Daily Times

On the evening of September 10, 2001, most Americans slept well. No one thought that the next day would change the fate and future of the United States and much of the world as well.  The destruction of New York City’s Twin Trade Towers at the hands of Al-Qaeda prompted the global War on Terror and military interventions into Afghanistan and Iraq that continue nearly seventeen years later.

Over the coming days, if not weeks, America faces three issues with potentially profound consequences when combined and if not properly controlled could approach those of 9/11 in magnitude.  President Donald Trump has already broken and withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  Concurrently, the White House must deal with the prospect of negotiations with North and South Korea on the “denuclearisation” of the peninsula and a possible tariff war with China and the European Union (EU).

To complicate and confound the president’s attention, the war in Syria and Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian involvement in the past election as well as any possible wrong doings by President Trump, his family and associates will not disappear. And the extraordinary interview by new Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani on Fox that revealed presidential fibbing over payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels cannot be helpful, and it goes without saying that it imposes three extra demands on the White House’s already precious allocation of time.  In other words, the makings of a firestorm at home and abroad are real.  The question is, who has the matches to ignite this huge conflagration.

The JCPOA, Korea and the tariff tiffs are all interrelated. After abrogating the JCPOA, what happens next is unclear.  Iran has mechanisms to protest that decision. The sanctions regime is incredibly complicated and will not automatically snap back. How secondary sanctions might affect the EU and the P-5 who are signatories to the agreement is opaque at best.  But these uncertainties will have great impact, especially for China, who may see this as an opening for further economic inroads into Iran. And so far, the White House has not issued a plan for what’s next, now that the JCPOA has been done away with.

Given the president’s long experience in the real estate and television sectors, it is possible that he sees each of these three issues-Iran, Korea and tariffs-as independent and to be solved individually

Similarly, if a trade war is not prevented, China and the EU will retaliate.  But China is vital to the Korean negotiations.  How will those be affected?  History provides some examples.  But none are nearly as complicated given the entangling nature of these three issues.

In 1972, as President Nixon was preparing to go to the Soviet Union to sign two strategic arms agreements, North Vietnam had launched an offensive.  Nixon escalated the bombing campaign and mined Haiphong Harbor with Russian merchant ships alongside the piers. His gamble was that detente was more important to Moscow.  He was correct.

Furthermore, the White House has always been hard pressed to deal with these serious crises.  Bandwidth and time are limited.  Often when a second crisis arises such as North Korea’s hijacking of the USS Pueblo in early 1968 as the Tet Offensive mounted in South Vietnam, it is ignored or deferred because of the necessity of coping with bigger or more immediate problems. Now President Trump has three international ticking time bombs to defuse along with several seemingly radioactive domestic crises.

With a brand new National Security Adviser and Secretary of State, no matter how clever each may be, grasping the details and nuances of each of these three negotiations on the run is close to mission impossible for anyone.  Understanding the possible interconnections and second, third and fourth order consequences is also a daunting task.  And deriving a policy and strategy that can safely navigate between and among a three monster version of Scylla and Charybdis amidst the chaos in the White House over investigations and allegations of criminal activities is worthy of a grand prize.

Given the president’s long experience in the real estate and television sectors, it is possible that he sees each of these three issues-Iran, Korea and tariffs-as independent and to be solved individually.  If that is the case, the chances for a serious or even catastrophic miscue are not zero.  And “success” in one such as honouring Mr. Trump’s campaign declaration that the JCPOA is the “worst deal” ever could induce an explosion in the other two especially if the re-imposition of sanctions sparked a trade war with Europe and China.

Under these circumstances, outside advice will most likely never reach the Oval Office.  The only hope is that someone close to the President will understand that taken together, if mishandled, the nation could be facing another September 10 in slo’ mo’.

The writer is the principal author of Shock and Awe and Distinguished Senior Fellow and Visiting Professor at the US Naval War College. His latest book is Anatomy of Failure — Why America Loses Every War It Starts. He tweets @harlankullman. These views are his and do not represent any institution with which he is affiliated

Published in Daily Times, May 12^th 2018.