Daily Times

The lingering Afghan turmoil, raging unrest in Arab countries, surging belligerence between Pakistan and India, discomfort between China and USA, and now, adding the soon-to-boil-over simmering cauldron of wrangle between America and Iran over nuclear deal — the world is now becoming a hotbed with prospects of peace being elusive.

The conflict of interests in this region is upsetting the peace and tranquillity. The beleaguered Middle East is the battleground with Iran having its major share in it. Unfriendly with Saudis and hostile towards Israel; Iran harbours a frigid attitude towards USA — the close ally of both Saudi Arabia and Israel. America did not forget the overthrow of the Washington friendly regime of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi in Tehran by Islamist revolutionaries in 1979 and holding the diplomatic staff hostage. The bad blood running deep between USA and Iran has a history.

On 08 May 2018, President Donald Trump unravelled the Iran ‘nuclear deal’ and said; “The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into. The fact is this was a horrible one-sided deal that should have never ever been made. It didn’t bring calm. It didn’t bring peace, and it never will”. Trump opines that Iran’s support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad’s regime in Syria and its ballistic missile programme were not included in the deal.

The ‘nuclear deal’ reached between Iran and 5+1 (USA, China, Russia, France, UK and Germany) in 2015 restricts Iran to only maintain a stockpile of 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium instead of 100,000 kilograms of higher-enriched uranium it once had. Iran can only enrich uranium to 3.67 percent which can be used to fuel a reactor but is well below 90 percent required to make a bomb.

The deal also restricted the number of centrifuges Iran can run and restricted it to somewhat older and slower models. The deal to stay for 15 years with IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) representatives authorized to inspect and see that the deal is not violated. In lieu of ‘nuclear deal’, the crippling economic sanctions on Iran were lifted.

Tehran is in throes again as President Trump has announced of unilaterally pulling out from the agreement. The country is likely to face excruciating sanctions to be imposed by USA. The nuclear deal formally called JCPA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) is still supported by China, Russia and by certain European capitals. European companies have already committed huge investments in different sectors particularly in the hydrocarbon field in Iran ever since the sanctions were lifted in 2015.

However, China could be one of the dependable allies of Iran to continue commercial and trade relations despite re-imposition of sanctions. China is the biggest importer of oil from Iran. As per one account, it imports oil worth about 11 billion dollars a year. The company ‘China National Petroleum Corp’ is likely to replace Total — a French company — as Total has already passed signals of quitting the agreement with regard to developing South Pars gas field amid impending US sanctions. Besides, Chinese companies are building and funding railway lines, Gulf Port of Bushehr and other mega projects.

Russia likes the continuity of JCPA and sees it as an opportunity to refloat its otherwise sinking assertion by re-engaging in the region. European capitals fear the ‘secondary sanctions’ that are likely to be imposed by America on their commercial companies and banking institutions. Another perception held is that the European Union (EU) is likely to mull over a strategy evolving a self-dependent security mechanism instead of following the line of action currently being decided by America.

Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javed Zarif’s recently concluded whirlwind tour of European capitals to convince them to stand by JCPA is perhaps going to prop Iran in this difficult juncture. He met with Federica Mogherini, EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and with foreign ministers of UK, France and Germany in Brussels. EU representatives opine that nuclear deal must stay intact if Iran perfectly complies with its provisions. EU perhaps has genuine fears with regard to likely imposition of ‘secondary sanctions’ by USA. Hence it (EU) may consider invoking “blocking regulation” that would ban European companies from respecting US sanctions. Back in early 1990s, the ‘regulation’ was shown as deterrence over US sanctions on business deals with Cuba.

Iran’s nuclear programme had actually begun with the support of USA. The latter under “Atoms for Peace” programme supplied a test reactor to Tehran in 1967 during the regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi but after Islamic Revolution (1979) under Ayatollah Khomeini the programme was halted.

The present leadership of Iran may face the pressure from hardliners to resume nuclear weapons capable uranium enrichment in case the JCPA is also trashed by rest of the signatory countries.

Meanwhile, continuous agonizing economic sanctions have hamstrung the socio-economic development in country over a period of time; thereby pushing the graph of unemployment unprecedentedly up. Unemployment and a young population are posing a potential pressure on the sitting political leadership of Iran. Protest demonstrations; started on 28 December last year continued till 7 January 2017 across the country, though quelled by the government, carry a hard lesson for the government to learn.

Tehran understands that such public anger is good for the external hands to foment a recurrence. On 28 May, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during his annual interaction; held in every month of Ramzan, faced tough questions from the university students.

The latter questioned the direction of the country and the battered plight of economy generating despondency in youth. Mr Khamenei admitted that Iran has a horde of problems but solution to these is not that easy as a young student thinks. He, however; recognized the importance of ‘freedom of expression’ and said: “Growth of society requires freedom of expression”.

Pakistan should keep itself off from America’s war this time and must continue its friendly relations with neighbours like Iran

The simmering row between USA and Iran would increase tension in the region. Saudi Arabia, Israel and USA would keep mounting pressure on Iran. The regime change appears to be the ultimate aim of the trio. Due to Saudi factor the likelihood of a ripple effect of sectarianism might be felt in Pakistan as well.

The already fragile regional stability will get complicated in the face of on-going bellicosity between Iran and America. Pakistan should keep herself off from America’s war this time and must continue her friendly relations with her neighbour Iran. Pakistan already has India as a hostile neighbour on the eastern border and that is also sitting in Afghanistan fomenting unrest, with connivance of America; to create internal security situation for the country. Pakistan must ensure that Iran with whom she does not have any troubled past has no grouse against her.

Writer is freelance contributor. He blogs at https://malibaloch.wordpress.com/ and can be reached on twitter @M_Abaloch

Published in Daily Times, June 3^rd 2018.