Daily Times

Pakistan’s digital operating system is in need of an upgrade. The model we have been using is not up to the challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. A new era of digital technology has been ushered in and is unfolding at breakneck speed. It has the potential to address critical challenges ranging from food security to finding cures to diseases previously perceived to be incurable.

By 2020, more than 20 billion digital devices will exist, and in order to safeguard data, secure digital protocols are required. In the US, manufacturing involves 9 percent of the work force and contributes 12 percent of GDP, but is responsible for 30 percent of US productivity growth, 60 percent of its exports and 70 percent of private sector research and development.

In the last decade, however, manufacturing has not embraced digital technology and has declined consistently in the United States vis-à-vis other advanced economies. The brunt has been borne by the Small and Medium Enterprises with accompanying long term adverse effects for the wider economy. According to McKinsey Global Institute, the United States can exploit its potential and boost manufacturing output by 20 percent by 2025.

Investment in technology in shale oil in the US has paid dividends and a surge in international oil prices has led to a corresponding rise in operationalisation of shale oil rigs. Pakistan too needs to gear itself to embark in this direction and to invest in digital technology.

We must pause and ask ourselves objectively whether artificial intelligence is overrated and how relevant it is in meeting Pakistan’s needs. A constant worry could be a software malfunction that causes healthcare devices to cease functioning in critical care settings.

As a knee jerk reaction, governments tend to attempt to regulate the transmission of data internally and across physical borders, which negatively impacts segregation of data, and impedes research in areas of energy and health.

Pakistan, sadly, being the world’s sixth populous country, cannot cope with the health demand of its people. A particular school of thought thus advocates delivery of personalised medical care and advice through E-health without building more hospitals and without training medical professionals in large numbers.

The potential downside of digital technology makes one apprehensive about an unprecedented degree of computerisation that may render jobs obsolete, as evinced in telecom and banking sectors

The potential downside of digital technology makes one apprehensive about an unprecedented degree of computerisation that may render jobs obsolete as evinced in the telecom and banking sectors. Certain studies suggest that digitalisation may lead to as much as 50 percent unemployment in Asia’s emerging economies.

The optimist’s viewpoint, on the other hand, is that productivity gains from computerisation predictably lead to a lowering in the cost of production. Furthermore, productivity gains from updated technology in one industry drastically reduce production costs in downstream industries which contributes to increased demand.

Historically, this to some extent rationalises why mechanisation in the production of textiles in the US was complemented by an increase in value added jobs in the supply chain. It is heartening to learn that in 12 developing Asian markets which comprise around 90 percent of the region’s entire employment, mounting demand has adequately compensated for jobs displaced as productivity rose concomitantly.

Analysis further reveals that an increased demand for goods and services is accompanied by an 88 percent rise in employment which translates into 134 million jobs annually. The final say to deploy digital based processing in place of humans remains the prerogative of the employer, moreover.

Pakistan needs to develop new disciplines and occupations in which humans have comparative advantage, because if this scenario does not materialise, unemployment may occur at a large scale.

Global hubs of research in artificial intelligence are restricted to the United States, Europe, and to China, but with the code they use being open source centric, this research work can be accessed internationally. An increasingly complex regulatory framework is settling in the digital industry.

Artificial intelligence can be nurtured but not through a trust deficit. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is due to appear before the European Parliament to respond to allegations of the improper use of millions of users’ data by a political consultancy.

Google also encountered scepticism when it recently updated its news application with efforts as per its announcement, “to replace human editors with machine curators to oversee historically influenced digital platforms and ensure there is no algorithmic abuse, prejudice or censorship.”

The apocalyptic viewpoint of machines taking over continues to nag us. Pakistan needs to replicate successful digital models and embrace digitalisation, albeit in a regulated environment, in order to generate jobs and also to compete and survive in the rapidly evolving international trade and economic scenarios. Otherwise, Pakistan risks being marginalised.

The writer has done his Bachelor of Science in Business and Management from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and is involved in research in the areas of finance and energy

Published in Daily Times, May 27^th 2018.