Daily Times

The ongoing endeavour on a new framework for talks with Afghanistan is gradually advancing in the right direction. Under Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS) both the Afghan and the Pakistani leadership are hopeful that mutual misunderstanding and trust deficit between the two will be done away with. APAPPS has the support of both China and USA. Four rounds of meetings have already been held. Though slow yet steady, the advance in talks under APAPPS appears to be promising.

Afghanistan has been suffering due to the fact that regional and non-regional stakeholders have been investing to win the war, not peace. The other day, National Security Advisor Naseer Khan Janjua, while addressing an international conference ‘Media Opportunities and Challenges’, organised by Associated Press of Pakistan at a local hotel in Islamabad, appositely remarked that no investment has been made to win peace in Afghanistan. Every investment has been made to win the war. Janjua has rightly commented that stakeholders in Afghanistan are trying to win the war.

Ever since the Soviet invasion (1979) of Afghanistan, there has been no peace in Afghanistan. The fluctuating graph of violence played havoc in the country with a serious adverse impact being borne by Pakistan. This global wave of terror has a history starting from the ‘cold war’ era.

Over 70000 innocent lives have been lost in Pakistan, including several thousand security personnel who sacrificed their lives in the line of duty in the ‘war on terror’. The loss of billions of dollars to the national economy of Pakistan is another story.

Yesteryears cold-war Jehadi mantra pushed a sizeable segment of the population to religious extremism. The burden of Afghan refugees’ burden with concomitant ills is a persisting problem here. Pakistan is between two opposing pulls as correctly remarked by Janjua “Taliban accuse us of supporting the US and vice versa. So both are blaming us, who is right?”

Pakistan stands between mounting pressure from both sides. But Afghan quagmire needs to be seen through a different prism. There is clash of interests of the stakeholders — both regional and non-regional. This clash is, in fact, playing as a spoiler. Divergent interests stand clearer after China unfolded her Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as its major component. This pushed America to assert its influence in the region for obvious reasons.

To promote anti-China forces in region, USA moved closer to India — the nemesis of Pakistan. The latter further moved to China. Thus USA, Afghanistan, and India are on the anti-China plank whereas Russia, Pakistan, China — and perhaps Iran also; in view of her ongoing row with America over nuclear deal — are on the same plank. National interest is the driving force for any country to pursue her foreign policy goals. American president announced of pulling out from the nuclear deal signed by his predecessor Obama with Iran. President Donald Trump is certainly going to re-impose sanctions against Iran and the countries having trade and commerce relations with Iran will also possibly face US clamped sanctions. The situation is likely to get more precarious with the passage of time.

In the face of this situation, Iran would also resort to manoeuvres to confront America. Iran is likely to invest in Hazara, Uzbeks, and other likeminded ethnics in Afghanistan. China is to continue pursuing her own interests by advocating transit trade via Gwadar deep sea-port. Russia is unlikely to stop dreaming of re-floating her past glory; hence she is investing in the region to stage a possible comeback. Pakistan being the worst sufferer of instability in Afghanistan for genuine reasons would pursue her interests to the extent that Afghan soil is not used against her. Hence, there is no way out till the stakeholders sit together and agree to invest in peace for the general good of the region.

Permanent peace in Afghanistan is unlikely unless the proxies active in Afghan soil are gagged and neighbouring countries’ concerns are addressed

Permanent peace in Afghanistan is unlikely unless the proxies active in Afghan soil are gagged and neighbouring countries’ concerns are addressed. It is the polarization amongst the stakeholders being exploited by Taliban and other militant outfits.

Pakistan has more harvest and stakes in a peaceful Afghanistan than any other country. A perception held is that Washington intends to stay in Afghanistan for some indefinite period of time or till the other competitors in region are no more posing a threat to her interest. Thus, to stay put in Afghanistan America needs a casus belli. Continual unrest in Afghanistan is one of the cogent reasons for Americans to maintain boots in Afghanistan. Unravelling the nuclear deal with Iran would further cause spasmodic strains in the region with spill over effects in Afghanistan situation. Permanent peace in Afghanistan is thus hostage to non-matching interests of the stakeholders.

Pakistan appears to have genuine grouse that India, her traditional foe; is being introduced and promoted in the region by America. New Delhi’s pronounced presence in Afghanistan and that also to create and multiply problems for Pakistan is highly infuriating for Islamabad. Pakistan’s argument holds well that India did not face the repercussions of the ‘cold war’ and Afghan Jihad phenomenon whereas Pakistan did. Awarding a niche to India in Afghanistan is unjustified.

To bring forward and forge alliance with countries antithesis to China and her allies is the aim of the US in the region. This time, Afghan soil is being re-used on the same pattern as it was used during ‘cold war’ era to thwart communist bloc then led by Russia. And currently Afghanistan is being used by America to combat the forces challenging her global monopoly.

Washington has several fronts to simultaneously deal with: the Middle East war theatre, repercussions of unilateral revocation of nuclear deal with Iran, unpopular decision of shifting the US embassy to disputed Jerusalem and ongoing diplomatic ping-pong with Pakistan. These issues are fraught with both direct and indirect implications rendering permanent peace in Afghanistan elusive. Peace prospects in Afghanistan should not be seen in isolation. Mounting more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan or setting proxies at her and intensive bombing on militant hideouts in Afghanistan are unlikely to lead to a lasting solution to Afghan imbroglio. A bunch of other issues that have bearing on embattled situation of Afghanistan are required to be addressed. American leadership understands that but perhaps some so-called political expediency is the impediment.

Writer is freelance contributor. He blogs at https://malibaloch.wordpress.com/ and can be reached on twitter @M_Abaloch

Published in Daily Times, May 24^th 2018.