Firstly, history shows nations which served as strategic transits for other larger nations rarely get promoted to first-world status. If anything, they remained at the mercy of their benevolent creditors. Take for instance the United States (US). They funded the Panama Canal and later carved Panama out of Columbia then invaded it twice. Egypt had a similar experience with The British, who funded the Suez Canal and eventually annexed it. When Egypt tried to nationalise the canal, they too were invaded. This is the worst-case scenario.

Secondly, it is a common practice between superpowers to willingly and knowingly indebt other nations in order to influence them. The book Confessions of an Economic Hitman exposes multiple examples of how the US systematically indebted various nations in order to use them for their own end. That included everything from exploiting their resources to dictating their votes in the United Nations (UN). This is a possibility.

Currently, our national assets are being leveraged to secure exuberant amount of loans, which are being used by the government to implement numerous projects. Since the majority of these projects are neither funded by the National Exchequer and are not executed by local companies either, they are not scrutinised as they should be. As it stands, we are unaware of how well Chinese loans are being utilised or what the payback strategy is

CNN recently published an article titled China using ‘debtbook diplomacy’ to spread its strategic aims in Asia Pacific. As the headline indicates, its author foresees China as intentionally indebting other nations for strategic purposes. They cite the case of Sri Lanka, which recently constructed a very expensive but unsuccessful port with Chinese loans. Flustered with debt, they have handed it over to the Chinese on a 99-year lease.

The article also mentions tiny Pacific island-nations that, to the defiance of all logic, received billions of dollars in loans from China in last few years. The only reasonable explanation is that eventually China will turn those seashores and ports into Naval Bases to exert its military dominance in the region.

The article also states Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable nations of China’s ‘debtbook diplomacy.’ Such fears have led some analysts to call China the next East India Trading Company, which conquered India essentially through clever contracts. There is some merit in this otherwise oversimplified comparison, but the real question we need to ask is, are Pakistanis like their predecessors who naively sold their entire nation to a foreign power centuries ago?

Nonetheless, if there is any nation Pakistan should be in bed with it’s China. They aren’t threatened by our nuclear bomb because they very well know it’s for someone else. They have no interest in promoting any religious ideology inside Pakistan because they have none. They have no interest in ruling Pakistan, because it’s uncharacteristic of their foreign policy thus far. China is its neighbour and the next global superpower. They are also more than capable of assisting Pakistan in solving some of its most pressing problems such as the lack of dams, energy shortages, and obsolete infrastructure.

CPEC has all the potential to revive Pakistan, like the Marshal Plan did for Europe after WWII. This is the best-case scenario but can only happen if Pakistan safeguards its rights and negotiates to ensure maximum benefit.

It starts with transparency. Currently, our national assets are being leveraged to secure exuberant amount of loans, which are being used by the government to implement numerous projects. Since the majority of these projects are neither funded by the National Exchequer and are not executed by local companies either, they are not scrutinised as they should be. As it stands, we are unaware of how well Chinese loans are being utilised or what the payback strategy is. Whether we’re being colonised, exploited, or saved all depends on the terms of our agreements.

The subcontinent has been conquered and pillaged by just about every foreign force in the last five thousand years. First came the Aryans and then the Greeks, Persians, Pashtuns, Mogulsand finally the British.

Pakistan is now a well-armed democracy. Its resources no longer belong to the Sultans or Nawabs or Lords. They belong to the people who must now dutifully defend them.

The writer can be reached on twitter @Khanzada85

Published in Daily Times, June 6^th 2018.